Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 943
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 3, 2017, 3:48 PM EDT for 6 counties in Michigan; 25 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 57 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 3, 2017, 3:48 PM EDT (19:48 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 3, 2017, 4:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 57 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 31 counties
Baraga County, MI, Dickinson County, MI, Gogebic County, MI, Iron County, MI, Menominee County, MI, Ontonagon County, MI, Brown County, WI, Calumet County, WI, Clark County, WI, Florence County, WI, Forest County, WI, Iron County, WI, Langlade County, WI, Lincoln County, WI, Marathon County, WI, Marinette County, WI, Menominee County, WI, Oconto County, WI, Oneida County, WI, Outagamie County, WI, Portage County, WI, Price County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Sawyer County, WI, Shawano County, WI, Taylor County, WI, Vilas County, WI, Waupaca County, WI, Waushara County, WI, Winnebago County, WI, Wood County, WI
The radar
The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 152 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 154 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 33 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -165 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1103 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 23 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 148 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 156 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
780
ACUS11 KWNS 031949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031948
MIZ000-WIZ000-032045-
Mesoscale Discussion 0943
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Sat Jun 03 2017
Areas affected...Portions of upper Michigan and Wisconsin
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 031948Z - 032045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon,
with a few storms having the potential for damaging winds and a few
instances of large hail. Convective trends are being monitored for
potential watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Gradually increasing forcing for ascent associated with
a passing shortwave trough is yielding isolated convective
development this afternoon across western upper Michigan. Visible
satellite data also indicate growing cumulus underneath mid/upper
clouds over portions of western Wisconsin, aided by weak surface
convergence along/ahead of a cold front. To the south of ongoing
cloud cover, temperatures have warmed into the lower/mid 80s, with
dew points in the lower/mid 60s, yielding upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg
of MLCAPE. Recent KDLH VWP data indicate adequate deep-layer shear,
characterized by relatively straight hodographs. As such, storm
splits and small bowing segments may evolve, with a deepening
boundary layer enhancing the potential for damaging wind gusts.
Additionally, a few instances of large hail will be possible.
Convective trends are being monitored for potential watch issuance.
..Picca/Weiss.. 06/03/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 46509063 46828983 46948844 46568766 46358732 45808714
45508726 44488789 44088813 44038885 44239012 44989126
45869123 46159086 46509063SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 4:15 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Baraga, Delta, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron and 3 more | 6 hr |
| Jun 3, 6:58 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Antrim, Benzie, Charlevoix, Delta, Grand Traverse, Leelanau and 5 more | 92 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.