Alert archive / Illinois / Tornado Watches in 2017

Tornado Watch 513

November 5, 20174 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 5, 2017, 3:50 PM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 5, 2017, 3:50 PM CST (21:50 UTC)
Expired: Nov 5, 2017, 10:00 PM CST
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 2.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 39 counties

Alexander County, IL, Edwards County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Perry County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Saline County, IL, Union County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Gibson County, IN, Pike County, IN, Posey County, IN, Spencer County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Ballard County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Livingston County, KY, McCracken County, KY, Union County, KY, Webster County, KY, Bollinger County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Perry County, MO, Scott County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Wayne County, MO

The radar

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 88 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 60%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 20%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 10%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 80%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 50%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 95%

Warnings issued inside it

4 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 5, 5:39 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Bollinger, Cape Girardeau, Perry	12 min
Nov 5, 7:54 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Alexander, Johnson, Pulaski, Union	25 min
Nov 5, 8:10 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Hardin	20 min
Nov 5, 8:27 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Hardin	33 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 286 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1199 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -20 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 454 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 322 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 382 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 9.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

583 
WWUS20 KWNS 052146
SEL3  
SPC WW 052146
ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-060400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 513
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
345 PM CST Sun Nov 5 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southern Illinois
  Southwest Indiana
  Western Kentucky
  Southeast Missouri

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until
  1000 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely
  Widespread large hail likely with isolated very large hail
    events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms will continue to develop over
southeast MO and spread across the watch area this afternoon and
evening.  Large hail is the main concern, but conditions are also
favorable for a few tornadoes in any persistent supercells.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles northwest of Poplar Bluff MO
to 20 miles north northeast of Owensboro KY. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 511...WW 512...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 5, 6:04 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bond, Champaign, Christian, Clark, Coles, Cumberland and 19 more	2 hr
Nov 5, 11:09 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bond, Champaign, Christian, Clark, Clay, Clinton and 30 more	66 min
Nov 5, 12:35 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Bond, Champaign, Christian, Clark, Clay, Clinton and 24 more	6 hr
Nov 5, 2:51 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alexander, Bond, Christian, Clark, Clay, Clinton and 38 more	114 min
Nov 5, 10:48 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bartholomew, Brown, Daviess, Dearborn, Decatur, Greene and 8 more	57 min
Nov 5, 11:08 AM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Adams, Bartholomew, Blackford, Boone, Brown, Carroll and 44 more	7 hr
Nov 5, 12:36 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Boone, Carroll, Clinton, Grant, Hamilton, Howard and 4 more	54 min
Nov 5, 4:58 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bartholomew, Brown, Clark, Clay, Crawford, Dearborn and 28 more	62 min
Nov 5, 5:31 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bartholomew, Brown, Clark, Crawford, Daviess, Dearborn and 20 more	6 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Illinois, 2017 Tornado Watches in Kentucky, 2017 Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2017 Every tornado watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.