River Flood Warning 11, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
941 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

...Tropical Storm Emily Moving Toward the Florida West Coast...

.UPDATE...
Tropical Storm Emily continues to spin just off the Florida west
coast, with its center inside of 20 nm west of the mouth of Tampa
Bay. Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity is confined to
Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties southward and this should continue
to be the case for the next couple of hours, with the majority of the
activity shifting eastward through the day. Observations so far this
morning have shown wind gusts generally in the 30-40 mph range with
highest rainfall totals so far in the 3-5 inch range. The Flood Watch
remains in effect through today with several more inches of rain
possible. The ongoing forecast will continue to be updated through
the day.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly prevailing MVFR/IFR conditions will continue for the next
several hours with brief periods of VFR possible. Waves of showers
and thunderstorms will continue to move across the region as Tropical
Storm Emily continues to move eastward. Wind gusts to 30 knots or
higher will be possible at times. Longer periods of VFR will become
more likely later today.

&&

.MARINE...
Tropical Storm Emily over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to
move eastward through today and tonight, with wind gusts to tropical
storm force possible through the day along with periods of heavy
rainfall and thunderstorms. Conditions will begin to improve later
today and tonight, although increased chances for showers and
thunderstorms will continue for the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  87  77  90  78 /  80  40  50  40
FMY  86  76  89  77 / 100  50  60  30
GIF  86  74  91  75 /  80  40  60  30
SRQ  87  76  89  78 / 100  50  50  40
BKV  87  73  91  74 /  50  30  50  40
SPG  87  78  90  78 /  90  40  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-
     Inland Manatee-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Warning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine
     Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood
     to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...05/Carlisle