Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
402 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving frontal boundary will bring more showers and
thunderstorms into this evening. Later tonight and Sunday,
drier air will slowly build into the region, courtesy of
incoming high pressure. Monday should be rain-free, with near
seasonable temperatures.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of mid afternoon, scattered thunderstorms developing on radar
and some of these have shown indications of being strong so
several warnings have already been issued. Most of the region
excluding western Finger Lakes is under a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch until 9 pm. The overall set up is prefrontal trough
pushing across the region ahead of a cold front. ML CAPES are
maxing out around 1000 j/kg with deep layer shear of 35-40
knots. These parameters are themselves quite good however closer
inspection of soundings indicates warm layer near 600 mb so mid
level lapse rates not especially good. Also, there is a dry
layer just above this. Thus, while we expect continuing storms,
some of which may continue to be severe and produce strong
winds/large hail, this doesn't look to be a major widespread
severe weather event. Storms may also produce brief heavy
rainfall however they should be fast moving and given PWATs
under 1.5 inches, flash flooding does not look to be a big
threat.

As we head through early this evening showers/storms continue
due to forcing from both the surface trough and shortwave energy
aloft moving through aloft and will be most widespread for
areas from roughly I-81 eastward. By mid evening, expect most of
the activity to be winding down as it exits eastern counties
though the actual cold front doesn't move through until
overnight. As the upper trough moves into NY/PA from the west
later tonight, cooling aloft, trapped low-level moisture, and
upslope NW flow over CNY will keep lower clouds over the region,
along with isolated sprinkles or showers. Farther south over
NY's southern tier and NEPA, partial clearing is likely. Lows by
daybreak should be mostly in the lower 60s.

Sunday, morning clouds and a few showers/sprinkles over CNY,
should give way to clearing skies during the afternoon, with
low-level drying and large scale subsidence setting in. For
NEPA, partly-mostly sunny skies are foreseen. Readings Sunday
will be cooler, with afternoon highs generally in the low to mid
70s.

For Sunday night, high pressure moves in bringing clear skies,
light winds and cool temperatures. Lows will be in the 50s.
Valley fog will be possible by morning.
&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scenario continues with a trof over the Great Lakes, weak high
pressure over the area, and deep moisture and convection off to
the south. Little in the way of active weather for the Monday -
Tuesday time period, but with lowered heights aloft and
seasonal heating, isolated showers and thunderstorms possible
each day, with a somewhat better chance on Tuesday as the
surface high retreats and the lakes short waves advances.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Weak ridging on Wednesday will bring a dry day but yet another
short wave will press in from the west for Thursday. This latest
system looks a bit more vigorous and has tapped deeper moisture
from the south. Result will be a better chance of showers and
thunderstorms as the surface low moves through NY. Instability
lingers into Friday as the upper trof lags behind the surface
system. this will keep a chance of showers and isolated storms
in the forecast.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to affect TAF sites
this afternoon into early this evening. Timing wise, the threat
will be between 18-22z for KSYR, 19-23z for KITH/KELM, 20-0z for
KBGM, and 21-0z for KAVP. Generally expect at least brief MVFR
restrictions as storms move through with the chance visbys could
go down to IFR in any heavier storms. Storms move out this
evening. Later this evening into the overnight, there are some
indications that lower clouds could redevelop over portions of
CNY/NEPA. We've advertised some MVFR restrictions after about
06z with the potential for brief IFR restrictions, especially
KBGM. Cigs improve to VFR by midday Sunday.

Surface winds will turn S-SW 8-10 kt for much of today, before
shifting to W-NW this evening around 5 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Tuesday...VFR most of the time. Possible
exceptions are early morning fog (mainly KELM), and the
potential for a few showers/thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday...Primarily VFR.

Thursday...Chance of showers/storms and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...PCF
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...PCF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
301 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

NYZ009-018-025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-
048-072-131915-
Northern Oneida-Onondaga-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-
Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
301 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 447 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NYZ015>017-022>024-131915-
Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-
301 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon ahead of an
approaching cold front. There is the slight chance an isolated storm
could produce strong winds or hail however expect any severe weather
to remain primarily to the east.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
434 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             PETERBORO               42.97N  75.67W
08/12/2017  E1.25 INCH       MADISON            NY   PUBLIC

&&

PCF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
442 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     HAIL             MUNNSVILLE              42.98N  75.59W
08/12/2017  E1.50 INCH       MADISON            NY   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

PCF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
444 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2017

NYZ046-122130-
Otsego NY-
444 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...CENTRAL OTSEGO COUNTY UNTIL 530
PM EDT...

At 444 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Morris, or 8 miles northwest of Oneonta, moving east at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hyde Park, Oneonta, Worcester, Middlefield, Hartwick, Maryland,
Cooperstown, Westville, New Lisbon and Westford.

LAT...LON 4252 7471 4251 7474 4252 7474 4250 7478
      4251 7484 4248 7491 4242 7526 4259 7533
      4280 7467 4276 7467 4263 7463
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 251DEG 36KT 4253 7520

DGM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
445 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2017

NYZ037-122100-
Southern Oneida NY-
445 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...SOUTHEASTERN ONEIDA COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM EDT...

At 444 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
New Hartford, moving east at 60 mph.

Half inch hail and strong wind gusts will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Utica, Kirkland, Paris, Deerfield, Whitesboro, New York Mills,
Yorkville, Clinton, New Hartford and Clark Mills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
minor flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4317 7511 4312 7516 4305 7522 4299 7521
      4299 7536 4313 7540 4319 7511
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 260DEG 50KT 4306 7528

RRM