Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
622 PM EST Mon Jan 2 2017

.UPDATE...

There are no big changes to the previous forecast. Expect strong
to occasionally severe convection to continue into at least the
first half of the night along with the potential for flash
flooding, especially in portions of southeast AL, the Florida
panhandle, and adjacent sections of SW GA.

&&

.AVIATION...

[Through 00z Wednesday] Poor flying conditions are expected
through tonight with strong to severe convection in the area
ahead of a cold front. Improving conditions are expected behind
the front on Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [334 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A weak shortwave near the MS/AL line assisted in the development of
convection along a warm front in central/northern MS and AL this
morning. It also forced scattered convection across southern MS/AL,
along with convection initiating along a coastal front along the Gulf
coast. There is good consensus that convection that develops along
the Gulf coast will merge with the developing line across
central/southern AL and consolidate across the Tri-State region.
Favorable shear, instability, and lapse rates would favor all modes
of severe weather as well. Hail would be most likely in any
remaining discrete cells, with tornadoes and damaging winds possible
in both discrete or linear modes. A stronger shortwave moving into
the Mississippi Valley this afternoon has an associated squall line
moving out of LA as of 19z. While we may get some shower and
thunderstorm activity from this line, it seems more likely that our
best threat for severe weather will come with the first wave of
storms and that the environment will stabilize enough in its wake
that the squall line will gradually weaken. Regardless of how many
rounds of severe weather we get, the SPC has outlooked part of
southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle in an Enhanced risk for
severe weather, with a Slight risk through southwest Georgia and the
western Big Bend of Florida. Thus, there is a greater than usual
threat for severe weather this afternoon/evening. A tornado watch is
likely a little later this afternoon. In addition to the severe
threat, a threat for flash flooding exists across extreme southwest
Georgia, the Florida panhandle and southeast Alabama. Especially
sensitive are the bordering counties between Alabama and Florida
where up to 8 inches of rain have fallen over the past 36 or so
hours. As of last night there were several road closures in parts of
Walton and Holmes counties. With 1-3" of additional rain possible
and isolated higher amounts doubling that, if it were to be realized
in these locations, more substantial and possibly flash flooding
would be possible. The idea now is that within an hour or so after
midnight, the initial wave of storms will be moving out of our
Georgia counties to the northeast, with a line of showers and
isolated thunderstorms (likely sub-severe) moving into southeast
Alabama and the Panhandle to end the night.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

The heavy rain threat and severe threat will have ended by daybreak
Tuesday. Convection will also end from west to east during the day
with the passage of the cold front. While PoPs will be as high as
likely (60-70%), QPF amounts should be low. A cooler and drier
airmass will filter in late Tuesday with a reenforcement of a colder
and drier airmass behind a secondary cold front Wednesday. After a
brief break in cloud cover, clouds will increase on again on
Wednesday but no rain is expected. High temps will be in the 70s to
around 80 Tuesday and in the upper 60s to lower 70s Wednesday. Lows
will be in the lower to mid 50s Tuesday night and mostly in the
lower to mid 40s Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

The latest global models continue to disagree with the timing and
synoptic set up for our next chance of rain. The ECMWF shows a
surface low developing and traversing across the NE gulf Friday
and off the southeast U.S. coast Friday night with a much colder
and drier airmass arriving on Saturday. The GFS shows a more
potent low pressure system (surface and aloft) moving into and
across the southeast CONUS Friday night/Saturday. Will continue
to blend solutions showing chance for rain both days. Temps will
be below seasonal average, especially max temps, each day.

.MARINE...

Moderate south winds through tonight will veer to the west and
weaken somewhat on Tuesday as a cold front passes through the
region. Winds and seas will possibly increase to advisory levels
by the end of the week into the weekend with the approach and
passage stronger low pressure system.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

.HYDROLOGY...

Four to eight inches of rain has fallen in parts Southeast Alabama,
Panhandle Florida and parts of Southwest Georgia. Another one to
three inches may fall in this area through tonight. Local rivers are
rising quickly. The Choctawhatchee River will reach flood stage near
the Caryville, Geneva, Newton and Bruce points. The Shoal River near
Mossyhead is in moderate flood stage and will likely rise more and
crest a second time as heavy rain returns this evening. Several
other rivers may reach flood stage later this week. The threat for
flash flooding will increase this afternoon/evening as heavy rain
returns to areas that have already received several inches the past
two days. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until late tonight
for Southeast Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and extreme Southwest
Georgia.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   67  80  53  71  46 /  60  70   0   0  10
Panama City   67  75  56  69  48 /  60  60   0   0  10
Dothan        64  76  51  67  41 / 100  30   0   0   0
Albany        65  77  52  68  41 / 100  60   0   0   0
Valdosta      66  80  53  70  44 /  60  60   0   0  10
Cross City    66  80  54  73  48 /  20  30   0   0   0
Apalachicola  68  75  56  71  50 /  40  70   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...Flash Flood Watch until 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ Tuesday for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Holmes-Inland Bay-Jackson-North
     Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ Tuesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch until 5 AM EST Tuesday for Baker-Calhoun-Clay-
     Decatur-Early-Miller-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole.

AL...Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM CST Tuesday for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...McDermott

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
818 PM EST MON JAN 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GANER                   31.08N 86.11W
01/02/2017                   GENEVA             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINE DOWN IN THE WESTERN PART OF GENEVA COUNTY

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
854 PM EST MON JAN 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW CLUSTER SPRINGS   30.85N 86.24W
01/02/2017                   WALTON             FL   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN NEAR HIGHWAY 331 AND
            HIGHWAY 2A

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
901 PM EST MON JAN 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     TSTM WND GST     MARIANNA MUNICIPAL A/P  30.83N 85.18W
01/02/2017  M60 MPH          JACKSON            FL   ASOS

            52 KNOT OR 60 MPH GUST MEASURED AT KMAI

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
909 PM EST MON JAN 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BONIFAY                 30.79N 85.68W
01/02/2017                   HOLMES             FL   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS HOLMES COUNTY

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
936 PM EST MON JAN 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRACEVILLE              30.96N 85.52W
01/02/2017                   JACKSON            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN THE GRACEVILLE AREA

0849 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COTTONDALE              30.80N 85.38W
01/02/2017                   JACKSON            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN THE COTTONDALE AREA

0858 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENWOOD               30.87N 85.16W
01/02/2017                   JACKSON            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN THE GREENWOOD AREA

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1049 PM EST MON JAN 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1019 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W ALBANY              31.58N 84.21W
01/02/2017  M68 MPH          DOUGHERTY          GA   MESONET

            WEATHERBUG STATION AT DARTON STATE COLLEGE REPORTED 68
            MPH GUST AT 1019 PM ET.

&&

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