Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Tallahassee, FL

799 
WWUS52 KTAE 041447
SVSTAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1047 AM EDT THU MAY 4 2017

FLC073-041456-
/O.CAN.KTAE.SV.W.0153.000000T0000Z-170504T1500Z/
Leon FL-
1047 AM EDT THU MAY 4 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LEON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved into eastern Leon 
County. Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
eastern Leon County.

LAT...LON 3031 8434 3034 8438 3048 8412 3033 8409
TIME...MOT...LOC 1444Z 240DEG 37KT 3043 8413 

$$

25-CAMP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
654 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Friday]...

Periods of rain will occur through the morning today, with
occasional thunderstorms possible. Occasional MVFR cigs and
visibility are likely, with brief IFR/LIFR possible in strongest
storms mainly at ECP, TLH and possibly VLD. VFR conditions should
return during the afternoon, but another brief period of scattered
showers/storms is possible as a cold front moves through this
evening. After this moves east of the area, VFR conditions are
expected on Thursday night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [604 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

This evening's synoptic pattern featured a developing deep trough
over the Southern Plains, and an attendant surface cold front,
extending from an intensifying low over central AR through coastal
TX. However, the low-level synoptic environment east of this cold
front has been significantly disrupted by large cold pools/outflow
boundaries generated by numerous thunderstorm clusters. There was
a weak "wake low" over southeast AL, and a trailing mesoscale
boundary through coastal LA. The 04 UTC RAP/HRRR appeared to have
initialized reasonably well, and forecasts this east-west
oriented boundary to propagate eastward to a position roughly
along I-10 in the FL Panhandle by daybreak.

Based on recent radar trends, the HRRR, and multiple CAMs (most of
which were performing surprisingly well), we think an MCS will
spread east across our forecast area this morning. There is
likely to be sufficient (if not impressive) buoyancy and strong
vertical wind shear for storm organization with this morning's
MCS, mainly in the form of bow echoes posing a damaging wind
threat. The greatest threat will be in our FL zones where storms
may be surface-based (as opposed to more elevated storms in GA
and AL). The presence of the aforementioned mesoscale boundary
suggests at least some tornado threat as well. While more
convection may develop along the cold front later today, it
appears the lower troposphere will have been overturned too much
to support a significant severe threat later today.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The strong surface cold front will continue moving east, and out
of our forecast area this evening, followed by an end to the rain.
Despite this frontal passage, lingering mid-upper level moisture,
as well as mid-tropospheric frontogenesis, will lead to periods
of cloudiness and even some showers on Friday, followed by
clearing Friday night and Saturday as the mid-layer front finally
passes to our east. High temperatures Friday will actually be
below average, in the upper 60s (north) to mid 70s (south). Highs
on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 70s. Low temperatures will
also be below average for a change- in the lower to mid 50s
Friday morning, and in the upper 40s Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

A deep-layer ridge will gradually build over the Southeast next
week. High temperatures will return to average (mid 80s) Sunday,
then above average mid week. Lows will generally be in the 50s.
PoPs will be less than 20%.

.MARINE...

Strong south winds will develop today ahead of an approaching
cold front, with frequent gusts to gale-force (35 knots). Winds
will become west-northwest behind the cold front later today and
tonight, with another period of gale-force gusts Friday afternoon.
Winds and seas will gradually subside Saturday and Saturday
night, with low winds and seas on Sunday. High surf and dangerous
rip currents are expected later today. Tides will only be slightly
above normal, barring any mesoscale features that could drive
tides higher for a brief time.

.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.

.HYDROLOGY...

The consensus QPF for our region for today's storm ranges from 1-2
inches north and west of Tallahassee, to less than inch south and
east of Tallahassee. NWP guidance forecasts PWAT values to be nearly
twice that of the climatological average, and GOES sounder data
confirms this. Thus we expect a narrow band or two of heavier
rain in the FL Panhandle, southeast AL, and southwest GA, where as
much as 6 inches of rain is possible. Because there is only a 15%
probability of exceeding 6 inches of rain (within 25 miles of a
point), we will not issue a Flood Watch at this time. However,
isolated flooding could occur if the rain were to affect a larger
urban area. Today's rain will likely cause sharp rises along some
of our rivers, but most were well below action stage from the
recent dry spell.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   78  51  74  50  77 / 100  40  10  10   0
Panama City   76  57  72  57  74 / 100  10  10  10   0
Dothan        76  50  68  49  75 / 100  10  10  10   0
Albany        76  50  69  48  74 / 100  40  10  10   0
Valdosta      82  52  74  49  75 /  80  60  10  10   0
Cross City    83  56  74  53  76 /  60  70  30  30   0
Apalachicola  78  56  75  55  75 /  90  30  10  30   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for Apalachee Bay or
     Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Fournier
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Lahr
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Fournier

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
929 AM EDT THU MAY 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 AM     TSTM WND GST     APALACHICOLA AIRPORT    29.72N 85.03W
05/04/2017  M54 MPH          FRANKLIN           FL   ASOS

            47 KNOT WIND GUSTS AT KAAF

&&

CAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
949 AM EDT THU MAY 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 AM     TSTM WND GST     ST GEORGE ISLAND        29.66N 84.86W
05/04/2017  M49 MPH          FRANKLIN           FL   MESONET

            49 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED BY PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.

&&

CAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1016 AM EDT THU MAY 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ST GEORGE ISLAND        29.66N 84.86W
05/04/2017                   FRANKLIN           FL   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINE DOWN ON ST. GEORGE ISLAND.

&&

CAMP