Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 1306

July 13, 201716 counties in New Jersey; 12 counties in New York; 17 counties in Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 13, 2017, 4:43 PM EDT for 16 counties in New Jersey; 12 counties in New York; 17 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 62 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 13, 2017, 4:43 PM EDT (20:43 UTC)
Expired
Jul 13, 2017, 5:45 PM EDT
In force
62 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 45 counties

Bergen County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Chester County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Perry County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, York County, PA

The radar

The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 162 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2017-07-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 572 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2017-07-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 103 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
572 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-82 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1449 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
103 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
140 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
2.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

244 
ACUS11 KWNS 132044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132043 
RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-132145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1306
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2017

Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania...much of New
Jersey...southern New York...and Connecticut

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412...413...

Valid 132043Z - 132145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412, 413
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across portions of WWs 412 and
413.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have evolved into a couple of linear
segments over the past hour or so over northwestern portions of the
discussion area at this time, extending from far western Connecticut
(around 30 SW BDL southwestward to around 30 S POU) and in eastern
Pennsylvania (from around 15 NW ABE westward to around 25 N CXY). 
More isolated convection has evolved out ahead of these linear
segments recently.  A threat for damaging wind gusts/tree damage
remains possible with each of the individual storms and linear
segments - especially where a moderately unstable airmass exists
that has been undisturbed by previous convection.

Northwest of the linear segments, overturning and low-level
stabilization has led to a substantial decrease in the severe threat
for the remainder of the afternoon.  Most recent status messages for
WWs 412 and 413 indicate areas where the threat has decreased
recently, and northwestern portions of these watches may be
cancelled early.

..Cook.. 07/13/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   40667710 40887621 41237511 41687408 41947313 41957222
            41747173 41247163 40867191 40487303 40087376 39747457
            39707554 39837676 39907731 40047748 40357744 40667710

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 13, 11:09 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPC2 hr
Jul 13, 1:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCGreater Bridgeport Planning Region, Capitol Planning Region, Northwest Hills Planning Region, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region and 1 more5 hr
Jul 13, 2:33 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBurlington, Camden, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex and 3 more57 min
Jul 13, 2:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBurlington, Camden, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex and 4 more6 hr
Jul 13, 6:23 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBurlington, Camden, Gloucester, Ocean97 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.