Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2017

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447

August 12, 201728 counties in New York; 34 counties in Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Aug 12, 2017, 2:44 PM EDT for 28 counties in New York; 34 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 12, 2017, 2:44 PM EDT (18:44 UTC)
Expired
Aug 12, 2017, 8:02 PM EDT
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 62 counties

Albany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Adams County, PA, Berks County, PA, Bradford County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Chester County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Pike County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Union County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, York County, PA

The radar

The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 22 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

26 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 12, 2:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYHamilton, Herkimer45 min
Aug 12, 2:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMOneida55 min
Aug 12, 2:54 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMOtsego36 min
Aug 12, 3:03 PM EDTTornado WarningCTPJuniata, Perry57 min
Aug 12, 3:23 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBUFLewis24 min
Aug 12, 3:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPDauphin, Juniata, Northumberland, Perry, Snyder81 min
Aug 12, 3:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMOneida35 min
Aug 12, 3:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMMadison, Onondaga49 min
Aug 12, 3:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChenango, Cortland40 min
Aug 12, 3:35 PM EDTTornado WarningCTPDauphin, Lebanon55 min
Aug 12, 3:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYMontgomery, Schoharie53 min
Aug 12, 3:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPFranklin72 min
Aug 12, 3:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMBradford41 min
Aug 12, 4:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMMadison, Oneida, Onondaga42 min
Aug 12, 4:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMChenango, Otsego39 min
Aug 12, 4:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYFulton, Montgomery, Saratoga, Schenectady45 min
Aug 12, 4:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPLebanon60 min
Aug 12, 4:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPDauphin, Lancaster, York102 min
Aug 12, 4:56 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYRensselaer, Saratoga, Schenectady, Washington31 min
Aug 12, 5:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMOtsego40 min
Aug 12, 5:14 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningALYSaratoga2 hr
Aug 12, 5:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBerks51 min
Aug 12, 5:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYMontgomery, Schenectady, Schoharie65 min
Aug 12, 6:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYAlbany, Saratoga, Schenectady57 min
Aug 12, 6:04 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBGMDelaware, Otsego11 min
Aug 12, 6:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYRensselaer57 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 6.7 hours before the alert went out and 174 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2017-08-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2017-08-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 113 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
609 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
113 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
145 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 12, 1:41 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllegany, Broome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango, Cortland and 12 more2 hr
Aug 12, 5:17 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlbany, Broome, Chenango, Cortland, Delaware, Fulton and 12 more88 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2017Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New York, 2017Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.