Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
637 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Didn't make any major changes to the terminals this cycle.
Thunderstorms will become more widespread later this evening and
overnight tonight. Once MVFR to IFR ceilings develop, models
indicate clearing isn't likely through at least 18Z tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

A cold front has moved south into the far northwestern part of
our forecast area this afternoon. A dryline extends from near the
triple point in Mitchell County, south-southeast to just east of
San Angelo, to east of Ozona. The cold front will continue to
advance slowly to the south across the northern and western parts
of our area through late this evening. With steep mid-level lapse
rates and ML Capes in the range of 1000-2000 J/Kg, scattered
thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon across western
parts of the Big Country, with an increase in coverage this
evening across much of the Big Country and Concho Valley. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect for our northern and most of
our central counties until 10 PM CDT. An upper level low over the
Arizona/New Mexico border this afternoon will drop south into
northeastern Mexico tonight, then lift northeast into west central
Texas by Sunday evening.

Later tonight, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
over southwestern parts of our area, increasing in coverage to
envelop much of west central Texas overnight. Large hail and
damaging winds will be possible with these thunderstorms across
the southern half of our area, and convection may grow into a
mesoscale convective system. Heavy rainfall and localized
flooding will be possible late tonight into Sunday morning.
Considerable coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected
through midday Sunday. Additional development is possible on
Sunday afternoon, as cooling aloft overspreads our area.
Temperatures will be much cooler on Sunday, as the cold front
continues to move slowly south. Widespread cloud cover and
considerable coverage of convection will limit temperature
recovery during the day.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)

The upper low will move northeast out of west central Texas Sunday
night, and into extreme southeastern Oklahoma by daybreak Monday.
The convection will end from southwest to northeast across our area,
with cloud cover decreasing across the western and southern part of
our area overnight. Mostly sunny skies and pleasant conditions are
expected on Monday, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

An upper trough will move into the southwestern CONUS Monday night,
east across the southern and central Rockies on Tuesday, and across
the southern and central Plains Tuesday n19
light. Southerly low-level
flow will briefly return to our area Monday night into Tuesday
morning. Winds will veer to the southwest during the day Tuesday as
a dryline mixes into our eastern counties by late afternoon. A cold
front will push south across our area early Wednesday morning. With
the trough passage and associated lift to our north, along with
rather limited moisture, any associated convection is expected to be
north and northeast of our area.

Temperatures will be cooler Wednesday with gusty northwest winds in
the wake of the early day cold frontal passage. After highs in the
80s on Tuesday, highs Wednesday are expected to be mostly in the 65-
70 degree range. A surface high is progged to settle southeast into
our area Wednesday night. With clear skies and good radiational
cooling, overnight lows are forecast to be in the lower 40s, with a
few upper 30s not out of the question in the favored low-lying areas.

Dry conditions are indicated late next week, with temperatures
above normal again by Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 52  65  50  80 /  70  80  50   0
San Angelo 	 53  67  49  83 /  80  70  30   0
Junction 	 59  70  50  82 /  80  80  20   0
Brownwood 	 57  71  51  80 /  60  80  50   0
Sweetwater 	 50  61  48  79 /  70  70  30   0
Ozona      	 54  67  48  82 /  80  70  20   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
356 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-022100-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
356 PM CDT Sat Apr 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of West Central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Expect thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. The main
thunderstorm hazards are large hail, damaging winds, deadly
lighting, and perhaps a tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

The potential for severe thunderstorms will continue on Sunday.
Large Hail and damaging winds will continue as the main threats on
Sunday. Plus, some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in a
brief period of time. Thus, flash flooding is another possible
hazard.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

We may need spotters this afternoon and evening, and perhaps on
Sunday..

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
840 PM CDT SAT APR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     HAIL             VALERA                  31.75N  99.55W
04/01/2017  E4.50 INCH       COLEMAN            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1700045

JD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
843 PM CDT SAT APR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0843 PM     HAIL             SANTA ANNA              31.74N  99.32W
04/01/2017  E1.75 INCH       COLEMAN            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1700046

WILEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
850 PM CDT SAT APR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0849 PM     HAIL             1 SSW SANTA ANNA        31.72N  99.33W
04/01/2017  E2.75 INCH       COLEMAN            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1700047

JD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
859 PM CDT SAT APR 1 2017

TXZ128-139-140-020245-
Callahan TX-Coleman TX-Brown TX-
859 PM CDT SAT APR 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CALLAHAN...NORTHWESTERN
BROWN AND NORTHEASTERN COLEMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

At 859 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Burkett, or 17 miles north of Coleman, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Burkett around 905 PM CDT.
  Cross Plains around 925 PM CDT.
  Atwell around 935 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Echo, Us-
283 Near The Coleman-
Callahan County Line, Admiral, The Intersection Of US-
283 And Highway 36 and I-20 Near The Callahan-Eastland County Line.

This includes Interstate 20 between Mile Markers 313 and 323.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3178 9945 3225 9947 3252 9912 3208 9912
      3208 9893 3194 9883
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 235DEG 24KT 3206 9933

Daniels

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
902 PM CDT SAT APR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 SSW SANTA ANNA        31.69N  99.36W
04/01/2017                   COLEMAN            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1700048

WILEY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
907 PM CDT SAT APR 1 2017

TXZ066-073-139-020230-
Runnels TX-Coleman TX-Concho TX-
907 PM CDT SAT APR 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COLEMAN...
SOUTHEASTERN RUNNELS AND NORTHEASTERN CONCHO COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM
CDT...

At 907 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Voss, or 19 miles east of Paint Rock, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Voss around 915 PM CDT.
  Gouldbusk around 920 PM CDT.
  Valera around 930 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include The Intersection Of
Ranch Road 1929 And Ranch Road 2134, The Intersection Of US-
83 And Ranch Road 1929, Mozelle, Fisk, Us-83 Near The Concho-
Runnels County Line, The Intersection Of US-
83 And Ranch Road 765 and Shields.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3150 9937 3146 9953 3148 9954 3149 9957
      3149 9960 3144 9961 3136 9994 3164 9999
      3180 9945
TIME...MOT...LOC 0207Z 235DEG 23KT 3158 9961

Daniels