Alert archive / South Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 385
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 31, 2017, 12:53 AM EDT for 7 counties in North Carolina; 23 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 31, 2017, 12:53 AM EDT (04:53 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 31, 2017, 3:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 30 counties
Bladen County, NC, Brunswick County, NC, Columbus County, NC, New Hanover County, NC, Pender County, NC, Robeson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Bamberg County, SC, Berkeley County, SC, Calhoun County, SC, Charleston County, SC, Chesterfield County, SC, Clarendon County, SC, Darlington County, SC, Dillon County, SC, Dorchester County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Florence County, SC, Georgetown County, SC, Horry County, SC, Kershaw County, SC, Lee County, SC, Lexington County, SC, Marion County, SC, Marlboro County, SC, Orangeburg County, SC, Richland County, SC, Saluda County, SC, Sumter County, SC, Williamsburg County, SC
The radar
The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Charleston AFB, SC (KCHS), launched 00:00Z, 4.9 hours before the alert went out and 109 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 10 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -124 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 966 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 119 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 201 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
333
ACUS11 KWNS 310453
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310453
NCZ000-SCZ000-310700-
Mesoscale Discussion 0385
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017
Areas affected...Portions of South Carolina and far southern North
Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 310453Z - 310700Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will gradually organize across coastal South
Carolina over the next 2-3 hours, with a potential threat for a few
damaging-wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two.
DISCUSSION...As large-scale ascent related to the main
upper/mid-level trough overspreads the southeast U.S. coast tonight,
thunderstorms should increase in coverage over parts of
central/coastal South Carolina. Over the next several hours, a weak
frontal boundary, currently stretching from the SC/GA border
east/southeastward to the central SC coast, will slowly advance
northeast in tandem with a strengthening low-level mass response. To
the south of this boundary, modest surface moistening (e.g., dew
points rising into the mid/upper 60s) across eastern SC will combine
with cooling aloft to produce MLCAPE values upwards of 500-1000
J/kg. In addition, as the trough approaches from the west,
south/southwesterly low/mid-level flow will strengthen and veer with
height, enhancing effective storm-relative helicity, especially in
the vicinity of the front/confluence boundary. Considering the
relatively moist and weakly unstable nature of the environment, more
vigorous/organized convection late tonight may support spotty
damaging winds and/or a couple tornadoes. While uncertainty remains
with regards to the timing and overall coverage of stronger
convection, enough potential exists that trends will be monitored
for possible watch issuance within the next 2-3 hours.
..Picca/Edwards.. 03/31/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 32897914 32697982 33008077 33678181 33918195 34368129
34938021 35027931 34807824 34357760 33747778 32897914SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 9:57 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Brunswick, Camden, Carteret and 31 more | 2 hr |
| Mar 31, 2:08 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Caswell, Davidson, Davie, Durham, Forsyth and 13 more | 67 min |
| Mar 31, 3:54 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Gates, Granville and 8 more | 6 hr |
| Mar 31, 6:11 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Gates, Hertford and 3 more | 94 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.