Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
637 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Didn't make any major changes to the terminals this cycle.
Thunderstorms will become more widespread later this evening and
overnight tonight. Once MVFR to IFR ceilings develop, models
indicate clearing isn't likely through at least 18Z tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

A cold front has moved south into the far northwestern part of
our forecast area this afternoon. A dryline extends from near the
triple point in Mitchell County, south-southeast to just east of
San Angelo, to east of Ozona. The cold front will continue to
advance slowly to the south across the northern and western parts
of our area through late this evening. With steep mid-level lapse
rates and ML Capes in the range of 1000-2000 J/Kg, scattered
thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon across western
parts of the Big Country, with an increase in coverage this
evening across much of the Big Country and Concho Valley. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect for our northern and most of
our central counties until 10 PM CDT. An upper level low over the
Arizona/New Mexico border this afternoon will drop south into
northeastern Mexico tonight, then lift northeast into west central
Texas by Sunday evening.

Later tonight, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
over southwestern parts of our area, increasing in coverage to
envelop much of west central Texas overnight. Large hail and
damaging winds will be possible with these thunderstorms across
the southern half of our area, and convection may grow into a
mesoscale convective system. Heavy rainfall and localized
flooding will be possible late tonight into Sunday morning.
Considerable coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected
through midday Sunday. Additional development is possible on
Sunday afternoon, as cooling aloft overspreads our area.
Temperatures will be much cooler on Sunday, as the cold front
continues to move slowly south. Widespread cloud cover and
considerable coverage of convection will limit temperature
recovery during the day.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)

The upper low will move northeast out of west central Texas Sunday
night, and into extreme southeastern Oklahoma by daybreak Monday.
The convection will end from southwest to northeast across our area,
with cloud cover decreasing across the western and southern part of
our area overnight. Mostly sunny skies and pleasant conditions are
expected on Monday, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

An upper trough will move into the southwestern CONUS Monday night,
east across the southern and central Rockies on Tuesday, and across
the southern and central Plains Tuesday n19
light. Southerly low-level
flow will briefly return to our area Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Winds will veer to the southwest during the day Tuesday as
a dryline mixes into our eastern counties by late afternoon. A cold
front will push south across our area early Wednesday morning. With
the trough passage and associated lift to our north, along with
rather limited moisture, any associated convection is expected to be
north and northeast of our area.

Temperatures will be cooler Wednesday with gusty northwest winds in
the wake of the early day cold frontal passage. After highs in the
80s on Tuesday, highs Wednesday are expected to be mostly in the 65-
70 degree range. A surface high is progged to settle southeast into
our area Wednesday night. With clear skies and good radiational
cooling, overnight lows are forecast to be in the lower 40s, with a
few upper 30s not out of the question in the favored low-lying areas.

Dry conditions are indicated late next week, with temperatures
above normal again by Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 52  65  50  80 /  70  80  50   0
San Angelo 	 53  67  49  83 /  80  70  30   0
Junction 	 59  70  50  82 /  80  80  20   0
Brownwood 	 57  71  51  80 /  60  80  50   0
Sweetwater 	 50  61  48  79 /  70  70  30   0
Ozona      	 54  67  48  82 /  80  70  20   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
356 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-022100-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
356 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of West Central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Expect thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. The main
thunderstorm hazards are large hail, damaging winds, deadly
lighting, and perhaps a tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The potential for severe thunderstorms will continue on Sunday.
Large Hail and damaging winds will continue as the main threats on
Sunday. Plus, some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in a
brief period of time. Thus, flash flooding is another possible
hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

We may need spotters this afternoon and evening, and perhaps on
Sunday..

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