Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Tallahassee, FL

528 
WWUS52 KTAE 220648
SVSTAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1248 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

FLC063-133-220658-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0030.000000T0000Z-170122T0700Z/
Jackson FL-Washington FL-
1248 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN JACKSON AND
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 300 AM CST for southeastern
Alabama...and the Panhandle of Florida.

LAT...LON 3074 8562 3078 8562 3100 8537 3100 8525
      3098 8518 3086 8504 3066 8557 3074 8565
TIME...MOT...LOC 0647Z 232DEG 47KT 3094 8524 

$$

30-PULLIN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1021 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

...Scattered severe storms possible overnight in southeast Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Our area is under the eastern end of a southern stream mid- and
upper-level trough with a strong jet streak that stretches across
the CONUS's southern border. This low will deepen overnight as it
digs southeastward into the ArkLaTex. The surface and low level
reflection of this dynamic system lies over the TX-OK border,
but 850 mb winds are surging across TX and eastward along the Gulf
coast. Well ahead of the centers of low pressure, under the
influence of this enhanced wind field is a mesoscale convective
system that is rich with warm, moist, and unStable Gulf air. The
00Z LIX sounding showed MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg, with mid level lapse
rates over 7 C/km and 95 kts 0-6 km shear. Given these extreme
values, SPC has highlighted the area to be effected by this MCS under
a tornado watch with the distinction of a particularly dangerous
situation. This means that significant tornadoes (EF2+) are
possible tonight as well as higher end damaging winds (up to 75
MPH) and large hail (up to 2.5" in diameter). Local radar imagery
shows the bulk of the convection currently stretching across
southern AL, but is expected to fill in across the area outlined
in SPC's tornado watch. Please stay weather aware tonight and make
sure you have multiple methods to receive warning information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [638 PM EST]...

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

By morning Sunday a secondary wave of severe storms is expected to
have moved through the Florida panhandle, southeast Alabama, and
southwest Georgia. By mid-morning and early afternoon, a cold front
will be moving through the Tri-State region and aligning once again
with a quite favorable environment. There's some disagreement as to
just how steep the lapse rates will be, but a fair consensus on the
strength of the wind fields and magnitude of instability. Damaging
winds and tornadoes will be possible in the strongest storms, with
hail being a lesser threat but still possible. The most favorable
region for development along the cold front will be along and east
of a line from Albany through Tallahassee, or east of where strong
storms existed overnight. The threat for severe storms should come
to an end in the late afternoon. A scattering of showers will remain
possible through Sunday night and Monday as the main upper level
system passes through the region, but thunderstorms are not
expected over this period.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Tuesday and Wednesday we will be between weather systems as ridge
builds into the area. With southerly wind returning during this time
a warmup is expected for Wednesday afternoon (highs around mid to
upper 70s). The warmup will be short lived as another cold front is
forecast to move through the WFO on Thursday. Much cooler air will
accompany this front with high temperatures tumbling down into the
50s Friday and Saturday and low temperatures possibly reaching the
freezing level.

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Monday]...

The remnants of this afternoon's squall line lies just southeast of
TLH and VLD. Low cigs remain in place though, and aside from a few
brief breaks to VFR conditions, cigs are expected to remain mostly
MVFR until storms start back up again and cigs and vsbys lower to
IFR or possibly LIFR levels. Our next round of storms are expected
to move S to N late tonight/early tomorrow morning, followed by
another round moving W to E Sunday morning through afternoon.
Strong, gusty winds from the south are expected behind the final
line.

.MARINE...

Southwesterly Advisory level winds will shift westerly or even
northwesterly beginning late Sunday behind a cold front. Behind the
front late Sunday and into Monday sustained winds will near Gale
conditions, with occasional Gale force gusts expected. Seas will
build to around 14 feet well offshore, but even as high as 10 feet
within 20 miles of the Panhandle coast. Advisory level seas are not
expected to completely subside until Tuesday morning.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Several rounds of thunderstorms today and tomorrow will keep RHs
well above critical thresholds and fuel moisture high through the
period, precluding any red flag warning conditions. Elevated
transport and 20 foot winds on Sunday will yield high dispersion
values across much of the region, particularly the western half.

.HYDROLOGY...

Local rivers are starting to rise as rain continues to fall. Rain
totals in Southeast Alabama, Southwest Georgia and Panhandle Florida
are generally 1 to 3 inches with isolated areas of 4 inches as of
Saturday afternoon. Another 2 to 3 inches of rain is likely through
tomorrow. The rivers will be monitored closely as some may reach
flood stage in a couple days. Flood warnings may be issued
tonight or tomorrow when certainty is higher.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   65  73  54  62  42 /  80  90  10  10   0
Panama City   67  71  57  62  47 /  80  90  10  10   0
Dothan        63  71  52  58  41 /  90  70  30  10   0
Albany        63  72  52  58  41 /  90  80  20  20   0
Valdosta      64  74  53  61  42 /  80  90  10  10   0
Cross City    66  74  58  63  43 /  40  90  50  10   0
Apalachicola  68  72  59  63  48 /  60  90  30  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Sunday to 1 AM
     EST /midnight CST/ Tuesday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-
     South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for Apalachee Bay or
     Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...McDermott

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1224 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 AM     FLASH FLOOD      OZARK                   31.45N 85.65W
01/22/2017                   DALE               AL   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODING OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES REPORTED IN OZARK

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1239 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     HAIL             WATERLOO                31.59N 83.47W
01/21/2017  E1.75 INCH       IRWIN              GA   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN WATERLOO

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1257 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ALBANY                  31.58N 84.18W
01/22/2017                   DOUGHERTY          GA   911 CALL CENTER

            7 STREETS REPORTED FLOODED IN AND AROUND ALBANY

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1258 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     HAIL             ALBANY                  31.58N 84.18W
01/22/2017  E0.25 INCH       DOUGHERTY          GA   911 CALL CENTER

            1 INCH HAIL REPORTED IN ALBANY

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
101 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     HAIL             ALBANY                  31.58N 84.18W
01/22/2017  E1.00 INCH       DOUGHERTY          GA   911 CALL CENTER

            1 INCH HAIL REPORTED IN ALBANY

&&

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
120 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     HAIL             2 WNW CRESTWOOD         31.48N 84.00W
01/21/2017  E1.00 INCH       WORTH              GA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON SOUTH COUNTY LINE ROAD

&&

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