River Flood Warning 2, NWS San Diego, CA

950 
WGUS86 KSGX 230437
FLSSGX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Diego, CA
837 PM PST SUN JAN 22 2017

...The flood warning is cancelled for the San Diego River in California...
 
Rainfall Sunday evening has fallen short of forecast amounts so the River 
is no longer forecast to reach Flood Stage  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay informed on the latest river forecasts and conditions. 
Do not drive through flooded areas or around barricades.

&&

CAC073-230507-
/O.CAN.KSGX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170124T1400Z/
/FSNC1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
837 PM PST SUN JAN 22 2017

Forecast information for San Diego River At Fashion Valley

* At 8 PM PST Sunday the stage was 5.5 feet
* No flooding is currently forecast
* Flood stage is 11.3 feet
* Forecast...the river will rise to near 10.7 feet tomorrow morning.
* Low water crossings in Mission Valley will still likely be impacted
  and may need to be barricaded.
* Heavy showers are possible on Monday keeping the River level elevated  

&&

LAT...LON 3279 11726 3291 11690 3285 11686 3273 11716
      3273 11727                  

$$
JAD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
1000 AM PST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The third and most powerful in the sequence of storms to impact
Southern California will bring heavy rain, heavy mountain snow
and strong damaging winds this afternoon and evening with showers
continuing at times through Tuesday. A building high pressure ridge
from the Pacific will bring dry warmer weather Wednesday through next
weekend with local gusty northeast winds Friday through next Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Skies were cloudy this morning with mostly light rain north of San
Diego County. The heavier precipitation had spread east into Ventura
County and western LA County and will continue to spread east today.
Precipitation will gradually increase today, though later HRRR runs
indicate it may be until late afternoon for southern San Diego County
to receive any substantial rainfall. Atmospheric river continues to
look strong with GPS-based precipitable water currently rising to 1.2
inches at San Nicholas Island with GFS showing total precip water
still as high as 1.35 inches along the Orange County coast this
afternoon. Local rainfall late this afternoon and evening could
reach one inch per hour. Snow levels are currently in the
5000-6000 foot range but should rise to 7000 feet this afternoon due
to S-SSW winds 45-55 knots at 850 MB. That will result in strong
orographic precipitation on south/southwest slopes this afternoon and
evening and could produce 3-5 inches on those slopes in San
Bernardino County. That flow will also result in widespread strong
surface winds, including at the coast where local damage could occur
and on the desert mountain slopes where a mountain wave will enhance
the winds, especially the north slopes in San Bernardino County where
an isolated gust of 80-90 MPH will be possible. Timing of the
strongest winds will be with the front very late this afternoon into
this evening.

Showers with locally heavy rain will continue Monday through
Tuesday as the cold core moves over, with 500 MB temps as low as
around -31 C. Models have some CAPE late tonight through Tuesday,
with most amounts less than 500 J/kg. There could be an isolated
thunderstorm Monday through Tuesday, with best chances over the
coast and coastal waters. Snow levels will fall to 4500 feet by
Monday morning and around 3500 feet late Monday night/Tuesday
morning. Heavy snow will fall in the mountains, though the higher
snow levels, to 7000 feet or even locally higher with the strongest
part of the atmospheric river late this afternoon and this evening
will limit snowfall amounts somewhat in the 5000-7000 foot level,
but the duration of the precipitation will be long even after snow
levels fall. Overall, 10 to 20 inches should fall between 6000 and
7000 feet, with local snowfall over 2 feet above 7500 feet. A couple
inches could fall on I-15 near Cajon Pass and I-8 in the San Diego
County Mountains late Monday night into Tuesday. As is typical with
winter storm systems, there will also be areas of fog in the
mountains reducing visibility to below 1/4 mile at times through
Tuesday.

The precipitation should finish completely Tuesday evening with fair
weather returning Wednesday as a high builds off the coast. A couple
of waves move by to the northeast late in the week but we should not
have precipitation with any of these. A surface high builds in the
Great Basin and will contribute to locally moderate NE winds
through/below passes and canyons Friday through next Sunday.
Temperatures should finally be near or just above normal for high
temperatures by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
221625Z...Through 23/0600 UTC...OVC-BKN cloud decks in the 6000-
15000 ft msl layer will quickly become OVC-BKN cloud decks in the
1000-20000 ft msl layer over and west of the mountains and in the
4000-20000 ft msl layer in the deserts, with increasing coverage and
intensity of showers after 2000 UTC and mountain obscuration of
coastal slopes. After 2000 UTC...expect areas of vis 2-5 sm to
develop due to moderate precipitation, along with local vis/cigs 1/2
sm/500 ft agl under heavier showers. After 23/0600 UTC...BKN-OVC
cloud decks in the 1000-12000 ft msl layer over and west of the
mountains and in the 5000-15000 ft msl layer in the deserts, with
numerous moderate to locally heavy showers, mountain obscuration of
coastal slopes, areas of vis 2-5 sm, and local vis AOB 1 sm.

S winds of 15-20 kt gusting to 30-35 kt will develop along the
coastal and valley areas after 1800 UTC, becoming SW around 23/0600
UTC. Over the mountain ridges, desert slopes, through passes/canyons
and wind-favored adjacent desert areas, S to SW winds 25-35 kt with
gusts 45-60 kt will result in stg-svr uddfs/llws/rotors over and N,
NE, and E of the mountains starting by 2100 UTC.

