River Flood Warning 3, NWS San Diego, CA

165 
WGUS86 KSGX 230452
FLSSGX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Diego, CA
852 PM PST SUN JAN 22 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in California...
 
  Santa Margarita River at Ysidora affecting Camp Pendleton 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay informed on the latest river forecasts and conditions. 
Do not drive through flooded areas or around barricades.

&&

CAC073-231752-
/O.EXT.KSGX.FL.W.0003.170123T0458Z-170124T0806Z/
/YDRC1.1.ER.170123T0458Z.170123T1000Z.170123T2006Z.NO/
852 PM PST SUN JAN 22 2017

The Flood Warning continues for the Santa Margarita River at Ysidora
* Through tomorrow early afternoon
* At 8 PM PST Sunday the stage was 10.3 feet
* Minor flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 10.8 feet
* The river is forecast to peak at 2 AM PST at 12.9 feet and 19,600 cfs
* Flood stage, 9,500 cfs. Vandegrift Road will flood downstream of the gage. 
  Stuart Mesa Road closures can be expected.
* Flood History...this crest compares to a previous crest of 12.4 feet on Feb 23 
  1998.

&&

LAT...LON 3325 11743 3341 11731 3337 11728 3326 11735
      3321 11740                  

$$

JAD

951 
WGUS86 KSGX 231011
FLSSGX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Diego, CA
211 AM PST MON JAN 23 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in California...
 
  Santa Margarita River at Ysidora affecting Camp Pendleton 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay informed on the latest river forecasts and conditions. 
Do not drive through flooded areas or around barricades.

&&

CAC073-232311-
/O.EXT.KSGX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170124T0406Z/
/YDRC1.2.ER.170123T0445Z.170123T0745Z.170123T1606Z.NO/
211 AM PST MON JAN 23 2017

The Flood Warning continues for The Santa Margarita River at Ysidora
* Through early this afternoon
* At 1 AM PST today the stage was 13.3 feet
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 10.8 feet
* At 13.3 feet, Moderate flood stage, 22,000 cfs. Vandegrift Road is flooded 
for several miles downstream of the gage site. Stuart Mesa bridge has been 
overtopped, and Stuart Mesa Road is flooded.
* Flood History...this crest compares to a previous crest of 12.4 feet on Feb 23 1998.

&&

LAT...LON 3325 11743 3341 11731 3337 11728 3326 11735
      3321 11740                  

$$

17

802 
WGUS86 KSGX 231735
FLSSGX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Diego, CA
935 AM PST MON JAN 23 2017

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in California...
 
  Santa Margarita River At Santa Margarita river at Ysidora in San Diego
  County
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay informed on the latest river forecasts and conditions. Do not drive through
flooded areas or around barricades.

&&

CAC073-231805-
/O.CAN.KSGX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-170124T0406Z/
/YDRC1.2.ER.170123T0445Z.170123T0745Z.170123T1335Z.NO/
935 AM PST MON JAN 23 2017

Forecast information for
  Santa Margarita River At Santa Margarita river at Ysidora
  
* At 09AM Monday the stage was 9.6 feet
* No flooding is currently forecast
* Flood stage is 10.8 feet
* Forecast...the river will fall to near 8.6 feet this evening then fall further
  tonight.

&&

LAT...LON 3325 11743 3341 11731 3337 11728 3326 11735
      3321 11740                  

$$

GREGORIA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
200 PM PST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The third and most powerful in the sequence of storms to impact
Southern California will bring heavy rain, heavy mountain snow
and strong damaging winds this afternoon and evening with showers
continuing at times through Tuesday. A building high pressure ridge
from the Pacific will bring dry warmer weather Wednesday through next
weekend with local gusty northeast winds Friday through next Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Rain was occurring north of San Diego County and will be
increasing from north to south in San Diego County the rest of this
afternoon. Atmospheric river continues to look strong with GPS-based
precipitable water currently rising to around 1.35 inches at Long
Beach and San Nicholas Island with GFS showing total precip water
still as high as 1.35 inches along the Orange County coast later this
afternoon. Local rainfall late this afternoon and evening could
reach one inch per hour, though most rainfall rates will be 1/4 to
1/2 inch per hour. Snow levels are currently in the 5500-6000 foot
range north of San Diego County and mostly above the peaks in San
Diego County but should rise to 7000 feet later this afternoon due
to S-SSW winds 45-55 knots at 850 MB. That will result in strong
orographic precipitation on south/southwest slopes this afternoon and
evening and could produce 3-5 inches on those slopes in San
Bernardino County. That flow will also result in widespread strong
surface winds, including at the coast where local damage could occur
and on the desert mountain slopes where a mountain wave will enhance
the winds, especially the north slopes in San Bernardino County where
an isolated gust of 80-90 MPH will be possible. Timing of the
strongest winds will be with the front very late this afternoon into
this evening. Note that winds will decrease near the coast late
tonight, so the ending time of the high wind warning has been
moved up to 6 AM Monday.

