Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 944

June 3, 201711 counties in Michigan; 24 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 3, 2017, 6:58 PM EDT for 11 counties in Michigan; 24 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 92 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 3, 2017, 6:58 PM EDT (22:58 UTC)
Expired
Jun 3, 2017, 8:30 PM EDT
In force
92 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 35 counties

Antrim County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Charlevoix County, MI, Delta County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Mason County, MI, Menominee County, MI, Schoolcraft County, MI, Wexford County, MI, Brown County, WI, Calumet County, WI, Clark County, WI, Door County, WI, Fond du Lac County, WI, Forest County, WI, Green Lake County, WI, Kewaunee County, WI, Langlade County, WI, Lincoln County, WI, Manitowoc County, WI, Marathon County, WI, Marinette County, WI, Marquette County, WI, Menominee County, WI, Oconto County, WI, Outagamie County, WI, Portage County, WI, Shawano County, WI, Sheboygan County, WI, Waupaca County, WI, Waushara County, WI, Winnebago County, WI, Wood County, WI

The radar

The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 64 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2017-06-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 33 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2017-06-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 148 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
33 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-165 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1103 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
148 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
156 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

959 
ACUS11 KWNS 032258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032258 
MIZ000-WIZ000-040030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0944
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0558 PM CDT Sat Jun 03 2017

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Upper MI...western Lower
MI...and eastern/central WI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304...

Valid 032258Z - 040030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind/large hail threat continues
across mainly southern portions of WW 304. Downstream watch issuance
into western Lower MI is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 2250Z, a small cluster of thunderstorms is moving
southeastward along an instability gradient across eastern Upper MI
and northeastern WI. This cluster has produced isolated damaging
wind gusts over the past few hours, and it should remain capable of
isolated strong to locally damaging winds and perhaps marginally
severe hail over the next several hours. VWP from KMQT shows a
veering/strengthening wind profile with height, and 30-35 of
effective bulk shear will continue to promote some storm
organization with the ongoing convective cluster. Farther to the
southwest (across central WI), mid-level flow is weaker per VWP from
KARX, and thunderstorms have remained less organized. An isolated
severe risk should continue across mainly the southern half of WW
304 as storms move southeastward. Downstream watch issuance into
western Lower MI appears unlikely owing to an increasingly hostile
thermodynamic environment with eastward extent.

..Gleason.. 06/03/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...

LAT...LON   44929074 45388994 45758869 45978782 46458711 46158642
            45478512 45138508 44428543 43918597 43598674 43768934
            44519068 44929074

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 3, 3:48 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaraga, Dickinson, Gogebic, Iron, Menominee, Ontonagon57 min
Jun 3, 4:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBaraga, Delta, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron and 3 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.