Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 155

February 7, 2017Wayne County, Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 7, 2017, 5:39 PM CST for Wayne County, Mississippi. It was in force for 96 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 7, 2017, 5:39 PM CST (23:39 UTC)
Expired
Feb 7, 2017, 7:15 PM CST
In force
96 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

County Wayne County, MS

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2017-02-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 442 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2017-02-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 241 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
442 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-42 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
583 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
241 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
231 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
2.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

612 
ACUS11 KWNS 072340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072339 
ALZ000-MSZ000-080115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0155
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0539 PM CST Tue Feb 07 2017

Areas affected...A small part of southeast MS and southwest AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 072339Z - 080115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A localized severe risk may spread southeastward across
parts of the area during the next couple of hours. The anticipated
eventual decrease in severe risk and limited spatial extent of this
potential are presently expected to preclude Watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A couple of ongoing supercell storms (with recent
tornado and severe hail reports) in east-central MS are expected to
continue spreading southeastward into the early evening hours.
Large-scale subsidence, combined with eventual nocturnal
stabilization of the boundary layer, should tend to restrict the
temporal duration of the severe risk. Nevertheless, well-established
dynamic perturbation pressure gradient forces attendant to the
ongoing rotating updrafts may allow sustenance of this activity for
a couple more hours. Sufficient buoyancy/shear will exist for all
severe hazards in the short term on an isolated/relatively brief
basis.

..Cohen/Hart.. 02/07/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON   31528882 31808894 31898844 31818809 31448817 31308850
            31528882

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 6, 10:59 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCoahoma, DeSoto, Panola, Quitman, Tallahatchie, Tate and 1 more9 hr
Feb 7, 5:59 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Amite, Claiborne, Clarke, Copiah, Covington and 28 more2 hr
Feb 7, 7:28 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlcorn, Benton, DeSoto, Marshall, Tate, Tippah and 1 more2 hr
Feb 7, 7:54 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCAdams, Amite, Claiborne, Clarke, Copiah, Covington and 34 more11 hr
Feb 7, 10:18 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Amite, Claiborne, Copiah, Covington, Forrest and 26 more117 min
Feb 7, 12:22 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAttala, Calhoun, Carroll, Chickasaw, Choctaw, Clay and 12 more2 hr
Feb 7, 12:56 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClarke, Covington, Forrest, George, Greene, Hancock and 18 more64 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.