Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
211 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

Currently seeing a break in the thunderstorm activity early this
afternoon, with clearing occurring across the southern portions
of the CWA. This has allowed temperatures to quickly warm into the
mid 70s where sun has broken through. Combined with dewpoints in
the mid to upper 60s, 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is in place across
the region, along with plenty of deep layer shear.

Convection has already started to develop across northeastern
Oklahoma, and should continue to expand in coverage toward the
north and east this afternoon and this evening. This initial
convection will yield a wind and especially a hail threat, with
very steep mid level lapse rates suggesting hail up to 2" in
diameter. There will also be a conditional tornado threat with any
storm that is able to move along the front or a mesoscale
boundary.

Convection will continue to develop into and through the evening
hours, and along with the severe weather threat, a localized flood
threat will be possible as well where multiple storms train over
the same area.

Convective intensity should begin to diminish late this evening,
though occasional rain and thunderstorms will continue through the
night as the upper level low swings through the area.

Rain will then end from northwest to southeast on Friday as the
front sweeps across. Temperatures tomorrow will be cooler, with
highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Skies will gradually clear
through the day, eventually becoming clear by evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

Beautiful conditions are then expected on Saturday as high
pressure builds into the region. Temperatures will be right around
average with light winds and clear skies. Southerly winds will
start to kick in on Sunday, helping to boost temperatures back
to around 80. Warm weather is then expected through at least mid
week, as southerly flow dominates. Rain chances really don't look
to increase again until at least mid week, or perhaps later.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

A frontal boundary will bring multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to southern Missouri from late this afternoon into
early Friday morning. MVFR and brief IFR conditions can be
expected around storms. There will also be a threat for large hail
and gusty winds with storms late this afternoon and this evening.

Even outside of thunderstorms, ceilings will lower tonight as that
front pushes south. MVFR will become widespread with increasing
likelihood for IFR late tonight and early Friday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ077-079>083-
     088>098-101>106.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Schaumann

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
344 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-122045-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
344 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Tornado risk.
  Significant Hail risk.
  Elevated Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated Flooding risk.
  Significant Lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

 Strong to severe storms will continue to move through the area
this afternoon and evening. Locations south of US Highway 54 has
the highest chance of being impacted by these storms. The primary
risk will be large hail...potentially up to the size of baseballs.
Damaging wind gusts to 60 mph are also possible. An isolated
tornado will be possible if thunderstorms are able to interact
with any boundaries in the area.

 Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with widespread 1-2
likely. A few 3-4 inch amounts are possible. This could result in
flash flooding and a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for mainly
areas along and south of Interstate 44.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

 The chance of thunderstorms will return during the middle and
 later part of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed for the rest of the afternoon
and evening for most of Southeast Kansas and Southwest Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
328 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             3 SW NEOSHO             36.84N 94.42W
05/11/2017  E1.75 INCH       NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
329 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             4 NNW GOODMAN           36.80N 94.42W
05/11/2017  E1.25 INCH       NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
340 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0336 PM     HAIL             KIRBYVILLE              36.62N 93.16W
05/11/2017  E1.00 INCH       TANEY              MO   911 CALL CENTER

&&

MMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
342 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     HAIL             FORSYTH                 36.69N 93.12W
05/11/2017  E0.75 INCH       TANEY              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
345 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             FORSYTH                 36.69N 93.12W
05/11/2017  E1.00 INCH       TANEY              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
348 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     HAIL             FORSYTH                 36.69N 93.12W
05/11/2017  E1.75 INCH       TANEY              MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

MMT