Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1001 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Remnants of Tropical Depression Cindy has shifted north of the
ARKLATEX earlier this morning, but in its wake, a rather moist
atmospheric profile ensued. A mid-level shear axis across portions
of southwest AR and north central LA coupled with rather moist
conditions have aided in lingering scattered showers and a few
isolated thunderstorms across the aforementioned areas /some of
which have approached strong levels/. This precipitation activity
is moving east, and expected to be waning whilst exiting the
region by late morning/early this aftn. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms could develop just about anywhere this aftn, if
enough daytime destabilization takes place. Otherwise, an
approaching cold front will be our next weather maker tonight/overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 656 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 23/12Z TAFS... IFR to MVFR conditions are prevailing
across the ArkLatex region. Tropical Storm Cindy's remnants have
moved into SE AR, and will continue to move off to the NE this
morning. Currently showers and thunderstorms are over SW AR and
most of LA these storms will move to the NE at 20 mph. The E TX
terminals KTYR,KTXK,KLFK and KGGG no rain at this time but clouds
of 1KFT are moving in from the west ahead of a cold front in the
Panhandle of TX. SHRA will increase this afternoon across all
terminals sites before moving out of the region completely by
24/00Z. Sfc winds will range from 10 to 15 kts with higandher
gusts, while winds abv flight level will range from 20 to 40 kts.
/21/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Surface remnants of Cindy are currently spinning across Central
Arkansas attm with this feature expected to continue moving
quickly to the north and east this morning. However, looking
aloft, there will continue to be a weakness in the mid levels of
the atmosphere in the form of a shear axis across Central
Louisiana into South Central/Southeast Arkansas today. Combine
this with tropical moisture left behind from Cindy and that will
be an area for scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
continuing today. Our eastern most zones is an area that can take
additional rainfall today with the heavier rates expected this
morning so for this reason, have decided to cancel the remaining
Flash Flood Watch across our portion of Northern Louisiana and
Union County Arkansas.

Looking upstream, a trough of low pressure across the Northern and
Central Plains will have a cold front associated with it that will
be moving into the Middle Red River Valley of Southeast Oklahoma,
Southwest Arkansas and Northeast Texas this evening with
additional scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected to develop along this feature. The convection should
continue increasing in coverage as the front pushes south towards
the I-20 Corridor overnight tonight as well. Kept pops on the high
side at least through Saturday morning across all but our
northern third as the front will be slow pushing through the I-20
Corridor during day but should see a drying trend from north to
south across our region by Sat Aftn. The front should push
completely through our region by Sat Evng but the 850mb boundary
and thus the drier post frontal airmass will not get a good push
through our region until late Sat Night/Sun timeframe so have
kept slight chance/chance pops going for the corridor and south
for these periods as well. The post frontal airmass will tend to
keep temperatures down for late June across the region with lows
in the 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s through at least Tue
of next week which could be a lot worse this time of the year
before we begin to see returning southerly flow by the middle and
later half of the upcoming work week.

Upper ridging begins to break down by the middle of next week
across the southwest CONUS with near zonal flow expected across
much of the Southern Plains thereafter. With the expected low
level moisture return, we should return to more typical daytime
driven afternoon showers and thunderstorms towards the end of the
week as well along with near normal temperatures.

Prelims to follow...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  74  83  69 /  30  60  70  30
MLU  85  73  83  68 /  90  60  70  30
DEQ  89  70  82  63 /  40  60  40  10
TXK  88  72  81  66 /  40  60  60  20
ELD  85  72  81  65 /  80  60  60  20
TYR  91  73  83  69 /  20  60  70  40
GGG  89  73  83  68 /  20  60  70  40
LFK  91  76  86  71 /  20  40  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

29/21/13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1047 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-241600-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1047 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

With the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy having moved well north
and east of our region today, much of the rainfall associated with
Cindy will move north and east with her. However scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms lingered across portions of
southwest Arkansas and north central Louisiana late this morning,
with a few storms approaching strong levels. A gradual eastward
shift of the precipitation exiting the region will take place by
this afternoon. The lack of scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be temporary as a cold front will begin moving into the
Middle Red River Valley of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma and
Southwest Arkansas this evening. Along with this frontal boundary
will be scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms and this
activity will build southward towards the Interstate 20 Corridor
of Northeast Texas and Northern Louisiana late tonight. Some of
these storms could become strong to severe overnight, with
damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in association
with a cold front will effect most of the Four State Region during
the day Saturday before the activity tries to push southward and
taper off Saturday Night into Sunday along with the cold front.
Low chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain in the
forecast through early Monday mainly along and south of the I-20
Corridor as well. Otherwise, we should see a drying trend through
the early part of next week with low rain chances returning once
again by the end of the upcoming work week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters may be needed tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
758 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CAMPTI                  31.90N 93.11W
06/23/2017                   NATCHITOCHES       LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED AND HIGH WATER OVER
            ROADS.

&&

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
913 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

ARZ073-LAZ004-006-231500-
Union AR-Union LA-Claiborne LA-
913 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL UNION COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN UNION AND NORTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE PARISHES UNTIL 1000 AM
CDT...

At 912 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Junction City, moving east at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Junction City, Bernice, Cooley, Spearsville, Lillie, Corney Lake,
Lockhart, Oakland, Taylorville and Summerfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3294 9286 3309 9278 3302 9231 3273 9245
TIME...MOT...LOC 1412Z 292DEG 10KT 3296 9269

05!

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1028 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

ARZ073-LAZ006-231615-
Union AR-Union LA-
1028 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY IN
SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND UNION PARISHES UNTIL 1115 AM CDT...

At 1027 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Cooley, or 12 miles east of Junction City, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Huttig, Farmerville, Bernice, Strong, Cooley, Marion, Felsenthal,
Spearsville, Lillie, Aurelle, Oakland, Taylorville, Linville, Bayou D
Arbonne Lake, Lockhart, Cecil and Litroe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3263 9229 3286 9273 3294 9273 3313 9262
      3308 9213 3307 9213 3307 9211 3303 9210
TIME...MOT...LOC 1527Z 294DEG 18KT 3297 9252

05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1049 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BERNICE                 32.83N 92.66W
06/23/2017                   UNION              LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.
            SEVERAL VEHICLES ABANDONED IN HIGH WATER.

&&

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1051 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     FLASH FLOOD      JUNCTION CITY           33.02N 92.73W
06/23/2017                   UNION              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TRUCK FLOODED. WATER IN VEHICLES. ROADS
            CLOSED. SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1053 AM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 AM     TSTM WND DMG     9 NNE LISBON            32.91N 92.83W
06/23/2017                   CLAIBORNE          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL PINE TREES DOWN. HIGH WATER OVER
            ROADS.

&&

AS