Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 883

May 27, 201739 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 27, 2017, 8:07 PM CDT for 39 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 83 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 27, 2017, 8:07 PM CDT (01:07 UTC)
Expired
May 27, 2017, 9:30 PM CDT
In force
83 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 39 counties

Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Carter County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Coal County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Grady County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Logan County, OK, Marshall County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McClain County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Murray County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Payne County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK

The radar

The Norman radar (KTLX), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 53 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2017-05-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 5174 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2017-05-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 91 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
5174 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-10 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1475 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
91 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
119 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.2
Supercell composite
8.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

147 
ACUS11 KWNS 280108
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280107 
OKZ000-280230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0883
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0807 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Areas affected...Central and eastern OK

Concerning...Tornado Watch 279...

Valid 280107Z - 280230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 279 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for all severe hazards continues across Tornado
Watch 279. The coverage of potentially severe thunderstorms is
expected to increase this evening as a cold front moves into the
area.

DISCUSSION...Explosive thunderstorm development has recently
occurred across portions of northeast and southern OK, with
additional development underway across central and southwest OK.
Regional ASOS and OK Mesonet obs, along with radar data, show
several boundaries across the region, with two notable features of
interest being a cold front moving southward into central OK, and a
pre-frontal wind shift near the I-44 corridor, where recent
development has been noted. 

In the short term, the primary convective mode is expected to be
semi-discrete supercells. Extreme instability and sufficient
effective shear (as noted on the 00Z OUN sounding) will support a
threat of all convective hazards. Steep tropospheric lapse rates
will support the potential for very large hail with any discrete
cell. The tornado threat will be limited to some extent by
relatively weak low-level flow, though as the low-level jet
increases this evening from south-central into northeast OK, the
tornado threat will increase with any remaining discrete cells. The
cells currently developing across Lincoln into Creek County and also
Stephens County may also have some increased tornado potential as
they interact with the pre-frontal boundary. 

Later this evening, an increase in convective coverage is expected
along the cold front as it advances southeastward. A transition to
more of a linear or QLCS mode is expected as that occurs, though all
severe hazards will continue to be possible given the magnitude of
instability and shear across the region.

..Dean.. 05/28/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   34389909 35339842 36469674 36859582 36929499 36539472
            35859493 34659584 34199620 33939656 33979701 34019739
            34169781 34219822 34389909

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 27, 7:12 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Cimarron, Texas2 hr
May 27, 9:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Dewey, Ellis, Harper, Roger Mills, Woodward53 min
May 27, 9:39 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBeckham, Blaine, Custer, Dewey, Ellis, Garfield and 9 more4 hr
May 27, 10:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKingfisher, Major, Woodward32 min
May 27, 11:47 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw and 17 more58 min
May 28, 12:06 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Cherokee, Choctaw, Delaware, Haskell, Latimer and 10 more5 hr
May 28, 12:52 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMcCurtain23 min
May 28, 2:53 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore and 6 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.