&&

.MARINE...
7 am buoy reports from the San Clemente basin buoy show southerly
winds increasing this morning, up to 17 kt with peak gusts of 21 kt.
Meanwhile, 13 ft seas were reported there with 8-12 ft seas reported
from the nearshore buoys. Winds will continue to increase this
morning and afternoon as a strong storm system moves into the
region, with wind gusts likely reaching gale-force levels (35 kt),
while seas increase again as well, up to 10-15 ft. Winds become
southwesterly early this evening, then westerly late tonight into
Monday, but wind speeds will still be strong and possibly at gale-
force strength at times with rough, large seas continuing. A Gale
Warning continues through Monday night. Winds will diminish on
Tuesday with seas very gradually decreasing on Tuesday as well. By
early Wednesday, sea conditions should no longer be hazardous to
small craft.

The storm system will also bring heavy rain squalls at times today
through Monday afternoon. Also, there is a slight chance of
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening when atmospheric
instability increases. Waterspouts will be possible as well.

&&

.BEACHES...
Latest reports from lifeguards and Surfline show that surf heights
are likely peaking right now at 10-15 ft in San Diego and 6-10 ft in
Orange county. This is likely due to the fact that a moderate sized
long-period swell is combining with the shorter period very large
swell. These large west swells will continue to produce surf heights
of 8-12 feet with sets to 15 ft today. Surf this large could damage
structures and produce beach erosion. Early morning high tides will
only be around 5 ft, so anything more serious than minor coastal
flooding is not expected from the large surf.

In addition, there will be a slight chance of thunderstorms Monday
afternoon and evening at the beaches.

The swells will likely diminish a little Monday, but high surf
conditions and strong rip currents will persist into Tuesday. It is
not until Wednesday that surf and swell conditions will lower below
high surf thresholds.

More high surf is expected next Friday as a large long-period swell
(9 ft/19 seconds) from 290 degrees moves into the coastal waters and
surf zone.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Expected rainfall through Monday will likely bring additional
flooding along the San Diego River. The latest CNRFC forecast is for
the river to reach Flood Stage at Fashion Valley at midnight tonight,
and a flood warning will be issued soon for the San Diego River.
The Santa Margarita River is expected to exceed Action Stage by 10 PM
PST this evening, which would have impacts to surface streets along
the River on Camp Pendleton. Other areas of concern will be the
Whitewater Basin in the Coachella Valley and the Tijuana River
Basin along the International Border. These waterways will likely
experience flows that may have impacts to transportation, people and
other interests in their respective flood plains.

Even the slower-to-respond San Luis Rey River is expected to have
significant flow which could impact low water crossings in the
upper watershed, and the normally dry Mojave River could see some
water covering most of the channel for a time Sunday night into
Monday.

Flash flooding in other parts of our forecast area is possible as
well. The system will start out with a period of moderate to heavy
rain this afternoon and early evening, then become more showery
with some of the showers having briefly more intense rainfall.
Isolated thunderstorms are also possible Monday and Monday night,
and possibly Tuesday, though rainfall is not likely to be high
Tuesday.

Snow levels near 5000 feet this morning will rise to around 7000 feet
this the afternoon and early evening. Snow levels will fall quickly
from the northwest during the evening and overnight to around 4500
feet by Monday morning. Snow levels will fall to around 3500 feet
Monday night and early Tuesday.

Forecast rainfall through Tuesday...

Coast..............2 to 2.5 inches.
Valleys............2 to 3.5 inches.
Mountains..........3 to 6 inches. Isolated south facing slopes
could receive 8 to 10 inches.
Upper deserts......0.75 to 1.5 inches.
Lower deserts......0.25 to 1 inch.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is requested for this afternoon and evening
from noon to 10 PM, except 2 PM to 10 PM for San Diego County.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 6 PM PST Monday for
     Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Mountains.

     Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through Monday evening for
     Coachella Valley-San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego
     County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Diego County
     Valleys.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM PST Monday for San Diego County
     Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM PST Monday for
     Apple and Lucerne Valleys.

     Flash Flood Watch from 10 AM PST this morning through Monday
     evening for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Orange County Coastal
     Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-
     San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and
     Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Gorgonio
     Pass Near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

     High Wind Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM PST Monday
     for San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Valleys.

     Winter Storm Warning from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM PST Monday
     for San Bernardino County Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to noon PST Monday for
     Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San
     Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-
     Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

     High Surf Warning until 10 PM PST Tuesday for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters from San
     Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 30 nm-Waters
     from San Mateo point to the Mexican Border Extending 30 to
     60 nm out including San Clemente Island.

&&

PUBLIC/HYDROLOGY...Maxwell
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Harrison

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
736 AM PST SUN JAN 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 AM     HIGH SURF        7 NW SAN DIEGO          32.78N 117.25W
01/22/2017                   SAN DIEGO          CA   PUBLIC

            SURFLINE REPORTS 10 TO 15 FOOT SURF AT
            MISSION BEACH...OCEAN BEACH...SUNSET
            CLIFFS...AND BLACKS BEACH.

0655 AM     HIGH SURF        2 S HUNTINGTON BEACH    33.66N 118.00W
01/22/2017                   ORANGE             CA   PUBLIC

            SURFLINE REPORTS 8 TO 10 FOOT SURF AT
            HUNTINGTON CITY BEACH.

&&

NWS SAN DIEGO CA
SHARRISO