Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 908

May 28, 20174 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 28, 2017, 7:39 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 96 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 28, 2017, 7:39 PM EDT (23:39 UTC)
Expired: May 28, 2017, 9:15 PM EDT
In force: 96 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 61 counties

Adams County, IN, Blackford County, IN, Boone County, IN, Carroll County, IN, Clinton County, IN, Delaware County, IN, Grant County, IN, Hamilton County, IN, Hancock County, IN, Hendricks County, IN, Henry County, IN, Howard County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Jay County, IN, Johnson County, IN, Madison County, IN, Marion County, IN, Randolph County, IN, Shelby County, IN, Tipton County, IN, Wells County, IN, Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Allen County, OH, Ashland County, OH, Ashtabula County, OH, Auglaize County, OH, Crawford County, OH, Cuyahoga County, OH, Darke County, OH, Erie County, OH, Geauga County, OH, Hancock County, OH, Hardin County, OH, Huron County, OH, Lake County, OH, Logan County, OH, Lorain County, OH, Mahoning County, OH, Marion County, OH, Medina County, OH, Mercer County, OH, Morrow County, OH, Portage County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Richland County, OH, Sandusky County, OH, Seneca County, OH, Shelby County, OH, Stark County, OH, Summit County, OH, Trumbull County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Wayne County, OH, Wyandot County, OH, Crawford County, PA, Erie County, PA, Forest County, PA, Mercer County, PA, Venango County, PA, Warren County, PA

The radar

The Cleveland radar (KCLE), 128 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 164 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 78 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -153 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 755 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 44 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 57 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

213 
ACUS11 KWNS 282340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282339 
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-290115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0908
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Areas affected...Central IN...Northern OH...Northwest PA...Western
NY

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 292...

Valid 282339Z - 290115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 292
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated severe threat continues in and near WW 292, but a
downward trend is expected with time and it appears that the watch
can expire at 00Z.

DISCUSSION...At 2330Z, strong to potentially severe thunderstorms
are scattered from central IN northeastward into northwest PA and
western NY. At this time, the greatest short-term threat should be
associated with small line segments across central/northern IN,
northwest OH, and northeast OH, and also with more isolated cells
over western NY that have a history of producing hail. Convection
will likely persist well into the evening in advance of a strong
midlevel low over the northern Great Lakes, but diminishing
surface-based instability and generally marginal effective shear
should result in a diminishing trend with time. 

Unless there is a short-term uptick in storm intensity, WW 292 can
probably expire at the scheduled time of 00Z, though a marginal risk
of marginal hail and isolated damaging wind may persist for a couple
more hours.

..Dean.. 05/28/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   40618658 41088470 41858164 42777908 42337827 41277932
            41048038 40588212 40388338 40218442 39788526 39318604
            39668662 40618658

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 28, 1:16 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Allen, Benton, Blackford, Boone, Carroll and 36 more	119 min
May 28, 1:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adams, Allen, Blackford, Cass, DeKalb, Elkhart and 17 more	6 hr
May 28, 4:09 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Allen, Boone, Carroll, Cass, Clinton and 24 more	66 min
May 28, 5:46 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Allen, Blackford, Boone, Clinton, DeKalb and 12 more	59 min
May 27, 8:07 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Athens, Gallia, Jackson, Lawrence, Meigs and 4 more	83 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2017 Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2017 Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2017 Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.