Special Weather Statement, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
306 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Surface remnants of Cindy are currently spinning across Central
Arkansas attm with this feature expected to continue moving
quickly to the north and east this morning. However, looking
aloft, there will continue to be a weakness in the mid levels of
the atmosphere in the form of a shear axis across Central
Louisiana into South Central/Southeast Arkansas today. Combine
this with tropical moisture left behind from Cindy and that will
be an area for scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
continuing today. Our eastern most zones is an area that can take
additional rainfall today with the heavier rates expected this
morning so for this reason, have decided to cancel the remaining
Flash Flood Watch across our portion of Northern Louisiana and
Union County Arkansas.

Looking upstream, a trough of low pressure across the Northern and
Central Plains will have a cold front associated with it that will
be moving into the Middle Red River Valley of Southeast Oklahoma,
Southwest Arkansas and Northeast Texas this evening with
additional scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected to develop along this feature. The convection should
continue increasing in coverage as the front pushes south towards
the I-20 Corridor overnight tonight as well. Kept pops on the high
side at least through Saturday morning across all but our
northern third as the front will be slow pushing through the I-20
Corridor during day but should see a drying trend from north to
south across our region by Sat Aftn. The front should push
completely through our region by Sat Evng but the 850mb boundary
and thus the drier post frontal airmass will not get a good push
through our region until late Sat Night/Sun timeframe so have
kept slight chance/chance pops going for the corridor and south
for these periods as well. The post frontal airmass will tend to
keep temperatures down for late June across the region with lows
in the 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s through at least Tue
of next week which could be a lot worse this time of the year
before we begin to see returning southerly flow by the middle and
later half of the upcoming work week.

Upper ridging begins to break down by the middle of next week
across the southwest CONUS with near zonal flow expected across
much of the Southern Plains thereafter. With the expected low
level moisture return, we should return to more typical daytime
driven afternoon showers and thunderstorms towards the end of the
week as well along with near normal temperatures.

Prelims to follow...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  74  83  69 /  50  60  70  30
MLU  86  73  83  68 /  80  60  70  30
DEQ  88  70  82  63 /  40  60  40  10
TXK  87  72  81  66 /  40  60  60  20
ELD  85  72  81  65 /  80  60  60  20
TYR  90  73  83  69 /  20  60  70  40
GGG  89  73  83  68 /  20  60  70  40
LFK  90  76  86  71 /  20  40  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1142 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

ARZ050-051-059>061-070-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124-125-136-
231645-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-McCurtain-
Red River-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Smith-
1142 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will develop over the
area as Tropical Depression Cindy moves North and Northeast
across the region. Rainfall may become heavy over parts of the
area during the afternoon and overnight generally to the North and
east of the track of Cindy. The heavy rainfall can produce
ponding of water in streets and low lying and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Rainfall to gradually taper off during the day on Friday as the
remnants of Cindy shift to the East. A cold front shifting south
will maintain a chance of showers and thunderstorms, some of
which may contain locally heavy rainfall Friday night into early
Saturday. For the rest of the weekend and through the next work
week there will be a diminished chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will not be needed through tonight.

ARZ071>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ126-137-138-149>153-
165>167-231645-
Lafayette-Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-
De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-
Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-Marion-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1142 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

The remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy will move North across
extreme Eastern Texas and Western Louisiana today, before a
gradual shift to the Northeast across Northwest Louisiana and
Southern Arkansas tonight through early Friday morning. Periods of
locally heavy rainfall near the center of circulation can be
expected across all these areas. Widespread heavy rainfall of two
to four inches is expected through Friday morning, with isolated
higher amounts of five inches possible mainly across portions of
extreme Eastern Texas, Northwest Louisiana, and South Central
Arkansas. This amount of rainfall will produce flooding of streets
and low lying and poor drainage areas and can lead to Flash
Flooding with successive downpours. For today there will be a
tight pressure gradient associated with Cindy that will produce
strong and gusty winds of 15 to 25 MPH with higher gusts to near
or higher than 30 MPH, that can lead to falling trees as the
grounds soak. With landfalling tropical systems there is a threat
for rotation in the spiral bands to the East and Northeast of the
track resulting in weak tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Additional heavy rainfall will be possible through midday Friday
before tapering off briefly as the remnants of Cindy shift to the
East. However a cold front shifting South to bring a return of
showers and thunderstorms, some of which may contain locally heavy
rainfall for Friday night into early Saturday. For the rest of
the weekend and through the next work week there will be a
diminished chance of showers and thunderstorms with lesser
amounts expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters may be required along and to the
east of the track of Cindy through tonight.

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
349 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

LAZ017-230930-
Sabine LA-
349 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL SABINE PARISH UNTIL
430 AM CDT...

At 349 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Converse, or 16 miles southeast of Mansfield, moving east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oak Grove and Pleasant Hill.

LAT...LON 3177 9367 3185 9365 3184 9344 3173 9344
TIME...MOT...LOC 0849Z 277DEG 11KT 3181 9359

13