Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
339 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

AS OF 1830Z THE PESKY UPPER LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA CONTINUES TO
REMAIN STATIONARY. ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED
FROM SOUTHWESTERN KS INTO NORTHEASTERN NE. SURFACE ANALYSIS
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HAS REVEALED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD. LOW TO MIDDLE 70 DEW POINTS RESIDE ACROSS MOST
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. 15 JUNE 2017 1800Z KTOP
SOUNDING REVEALS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN APPROX
3500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE OUTLOOK
AREA SHOULD BE MINIMAL DUE TO 50 J/KG OF ML INHIBITION ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. RADAR ANALYSIS AS OF 1830Z REVEALS EXPLOSIVE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY OF HAYS, KANSAS. THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THORUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE DISCRETE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO A MCS. MEAN LAYER FLOW IS
TOWARDS THE ESE AT 25-35 MPH. GIVEN THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR (0-3
KM) NEAR 40-50 KNOTS, ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE MCS WOULD
SUGGEST BOWING SEGMENTS. THESE BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
WINDS UPWARDS OF 80+ MPH. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE FOR LARGE HAIL THROUGHOUT THE LIFE CYCLE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA NEAR 05Z
THIS EVENING. ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTETNIAL, HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH TODAY. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 105.

A SECONDARY COLD WILL HAVE ALIGN TOMORROW EVENING WITH SIMILAR
ORIENTATION AS TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT A MOIST BL WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO HEAT INDICIES APPROACHING 100 BY THE AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO TAKE PLACE AFTER 00Z. THEREFORE,
REFER TO THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Run to run model consistency overall continues to suggest Friday
night and Saturday night will see more rounds of convection and
precip.  Small scale details may be dependent on the exact outcome
of convection outflows from Thursday.  That being the case, Friday
night a subtle wave is progged to provide upper forcing for storms to
develop in the late afternoon and early evening time frame over
portions of eastern and southeastern Nebraska into northeastern KS.
As a result, height falls with steep mid level lapse rates will
overspread plenty of instability at the surface.  It will again be
possible, with around 40kts of 0-6km deep layer shear, to see
discrete storms develop initially and then quickly grow upscale
into another MCS feature that should move into portions of
northeastern KS. The focus for storm development will still be
north of I-70 with greatest potential in far northeast KS near the
NE/KS/MO border region.

Saturday night, models continue to prog a stronger wave which is
expected to dig into the Northern and Central Plains.  Stronger mid
level flow will advect atop an active cold front and help to develop
a surface low over south central NE into north central KS region.
This low will quickly deepen and move to the northeast and drag the
cold front into northeastern KS by evening on Saturday.  Instability
combined with deep shear on the order of around 40-50kts will likely
bring storm chances ahead and along the front some of which could be
severe.  This front should quickly push southeast before stalling
out.  Post frontal showers could linger overnight into portions of
Sunday morning.

Latter part of the weekend looks mainly dry with small precip
chances coming off and on by mid week as the upper level pattern
once again becomes more zonal.

Temps during the period still remain hot into the 90s on Friday and
Saturday with heat indices of over 100 degrees likely especially
along and south of I-70.  Temps cool into the 80s by Friday for a
couple days of relief before climbing back into the 90s by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Thunderstorms are expected to traverse the area late this
afternoon and evening. Estimated arrival times are as followed:
MHK- near 23Z, Topeka Terminals- near 01Z. These storms will be
capable of large hail and strong winds. Cigs are expected to
remain VFR, although brief VSBY reduction is likely during the
thunderstorms. Activity should push east of the terminals by 05Z
this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baerg
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Baerg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
339 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-162045-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
339 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the entire outlook area
this afternoon through tonight. By early this afternoon, discrete
supercells will likely develop across central Kansas before
congealing into a complex of storms as it advances into eastern
Kansas. The primary hazards will be large hail and damaging
straight-line winds, with some very large hail and possibly even a
few tornadoes possible with the initial discrete storms over
central Kansas. These thunderstorms should gradually diminish over
eastern Kansas overnight tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Severe thunderstorms are possible in the late afternoon and
evening hours of both Friday and Saturday. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary hazards.

Peak heat indices of 100 to 105 are forecast for much of the area
Friday and Saturday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
426 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             CULVER                  38.97N 97.76W
06/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
457 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     HAIL             4 ENE ADA               39.17N 97.82W
06/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
528 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SE NILES              38.96N 97.46W
06/15/2017  E60 MPH          OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH THIS STORM. ALL
            ITEMS OUTSIDE BLOWN AROUND.

&&

BD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
541 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ESE CARLTON           38.67N 97.26W
06/15/2017  E60 MPH          DICKINSON          KS   PUBLIC

            LOST POWER AND WIND WAS GETTING STRONGER.

&&

BD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
607 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N HOPE                38.73N 97.08W
06/15/2017  E70 MPH          DICKINSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&