Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 802

May 20, 201725 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 20, 2017, 3:46 PM CDT for 25 counties in Texas. It was in force for 59 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 20, 2017, 3:46 PM CDT (20:46 UTC)
Expired
May 20, 2017, 4:45 PM CDT
In force
59 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 25 counties

Atascosa County, TX, Bee County, TX, Bexar County, TX, DeWitt County, TX, Dimmit County, TX, Duval County, TX, Frio County, TX, Goliad County, TX, Gonzales County, TX, Guadalupe County, TX, Jim Wells County, TX, Karnes County, TX, Kinney County, TX, La Salle County, TX, Lavaca County, TX, Live Oak County, TX, Maverick County, TX, McMullen County, TX, Medina County, TX, San Patricio County, TX, Uvalde County, TX, Victoria County, TX, Webb County, TX, Wilson County, TX, Zavala County, TX

The radar

The Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 155 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 186 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Corpus Christi, TX at 12:00Z on 2017-05-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2452 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Corpus Christi, TX at 12:00Z on 2017-05-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 88 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2452 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-31 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
634 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
88 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
153 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.7
Supercell composite
8.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

237 
ACUS11 KWNS 202047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202046 
TXZ000-202145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0802
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Areas affected...Portions of south-central TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253...

Valid 202046Z - 202145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253
continues.

SUMMARY...Several supercells persist mainly across western portions
of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 253, with an isolated large hail and
damaging wind threat continuing. A southward expansion in area
and/or an extension in time may be needed for some portions of the
watch prior to its scheduled 22Z expiration.

DISCUSSION...A cold front has made little southward progress across
south-central TX this afternoon, with a very moist and unstable
airmass present to the south of the front. The thermodynamic and
kinematic environment remains favorable for sustained severe
convection, and recent radar imagery shows several supercells across
Frio, La Salle, and Dimmit counties in TX. Isolated large hail and
damaging winds will be possible with this ongoing convection as it
moves southeastward with time. Additional showers have formed across
parts of deep south TX, and if this activity can strengthen, it may
also pose some severe risk given the favorable environment. Latest
short-term guidance continues to suggest ongoing supercells should
develop southeastward off the front over the next several hours into
more of south-central/deep south TX. Depending on radar trends
through 22Z, a southward expansion in area and/or an extension in
time may be needed for some portions of the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch.

..Gleason.. 05/20/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   28290037 29380087 29619982 29589689 28649698 27629760
            27409818 27439954 27579962 27819994 28290037

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 19, 7:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Fisher and 11 more60 min
May 19, 7:44 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBrown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Fisher and 15 more7 hr
May 19, 11:05 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche, Concho and 14 more115 min
May 20, 7:41 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAransas, Atascosa, Bandera, Bee, Bexar, Caldwell and 21 more94 min
May 20, 10:15 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtascosa, Bee, Bexar, DeWitt, Dimmit, Duval and 18 more11 hr
May 20, 12:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Bee, Bexar, DeWitt, Dimmit, Frio and 13 more94 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.