Showers with locally heavy rain will continue Monday through
Tuesday as the cold core moves over, with 500 MB temps as low as
around -31 C. Models have some CAPE late tonight through Tuesday,
with most amounts less than 500 J/kg. There could be an isolated
thunderstorm Monday through Tuesday, with best chances over the
coast and coastal waters. Snow levels will fall to 4500 feet by
Monday morning and around 3500 feet late Monday night/Tuesday
morning. Heavy snow will fall in the mountains, though the higher
snow levels, to 7000 feet or even locally higher with the strongest
part of the atmospheric river late this afternoon and this evening
will limit snowfall amounts somewhat in the 5000-7000 foot level,
but the duration of the precipitation will be long even after snow
levels fall. Overall, 10 to 20 inches should fall between 6000 and
7000 feet, with local snowfall over 2 feet above 7500 feet. A couple
inches could fall on I-15 near Cajon Pass and I-8 in the San Diego
County Mountains late Monday night into Tuesday. As is typical with
winter storm systems, there will also be areas of fog in the
mountains reducing visibility to below 1/4 mile at times through
Tuesday.

The precipitation should finish completely Tuesday evening with fair
weather returning Wednesday as a high builds off the coast. A couple
of waves move by to the northeast late in the week but we should not
have precipitation with any of these. A surface high builds in the
Great Basin and will contribute to locally moderate NE winds
through/below passes and canyons Friday through next Sunday.
Temperatures should finally be near or just above normal for high
temperatures by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
222119Z...Through 23/0600 UTC...OVC-BKN cloud decks in the 1000-
20000 ft msl layer over and west of the mountains and in the 4000-
20000 ft msl layer in the deserts, with increasing coverage and
intensity of showers and mountain obscuration of coastal slopes.
Expect areas of vis 2-5 sm to develop due to moderate precipitation,
along with local vis/cigs 1/2 sm/500 ft agl under heavier showers.
After 23/0600 UTC...BKN-OVC cloud decks in the 1000-12000 ft msl
layer over and west of the mountains and in the 5000-15000 ft msl
layer in the deserts, with numerous moderate to locally heavy
showers, mountain obscuration of coastal slopes, areas of vis 2-5
sm, and local vis AOB 1 sm.

S winds of 15-20 kt gusting to 30-35 kt, becoming SW around 23/0600
UTC. Over the mountain ridges, desert slopes, through passes/canyons
and wind-favored adjacent desert areas, S to SW winds 25-35 kt with
gusts 45-60 kt will result in stg-svr uddfs/llws/rotors over and N,
NE, and E of the mountains.

&&

.MARINE...
1 pm buoy reports from the San Clemente basin buoy show quickly
increasing southerly winds increasing this afternoon, up to 25 kt
with peak gusts of 31 kt. Meanwhile, 12 ft seas were reported there
with 8-11 ft seas reported from the nearshore buoys. Winds will
continue to increase afternoon as a strong storm system moves into
the region, with wind gusts likely reaching gale-force levels (35
kt), while seas increase again as well, up to 10-15 ft. Winds become
southwesterly early this evening, then westerly late tonight into
Monday, but wind speeds will still be strong and possibly at gale-
force strength at times with rough, large seas continuing. A Gale
Warning continues through Monday night. Winds will diminish on
Tuesday with seas very gradually decreasing on Tuesday as well. By
early Wednesday, sea conditions should no longer be hazardous to
small craft.

The storm system will also bring heavy rain squalls at times today
through Monday afternoon. Also, there is a slight chance of
thunderstorms Monday morning through late Monday night when
atmospheric instability increases. Waterspouts will be possible as
well. A Marine Weather Statement has been issued.

&&

.BEACHES...
Latest reports from lifeguards and Surfline show that surf heights
are likely peaking right now at 10-15 ft in San Diego and 6-10 ft in
Orange county. This is likely due to the fact that a moderate sized
long-period swell is combining with the shorter period very large
swell. These large west swells will continue to produce surf heights
of 8-12 feet with sets to 15 ft today. Surf this large could damage
structures and produce beach erosion. Early morning high tides will
only be around 5 ft, so anything more serious than minor coastal
flooding is not expected from the large surf.

In addition, there will be a slight chance of thunderstorms Monday
afternoon and evening at the beaches.

The swells will likely diminish a little Monday, but high surf
conditions and strong rip currents will persist into Tuesday. It is
not until Wednesday that surf and swell conditions will lower below
high surf thresholds.

