Mesoscale Discussion 652

Issued

May 5, 2017, 2:28 AM EDT (06:28 UTC)

Expired

May 5, 2017, 4:00 AM EDT

In force

92 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 7 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 06:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Tornado Watch 195May 5, 3:05 AM EDT
• Tornado Watch 196May 5, 6:20 AM EDT

420 
ACUS11 KWNS 050628
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050628 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-050800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0652
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CDT Fri May 05 2017

Areas affected...Central/eastern North Carolina and adjacent
portions of Virginia/South Carolina

Concerning...Tornado Watch 194...

Valid 050628Z - 050800Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 194 continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity has remained mostly weak over the
past few hours, and the potential for substantive further
strengthening any time soon remains unclear.  So, it is not certain
a new severe weather watch will be issued to the northeast of
tornado watch 194 as it expires at 07Z.  However, environmental
conditions remain such that at least low probabilities of damaging
wind gusts, or a tornado or two, will probably linger through the
remainder of the night.

DISCUSSION...The warm sector of the surface cyclone, centered over
the Ohio/Tennessee Valley region, has become seasonably moist (upper
60s to around 70F surface dew points) and remains at least weakly
unstable, ahead of a broken band of thunderstorms now spreading
north northeast of the South Carolina into North Carolina piedmont,
and across the eastern South Carolina coastal plain.  And the
surface cyclone is forecast to continue to deepen as it migrates
into/through the central Appalachians overnight, with a 50+ kt
southerly 850 mb jet expected to shift northeastward across
central/eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia by
daybreak.  Given the strength of the low-level shear, and the
continuing presence of thunderstorm development, there likely
remains at least low probabilities for potentially damaging surface
gusts, and perhaps an isolated supercell or two capable or producing
a tornado, through the remainder of the night.

..Kerr.. 05/05/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...

LAT...LON   36767933 37147782 36917638 36187575 35457586 34547784
            34077920 33997994 34678003 35437970 36197973 36437954
            36767933

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.