Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 474
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 10, 2017, 3:16 AM EDT for 6 counties in Michigan; 32 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 119 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 10, 2017, 3:16 AM EDT (07:16 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 10, 2017, 5:15 AM EDT
- In force
- 119 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 38 counties
Alger County, MI, Delta County, MI, Dickinson County, MI, Marquette County, MI, Menominee County, MI, Schoolcraft County, MI, Adams County, WI, Brown County, WI, Calumet County, WI, Columbia County, WI, Crawford County, WI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Door County, WI, Florence County, WI, Fond du Lac County, WI, Forest County, WI, Green County, WI, Green Lake County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Juneau County, WI, Lafayette County, WI, Marinette County, WI, Marquette County, WI, Menominee County, WI, Monroe County, WI, Oconto County, WI, Outagamie County, WI, Portage County, WI, Richland County, WI, Rock County, WI, Sauk County, WI, Shawano County, WI, Vernon County, WI, Waupaca County, WI, Waushara County, WI, Winnebago County, WI
The radar
The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 62 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -294 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1327 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 52 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 210 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 270 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted.
313
ACUS11 KWNS 100716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100716
MIZ000-WIZ000-100915-
Mesoscale Discussion 0474
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017
Areas affected...southern and eastern Wisconsin into central Upper
Michigan
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 137...
Valid 100716Z - 100915Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 137
continues.
SUMMARY...Local/marginal severe risk -- transitioning toward
primarily hail in most areas -- will persist continue for a couple
more hours across Upper Michigan, and for several more hours farther
south across central and southern Wisconsin.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis and objective analyses reveal a
stable low-level airmass across northeast Wisconsin and into Upper
Michigan, where surface temperatures are currently in the 40s. As a
result, wind risk with bowing segments moving northeastward across
this area continues to diminish. Still, ample elevated CAPE and
favorably strong deep-layer shear will support vigorous updrafts --
and associated/local/marginal hail risk for the next couple of
hours.
Farther south across central and southern Wisconsin, a somewhat less
stable boundary layer is indicated ahead of the advancing cold
front. While gradual surface cooling continues which will further
enhance low-level stability, risk for a locally damaging gust or two
may be possible. With that said however, convection decreases in
coverage with southward extent. While CAM guidance (specifically
HRRR runs) suggests some increase in convective coverage possible
over the next couple of hours, overall risk should remain isolated
-- such that new WW across southern and eastern WI will likely not
be required.
..Goss.. 04/10/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...
LAT...LON 46708781 46848676 46338589 45308685 43818815 42628869
42569001 43029093 43899101 44998910 45878868 46078813
46708781SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 1:01 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Dickinson, Iron, Marquette | 3 hr |
| Apr 10, 12:57 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegan, Berrien, Cass, Kalamazoo, Van Buren | 3 hr |
| Apr 10, 2:48 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allegan, Barry, Berrien, Branch, Calhoun, Cass and 16 more | 8 hr |
| Apr 10, 4:25 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegan, Berrien, Branch, Cass, Kalamazoo, Ottawa and 2 more | 2 hr |
| Apr 10, 7:22 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegan, Barry, Berrien, Branch, Calhoun, Cass and 18 more | 53 min |
| Apr 9, 9:06 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barron, Buffalo, Chippewa, Clark, Dunn, Eau Claire and 8 more | 54 min |
| Apr 9, 10:01 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Buffalo, Chippewa, Clark, Dunn, Eau Claire, Jackson and 3 more | 4 hr |
| Apr 10, 12:32 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Buffalo, Chippewa, Clark, Dunn, Eau Claire and 25 more | 58 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.