More high surf is expected next Friday as a large long-period swell
(9 ft/19 seconds) from 290 degrees moves into the coastal waters and
surf zone.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expected rainfall through Monday will likely bring additional
flooding along the San Diego River. The latest CNRFC forecast is for
the river to reach Flood Stage at Fashion Valley at midnight tonight,
and a flood warning has been issued for the San Diego River from
midnight tonight to midnight Monday night. The Santa Margarita River
is expected to exceed Action Stage by 10 PM PST this evening, which
would have impacts to surface streets along the River on Camp
Pendleton. Other areas of concern will be the Whitewater Basin in the
Coachella Valley and the Tijuana River Basin along the International
Border. These waterways will likely experience flows that may have
impacts to transportation, people and other interests in their
respective flood plains.

Even the slower-to-respond San Luis Rey River is expected to have
significant flow which could impact low water crossings in the
upper watershed, and the normally dry Mojave River could see some
water covering most of the channel for a time Sunday night into
Monday.

Flash flooding in other parts of our forecast area is possible as
well. The system will start out with a period of moderate to heavy
rain this afternoon and early evening, then become more showery
with some of the showers having briefly more intense rainfall.
Isolated thunderstorms are also possible Monday and Monday night,
and possibly Tuesday, though rainfall is not likely to be high
Tuesday.

Snow levels near 5000 feet this morning will rise to around 7000 feet
this the afternoon and early evening. Snow levels will fall quickly
from the northwest during the evening and overnight to around 4500
feet by Monday morning. Snow levels will fall to around 3500 feet
Monday night and early Tuesday.

Forecast rainfall through Tuesday...

Coast..............2 to 2.5 inches.
Valleys............2 to 3.5 inches.
Mountains..........3 to 6 inches. Isolated south facing slopes
could receive 8 to 10 inches.
Upper deserts......0.75 to 1.5 inches.
Lower deserts......0.25 to 1 inch.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is requested for this afternoon and evening.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM PST Monday for Riverside County
     Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County
     Mountains.

     Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for Coachella Valley-
     San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Deserts-San
     Diego County Mountains-San Diego County Valleys.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM PST Monday for San Diego County
     Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

     High Wind Warning until 6 PM PST Monday for Apple and Lucerne
     Valleys.

     Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for Apple and Lucerne
     Valleys-Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland
     Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County
     Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The
     Inland Empire-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-Santa Ana
     Mountains and Foothills.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM PST Monday for San Diego County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Valleys.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM PST Monday for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San Bernardino and
     Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-Santa Ana
     Mountains and Foothills.

     High Surf Warning until 10 PM PST Tuesday for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters from San
     Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 30 nm-Waters
     from San Mateo point to the Mexican Border Extending 30 to
     60 nm out including San Clemente Island.

&&

PUBLIC/HYDROLOGY...Maxwell
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Harrison

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
535 PM PST SUN JAN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      9 ESE WRIGHTWOOD        34.31N 117.47W
01/22/2017                   SAN BERNARDINO     CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CHP - REPORT OF A ROCK SLIDE BLOCKING THE
            EAST AND WEST BOUND LANES OF HIGHWAY 38.
            CONTRACTOR IS CLOSING THE ROADWAY.

&&

ALBRIGHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
542 PM PST SUN JAN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      5 SE RAINBOW            33.36N 117.08W
01/22/2017                   SAN DIEGO          CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CHP - ROADWAY WASHED OUT AT PALA MISSION
            ROAD AND STATE ROUTE 76. CLOSED UNTIL
            FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

ALBRIGHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
643 PM PST SUN JAN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      8 ESE WRIGHTWOOD        34.30N 117.51W
01/22/2017                   SAN BERNARDINO     CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CHP - REPORT OF 2 VEHICLES STUCK IN A DEBRIS
            FLOW AT THE INTERSECTION OF SWARTHOUT CANYON
            RD AND LONE PINE CANYON RD.

&&

ALBRIGHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
645 PM PST SUN JAN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  6 E HESPERIA            34.42N 117.19W
01/22/2017  M60 MPH          SAN BERNARDINO     CA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CHP - POWER LINES DOWN DUE TO HIGH WINDS.

&&

ALBRIGHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
710 PM PST SUN JAN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ESE LOS SERRANOS      33.95N 117.65W
01/22/2017                   SAN BERNARDINO     CA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            CAL TRANS REPORT - HIGHWAY 83 CLOSED FORM
            PINE AVE. TO HIGHWAY 71.

&&

ALBRIGHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
753 PM PST SUN JAN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NW MUSCOY             34.21N 117.40W
01/22/2017                   SAN BERNARDINO     CA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY PUBLIC WORKS REPORTS A
            CLOSURE OF GLEN HELEN PKWY. FROM GLEN HELEN
            ROAD TO CAJON BLVD. DUE TO FLOODING IN THE
            CAJON WASH.

&&

ALBRIGHT