Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Topeka, KS

656 
WWUS53 KTOP 190234
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
934 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

KSC045-059-087-177-190300-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0058.000000T0000Z-170519T0300Z/
Franklin-Jefferson-Shawnee-Douglas-
934 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...JEFFERSON...EAST CENTRAL SHAWNEE AND
DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

At 933 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles southeast of Meriden to 4 miles west of
Baldwin City, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Lawrence, Valley Falls, Oskaloosa, Tecumseh, Eudora, Centropolis,
Perry, McLouth, Ozawkie, Nortonville, Lecompton, Clinton, Winchester,
Lone Star, Pleasant Grove, Vinland, Williamstown, Perry Lake,
Grantville and Clinton Lake.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 185 and 205.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3897 9506 3859 9540 3870 9546 3880 9549
      3890 9549 3891 9553 3908 9559 3942 9541
      3942 9518 3897 9519 3896 9517 3898 9516
      3897 9513 3897 9511 3895 9509 3898 9508
      3899 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 202DEG 54KT 3916 9552 3875 9527 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
636 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tonight)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Focus for tonight will be the threat for severe weather across
northeast Kansas.  This afternoon, a warm front was noted across
east central Kansas oriented from east to west.  Main concern this
afternoon will be if storms begin to develop along this warm front
as the HRRR has been depicting  in model runs.  CAPE near/south of
this boundary is over 3000 J/kg with effective bulk shear values of
50 knots.  During the afternoon hours, the NAM also shows 0-1 shear
along this boundary around 25 knots, with steep mid-level lapse
rates. Any discrete storms forming along this boundary will have the
potential to quickly become supercellular with the main hazards
being large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. If storms do form
this afternoon, exact details for tonight look more unclear as
instability will be weaker and subsidence from storms may act to
alleviate severity later tonight.  For tonight, storms that are
expected to fire up on the dry line located in southwestern Kansas
and extending southward into Oklahoma. Models have been fairly
consistent in having these storms congeal into a line/bow and move
through northeast Kansas this evening. This would bring a main
hazard of widespread wind damage across the area, although hail or
an embedded spin up tornado cannot be ruled out.  Additional
development behind this line is possible bringing another round of
heavy rain to the area, increasing the potential for flash flooding.
 This is especially true in areas in north central Kansas that have
already seen heavy rainfall totals earlier in the week.  With the
potential for more developing showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, a
flash flood watch has been issued for the entirety of northeast
Kansas beginning this afternoon and extending into Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

The vast majority of the long term forecast period forecast effort
focuses on Friday and Friday night severe/flooding potential, with
periods beyond that generally trending toward a model consensus at
this time with minimal expected impacts through the remainder of
the forecast.

For Friday, much of the details will lie in how quickly convection
exits the area early Friday morning. Current indications are that
it will make a substantial eastward push overnight and exit the
region early. If this occurs, it would give much of the forecast
area more time to recharge instability as the true warm front
surges/mixes back north during the day in advance of a strong
upper level trough. Long, clockwise curved hodographs with low
LCL/LFC heights and rather steep lapse rates through the cloud-
bearing layer all point to another day with widespread severe
weather potential. This will include tornado potential across the
warm sector, and the most likely this warm sector will include
much of eastern Kansas with main uncertainty being in the
northwestward extent. There are two potential limiting factors.
1) Early day convection ends late and keeps the boundary layer
stable for much of the day, effectively mitigating instability.
2) Storms develop too close to each other, resulting in continued
hail and damaging wind potential but limiting overall tornado
potential.
Regardless, severe storms are possible with some potential for
another higher-end episode of severe weather. The other concern
will be flash flooding with multiple rounds of thunderstorm again
possible over what is likely to be saturated ground conditions
with elevated stream levels after tonight's storms. WPC has the
area in a moderate risk for excessive rainfall and for good
reason, so have continued the flash flood watch through Friday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

VFR conditions will occur outside of convection through 07Z. MVFR
cigs are expected after 07Z and prior to that with convection.
MVFR and ifr vsbys are expected with storms. Showers along with
isolated tsra are expected at TOP and FOE from 07Z-12Z then again
after 18Z Friday. Also some ifr cigs may move into the MHK area
after 19Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...53

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
226 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-191930-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
226 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon through tonight.
These thunderstorms will be capable of tornadoes, very large hail,
damaging winds and flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional thunderstorms are likely on Friday afternoon. While
some details depend on the exact evolution of storms tonight,
there is increasing confidence that multiple rounds of
thunderstorms can be expected Friday afternoon into Friday night.
These storms will likely be capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, and flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon through
tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
836 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VALLEY FALLS            39.34N 95.45W
05/18/2017                   JEFFERSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEMI TRUCK AND TRAILER BLOWN OVER AT K4 AND
            K16.

&&

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
849 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

KSZ054>056-058-059-190215-
Coffey-Lyon-Franklin-Osage-Anderson-
849 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...NORTHERN
ANDERSON...OSAGE...NORTHEASTERN COFFEY AND NORTHEASTERN LYON COUNTIES
UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

At 849 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Reading to 4 miles east of New Strawn.
Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Garnett, Osage City, Burlington, Carbondale, Lyndon, Lebo,
Burlingame, Scranton, Waverly, Williamsburg, New Strawn, Quenemo,
Melvern, Reading, Westphalia, Admire, Olivet, Beto Junction, Harris
and Pomona Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 145 and 175.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 143 and 151.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for east central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3886 9570 3827 9515 3805 9564 3864 9610
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 232DEG 44KT 3856 9596 3824 9566

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
854 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SE PAXICO             39.02N 96.09W
05/18/2017  M3.60 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
913 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE DENISON            39.37N 95.58W
05/18/2017                   JEFFERSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
915 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VALLEY FALLS            39.34N 95.46W
05/18/2017                   JEFFERSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            6-10 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN ON
            POWER LINES. POWER OUT IN VALLEY FALLS.

&&

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
915 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

KSZ024-026-039-190245-
Shawnee-Jefferson-Jackson-
915 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN
JEFFERSON...NORTHEASTERN SHAWNEE AND SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

At 914 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles south of Denison, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Valley Falls, Oskaloosa, McLouth, Meriden, Ozawkie, Nortonville,
Winchester, Mayetta and Denison.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3916 9568 3942 9574 3951 9557 3942 9557
      3942 9531 3920 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 238DEG 26KT 3931 9560