Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Topeka, KS

831 
WWUS53 KTOP 190311
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1011 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

KSC045-087-190320-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-170519T0315Z/
Jefferson-Douglas-
1011 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN JEFFERSON AND EASTERN
DOUGLAS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1015 PM CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3874 9506 3874 9523 3942 9546 3942 9518
      3897 9519 3898 9516 3895 9509 3898 9508
      3899 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0310Z 267DEG 54KT 3935 9480 3876 9460 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
636 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tonight)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Focus for tonight will be the threat for severe weather across
northeast Kansas.  This afternoon, a warm front was noted across
east central Kansas oriented from east to west.  Main concern this
afternoon will be if storms begin to develop along this warm front
as the HRRR has been depicting  in model runs.  CAPE near/south of
this boundary is over 3000 J/kg with effective bulk shear values of
50 knots.  During the afternoon hours, the NAM also shows 0-1 shear
along this boundary around 25 knots, with steep mid-level lapse
rates. Any discrete storms forming along this boundary will have the
potential to quickly become supercellular with the main hazards
being large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. If storms do form
this afternoon, exact details for tonight look more unclear as
instability will be weaker and subsidence from storms may act to
alleviate severity later tonight.  For tonight, storms that are
expected to fire up on the dry line located in southwestern Kansas
and extending southward into Oklahoma. Models have been fairly
consistent in having these storms congeal into a line/bow and move
through northeast Kansas this evening. This would bring a main
hazard of widespread wind damage across the area, although hail or
an embedded spin up tornado cannot be ruled out.  Additional
development behind this line is possible bringing another round of
heavy rain to the area, increasing the potential for flash flooding.
 This is especially true in areas in north central Kansas that have
already seen heavy rainfall totals earlier in the week.  With the
potential for more developing showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, a
flash flood watch has been issued for the entirety of northeast
Kansas beginning this afternoon and extending into Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

The vast majority of the long term forecast period forecast effort
focuses on Friday and Friday night severe/flooding potential, with
periods beyond that generally trending toward a model consensus at
this time with minimal expected impacts through the remainder of
the forecast.

For Friday, much of the details will lie in how quickly convection
exits the area early Friday morning. Current indications are that
it will make a substantial eastward push overnight and exit the
region early. If this occurs, it would give much of the forecast
area more time to recharge instability as the true warm front
surges/mixes back north during the day in advance of a strong
upper level trough. Long, clockwise curved hodographs with low
LCL/LFC heights and rather steep lapse rates through the cloud-
bearing layer all point to another day with widespread severe
weather potential. This will include tornado potential across the
warm sector, and the most likely this warm sector will include
much of eastern Kansas with main uncertainty being in the
northwestward extent. There are two potential limiting factors.
1) Early day convection ends late and keeps the boundary layer
stable for much of the day, effectively mitigating instability.
2) Storms develop too close to each other, resulting in continued
hail and damaging wind potential but limiting overall tornado
potential.
Regardless, severe storms are possible with some potential for
another higher-end episode of severe weather. The other concern
will be flash flooding with multiple rounds of thunderstorm again
possible over what is likely to be saturated ground conditions
with elevated stream levels after tonight's storms. WPC has the
area in a moderate risk for excessive rainfall and for good
reason, so have continued the flash flood watch through Friday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

VFR conditions will occur outside of convection through 07Z. MVFR
cigs are expected after 07Z and prior to that with convection.
MVFR and ifr vsbys are expected with storms. Showers along with
isolated tsra are expected at TOP and FOE from 07Z-12Z then again
after 18Z Friday. Also some ifr cigs may move into the MHK area
after 19Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...53

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
226 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-191930-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
226 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon through tonight.
These thunderstorms will be capable of tornadoes, very large hail,
damaging winds and flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional thunderstorms are likely on Friday afternoon. While
some details depend on the exact evolution of storms tonight,
there is increasing confidence that multiple rounds of
thunderstorms can be expected Friday afternoon into Friday night.
These storms will likely be capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, and flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon through
tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
915 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VALLEY FALLS            39.34N 95.46W
05/18/2017                   JEFFERSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            6-10 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN ON
            POWER LINES. POWER OUT IN VALLEY FALLS.

&&

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
915 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

KSZ024-026-039-190245-
Shawnee-Jefferson-Jackson-
915 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN
JEFFERSON...NORTHEASTERN SHAWNEE AND SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

At 914 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles south of Denison, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Valley Falls, Oskaloosa, McLouth, Meriden, Ozawkie, Nortonville,
Winchester, Mayetta and Denison.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3916 9568 3942 9574 3951 9557 3942 9557
      3942 9531 3920 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 238DEG 26KT 3931 9560

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
925 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 SSE OVERBROOK         38.71N 95.50W
05/18/2017  M65 MPH          OSAGE              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HOME ANEMOMETER MEASURED PEAK GUST OF 65
            MPH.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
936 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 PM     TSTM WND GST     CENTROPOLIS             38.72N 95.35W
05/18/2017  E60 MPH          FRANKLIN           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OFFICER NOTED SMALL TREE BRANCHES AND OTHER LIGHT DEBRIS
            NOTED IN WIND GUSTS.

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
949 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0944 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 SW LAWRENCE           38.90N 95.34W
05/18/2017  E65 MPH          DOUGLAS            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

BYRNE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
954 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNW LAWRENCE          38.97N 95.27W
05/18/2017  E60 MPH          DOUGLAS            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ESTIMATED WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.

&&

JP