Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 971

June 8, 201728 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 8, 2017, 7:04 PM CDT for 28 counties in Texas. It was in force for 56 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 8, 2017, 7:04 PM CDT (00:04 UTC)
Expired
Jun 8, 2017, 8:00 PM CDT
In force
56 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
95%
All 28 counties

Armstrong County, TX, Briscoe County, TX, Carson County, TX, Castro County, TX, Childress County, TX, Collingsworth County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Crosby County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Donley County, TX, Floyd County, TX, Gray County, TX, Hale County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hansford County, TX, Hemphill County, TX, Hutchinson County, TX, Lamb County, TX, Lipscomb County, TX, Lubbock County, TX, Motley County, TX, Ochiltree County, TX, Parmer County, TX, Potter County, TX, Randall County, TX, Roberts County, TX, Swisher County, TX, Wheeler County, TX

The radar

The Amarillo radar (KAMA), 46 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 46 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 00:00Z on 2017-06-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 339 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 00:00Z on 2017-06-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 9 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
339 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-31 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2782 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
9 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
190 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

817 
ACUS11 KWNS 090004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090004 
TXZ000-090100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0971
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2017

Areas affected...Portions of the TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 090004Z - 090100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are increasing in intensity across
the TX Panhandle. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats
with this activity. Watch will be needed soon based on radar trends.

DISCUSSION...Isolated convection that has struggled to intensify
most of the afternoon/early evening has recently strengthened along
an outflow boundary from prior thunderstorms in Moore and Hansford
counties in the TX Panhandle. Latest radar trends indicate the
supercell storm in Moore county in particular show the potential for
large to very large (2+ inch) hail, along with a damaging wind
threat. The environment across this region remains favorable for
storm organization, as veering/strengthening winds with height per
KAMA VWP are supporting 40-45 kt of effective bulk shear per 00Z RAP
Mesoanalysis. Supercell modes will be favored with this initial
development. There will be some potential for clustering of this
isolated activity to develop southward along a low-level moisture
gradient across the central TX Panhandle, which would increase the
damaging wind threat through the evening. Based on the latest radar
trends it appears a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed soon.

..Gleason/Weiss.. 06/09/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33530210 34010274 34660293 34960289 35500207 36130160
            36470134 36410015 34170015 33610082 33530210

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 8, 7:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArmstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress and 24 more5 hr
Jun 8, 9:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArmstrong, Bailey, Briscoe, Castro, Childress, Collingsworth and 10 more67 min
Jun 9, 4:58 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBandera, Blanco, Burnet, Comal, Edwards, Gillespie and 10 more3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.