Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 744

May 16, 2017Cowley County, Harper County, Sumner County, Kansas; 22 counties in Oklahoma; 4 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 16, 2017, 9:53 PM CDT for Cowley County, Harper County, Sumner County, Kansas; 22 counties in Oklahoma; 4 counties in Texas. It was in force for 37 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 16, 2017, 9:53 PM CDT (02:53 UTC)
Expired
May 16, 2017, 10:30 PM CDT
In force
37 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
95%
All 29 counties

Cowley County, KS, Harper County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Blaine County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Grady County, OK, Grant County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Kay County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Logan County, OK, McClain County, OK, Noble County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Payne County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Archer County, TX, Clay County, TX, Montague County, TX, Wichita County, TX

The radar

The Norman radar (KTLX), 58 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 2.9 hours before the alert went out and 44 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2017-05-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 768 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 00:00Z on 2017-05-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 232 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
768 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-307 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
953 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
232 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
308 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

848 
ACUS11 KWNS 170254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170253 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-170330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0744
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0953 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Areas affected...south-central KS...central OK...western
north-central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon 

Valid 170253Z - 170330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A replacement watch (likely severe thunderstorm) will be
issued very shortly.

DISCUSSION...A large hail/severe gust risk is forecast for this
evening into the overnight.

..Smith/Guyer.. 05/17/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON   33369924 37339813 37459637 36129668 33309763 33369924

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 16, 7:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Rawlins5 hr
May 16, 7:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Ellis, Ellsworth and 24 more59 min
May 16, 9:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Cheyenne, Clay, Cloud, Decatur, Dickinson and 26 more62 min
May 16, 10:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBarber, Cowley, Harper, Sumner6 hr
May 16, 10:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBarton, Butler, Chase, Comanche, Dickinson, Edwards and 17 more5 hr
May 17, 1:49 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Chase, Chautauqua, Cowley, Elk, Geary and 4 more56 min
May 17, 11:39 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Nemaha66 min
May 17, 12:08 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAtchison, Brown, Cloud, Doniphan, Douglas, Jackson and 10 more7 hr
May 17, 2:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Doniphan, Geary, Jackson, Jefferson and 7 more65 min
May 16, 7:29 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Custer and 9 more61 min
May 16, 7:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBorden, Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho and 35 more8 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.