Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
631 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017

...Showers and Storms Today - Warm and Dry this Weekend...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017

An upper level trough will track out of the Plains today and come
into phase with a northern stream trough swinging into the Great
Lakes. This system will interact with a front sagging southward
into the Ozarks to produce scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms today and tonight.

Expect early morning activity to diminish toward sunrise. While
additional development could occur at any time during the day
Thursday expect the bulk of redevelopment from mid afternoon into
this evening along the sagging front as it pushes into
southeastern Kansas and far southern Missouri.

There will be the potential for strong to a few severe storms this
afternoon and evening generally along and south of the Highway 60
corridor. This potential will be dependent on the extent of
destabilization that will occur. At this time mixed layer CAPE is
progged to be near 1500 J/KG along with ample deep layer sheer to
support strong updrafts across far southern Missouri. The primary
severe risk will be large hail and locally damaging winds.

Storm total rainfall amounts still expected to average in the one
half to one and a half inch range. Expect rainfall amounts to be
quite variable and locally higher amounts are possible.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017

The upper level trough and associated cold front will transition
to east Friday bringing an end to lingering showers in the
morning. Considerable cloud cover could linger much of the day
Friday and temperatures will be cooler.

Upper level ridging and southerly winds will return this weekend
resulting dry weather and a warming trend.

More unsettled weather will return during the middle and later
part of next week as a large upper level trough evolves out west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017

Pilot can expect MVFR ceilings at times as well as an increase in
the coverage of showers and thunderstorms by afternoon. Showers
and storms will become more widespread from mid afternoon into
this evening as front moves into the region. Prevailing MVFR
conditions will develop later today into tonight with IFR ceilings
possible later tonight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
748 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-121300-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
748 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated Hail risk.
  Elevated Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated Flooding risk.
  Significant Lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

 Additional thunderstorm development will occur today especially
 this afternoon and evening. Strong to a few severe storms will
 impact far southern Missouri generally along and south of the
 Highway 60 corridor from mid afternoon into the evening. The
 primary risk with any severe storms that develop will be large
 hail to the size of ping pong balls and locally damaging wind
 gust to 60 mph.

 Locally heavy rainfall with additional amounts up to two inches
 could result in localized flooding mainly across far southern
 Missouri. The flooding risk needs to be closely monitored across
 far southern Missouri this afternoon and evening where training
 storms could heighten the flash flood risk.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

 The chance of thunderstorms will return during the middle and
 later part of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Foster

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
355 AM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1234 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 N RACINE              36.91N 94.53W
05/11/2017  E58 MPH          NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED VIA LAW ENFORCEMENT OF
            A 58 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

EW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
932 AM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

MOZ093-111515-
Newton MO-
932 AM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NEWTON COUNTY UNTIL 1015 AM
CDT...

At 932 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Goodman, or 7 miles south of Neosho, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Neosho...                         Granby...
Diamond...                        Wheaton...
Fairview...                       Newtonia...
Stella...                         Wentworth...
Stark City...                     Ritchey...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3676 9448 3686 9448 3705 9429 3705 9406
      3678 9406 3675 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 1432Z 246DEG 31KT 3677 9434

Frye