Special Weather Statement, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
1148 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation section.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoonal moisture spreading into the forecast area
through tomorrow will increase shower and thunderstorm activity
and bring a potential for heavy rain. Drier air will spread back
into the area from the northwest Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Deep moisture is in place over the forecast area
this morning, with widespread PWs in excess of 1.0 inch across
central and southern Utah spreading into northern Utah this
afternoon. Precipitation late this morning is focused along a
shortwave near the NV/AZ border, which is well defined on
satellite imagery. This shortwave will lift northward today across
western Utah, reaching the central part of the state this
afternoon.

Best instability and thus best coverage of convection will
be in association with this shortwave though thick cloud cover may
delay convective initiation. However, given the very moist
airmass, at least scattered coverage is expected for the entire
southern half of the state. Any of these storms will be capable of
producing heavy rain, resulting in an elevated threat of flash
flooding. A flash flood watch remains in effect through this
evening. On the leading edge of the moisture over northern Utah,
storms may be on the drier side and capable of producing gusty and
erratic winds.

The monsoonal moisture will remain in place over much of the
forecast area through tomorrow, though some drier air is progged
to creep into northwest Utah as early as tomorrow afternoon.
With PWs remaining in excess of 1.0 inch across southern and
eastern Utah, the threat for heavy rain will remain. By Friday,
the ridge is expected to flatten as a trough moves over the top of
the ridge. This will shift the flow aloft to a more westerly
direction, allowing drier air to move in through the weekend.

Updated the forecast earlier to adjust POPs and cloud cover for
today. No additional updates planned.

&&

.AVIATION...Southerly winds at the SLC terminal are expected to
prevail through the afternoon and evening and will remain gusty at
times. There is a 20 percent chance that winds will shift to
light northwest between about 21-01z. Showers in the vicinity of
the terminal could bring occasional erratic winds between about
19-02z this afternoon into this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoonal moisture over southern Utah will spread
northward across much of the fire district this afternoon.
Widespread showers and wet thunderstorms will develop over central
and southern Utah today. Locations over northwest and far northern
Utah will be on the northern fringe of this moisture and could see
storms on the dry side that have the potential to produce gusty
outflow winds. The moisture will remain in place across much of
the area Thursday except for a bit of drying across far northwest
Utah during the afternoon. The increased moisture will lead to
cooler temperatures and much higher humidities for much of the
fire district.

More robust drying from the northwest will take place Friday and
Saturday, limiting the bulk of showers and thunderstorms to
southern through east-central Utah. Latest models indicate some
moisture will return to northern Utah for the early part of next
week.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for UTZ010-012>016-
     019>021-517-518.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for UTZ478.

WY...None.
&&

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...Traphagan
AVIATION...Wilensky

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
605 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-201300-
Cache Valley/Utah Portion-Northern Wasatch Front-
Salt Lake and Tooele Valleys-Southern Wasatch Front-
Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains-Wasatch Mountain Valleys-
Wasatch Mountains I-80 North-Wasatch Mountains South of I-80-
Western Uinta Mountains-Wasatch Plateau/Book Cliffs-
Western Uinta Basin-Castle Country-San Rafael Swell-
Sanpete/Sevier Valleys-West Central Utah-Southwest Utah-
Utahs Dixie and Zion National Park-South Central Utah-
Glen Canyon Recreation Area/Lake Powell-Central Mountains-
Southern Mountains-Southwest Wyoming-
605 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the western two thirds of
Utah and southwest Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The potential for showers and thunderstorms will increase across
much of the outlook area today. Heavy rain will be a possibility,
leading to an increased threat of flash flooding especially
along prone drainages in southern and central Utah.

Some thunderstorms, especially those that develop across northwest
Utah, may produce strong gusty outflow winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A moist airmass will remain in place Thursday, maintaining
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area along with a
threat of heavy rain.

Drier air will spread into northern Utah Friday into Saturday, but
moisture will remain in place across southern through east-central
Utah where showers and thunderstorms will continue.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

For more information from NOAA/s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For information on potential road travel impacts visit...
http://www.udottraffic.utah.gov/roadweatherforecast.aspx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
136 PM MDT WED JUL 19 2017

UTZ518-192000-
Southern Utah Mountains UT-
136 PM MDT WED JUL 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GARFIELD COUNTY
UNTIL 200 PM MDT...

At 135 PM MDT, National Weather Service Doppler Radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 8 miles northeast of Panguitch, or 25 miles
south of Junction...moving north at 15 mph.

Penny to nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be
possible.

Locations impacted include...
Panguitch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches, take shelter in a sturdy building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3779 11232 3783 11244 3811 11238 3803 11205
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 198DEG 14KT 3788 11230

CRK

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