Alert archive / Louisiana / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 413

April 2, 201724 parishes in Louisiana; 24 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 2, 2017, 11:37 PM CDT for 24 parishes in Louisiana; 24 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 83 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 2, 2017, 11:37 PM CDT (04:37 UTC)
Expired
Apr 3, 2017, 1:00 AM CDT
In force
83 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 48 counties

Acadia Parish, LA, Ascension Parish, LA, Assumption Parish, LA, Avoyelles Parish, LA, East Baton Rouge Parish, LA, East Feliciana Parish, LA, Evangeline Parish, LA, Iberville Parish, LA, Jefferson Davis Parish, LA, Lafayette Parish, LA, Livingston Parish, LA, Pointe Coupee Parish, LA, Saint Charles Parish, LA, Saint Helena Parish, LA, Saint James Parish, LA, Saint John the Baptist Parish, LA, Saint Landry Parish, LA, Saint Martin Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Vermilion Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, West Baton Rouge Parish, LA, West Feliciana Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Amite County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Hancock County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Marion County, MS, Pearl River County, MS, Perry County, MS, Pike County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Stone County, MS, Walthall County, MS, Wayne County, MS, Wilkinson County, MS

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 00:00Z, 4.6 hours before the alert went out and 115 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Slidell Radar S, LA at 00:00Z on 2017-04-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2436 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Slidell Radar S, LA at 00:00Z on 2017-04-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 298 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2436 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
480 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
298 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
333 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
4.6
Supercell composite
19.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

091 
ACUS11 KWNS 030437
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030437 
MSZ000-LAZ000-030600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0413
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2017

Areas affected...Portions of southern Louisiana and southern
Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 111...113...

Valid 030437Z - 030600Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 111, 113 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging winds and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes will potentially focus over southeastern Louisiana and
parts of southern Mississippi later tonight. A replacement watch may
be considered prior to the 07Z expiration of Watches 111/113.

DISCUSSION...An expansive mesoscale convective system continues late
this evening across the lower Mississippi Valley. While a
considerable precipitation shield over northern Louisiana and
central/northern Mississippi has limited the northward progress of a
warm front, deep/moist southerly flow across the warm sector is
maintaining robust convective elements within the broader system. 

There has been a relative lull in severe reports recently, but a
modest uptick in the potential for damaging winds (and perhaps a
couple line-embedded tornadoes) may occur. With increasing
large-scale ascent associated with an approaching impulse, cells
should organize into a more focused meridional line from
southeastern Louisiana northward into Mississippi. MLCAPE values
around 1500-2500 J/kg will likely support a squall line that
advances towards the central Gulf Coast through the overnight.
Line-parallel low-level shear vectors suggest primarily an
occasional damaging-wind threat with this line. However, the
amplitude of low-level shear may also favor small-scale embedded
circulations. A replacement watch could be considered prior to the
07Z expiration of Watches 111/113.

..Picca.. 04/03/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29829259 30259300 31019224 31749123 32219047 32158888
            31938853 31248864 30678908 30118987 29799051 29699162
            29829259

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 2, 8:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron and 8 more83 min
Apr 2, 8:24 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAcadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron and 10 more6 hr
Apr 2, 9:09 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCatahoula, Concordia, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Livingston, Madison and 8 more2 hr
Apr 3, 1:48 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAscension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Jefferson, Lafourche and 12 more10 hr
Apr 3, 3:59 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJefferson, Lafourche, Orleans, Plaquemines, Saint Bernard, Saint Charles and 6 more2 hr
Apr 3, 6:43 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCPlaquemines, Saint Bernard2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.