Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Springfield, MO

191 
WWUS53 KSGF 050527
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1227 AM CDT WED APR 5 2017

MOC091-149-203-050537-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0121.000000T0000Z-170405T0545Z/
Shannon MO-Howell MO-Oregon MO-
1227 AM CDT WED APR 5 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHANNON...
SOUTHEASTERN HOWELL AND OREGON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However heavy rain is
still possible with these thunderstorms.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
south central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3677 9182 3691 9163 3705 9149 3707 9122
      3683 9123 3682 9111 3650 9113 3650 9184
TIME...MOT...LOC 0525Z 226DEG 60KT 3720 9118 3692 9121 

$$

Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
612 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

Attention focused on severe weather threat this evening and then
winds and temperatures for Wednesday.

Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows rather potent mid level
shortwave over northeastern New Mexico. This wave will track east-
northeast into western Missouri by 12Z Wednesday. Meanwhile, surface
low will deepen over central Oklahoma and push northeast into
southern Missouri this evening. CAM models showing convective
initiation near the low in central to northeast Oklahoma and this
pushes northeast into the area evolving into more line segments.
Low level moisture still the limiting factor as surface dew points
will only be in the middle 50s across southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas.

None the less, we expect a hail and wind risk with the storms.
There is the potential for hail up to two inches in diameter (or
perhaps slightly larger) given steep mid-level lapse rates, strong
deep layer shear, and fairly low freezing levels. There will be
the potential for splitting supercells to the north of the warm
front. Left-movers would peel off to the north at a rather quick
rate. The damaging wind threat will mainly be confined to any line
segments.

Although tornado potential will be held down given a lack of low
level moisture, there is some potential. This will especially be
true along a surface warm front where low level vorticity will be
maximized. For any right-moving supercells, they will tend to
parallel this front through about 01 UTC. After this time, right-
movers would then tend to cross over the front and become
elevated. In a similar fashion, 0-3 km bulk shear vectors will
favor line segment mesovortex potential with a heightened threat
along that front into early this evening. By late this evening
(after 03 UTC), the shear vectors will not be orientated as
favorably. The good news is that the severe threat looks to
subside by about midnight.

The surface low will continue to deepen as it lifts northeast
Wednesday. Strong pressure gradient on its backside along with
strong cold advection will make for a windy and raw day with wrap
around moisture resulting in showers rotating across the area. High
temperatures for Wednesday will be in the early morning hours with
steady or falling temperatures much of the day. Winds will likely
being pushing advisory criteria for portions of the area with
sustained of 20 to 30 mph common and some gusts to near 40 mph.

Skies will begin to clear out from west to east Wednesday night.
Despite the clearing skies, low level winds should preclude any type
of frost despite lows dropping into the mid and upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue
Apr 4 2017

Northerly low and mid level flow will continue on Thursday as
high pressure begins to build southward across the central Plains.
Another cool day is in store with highs only in the 50s. This
surface high will then drift into southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks Thursday night. The set up will be favorable for
frost, as lows are expected to dip into the lower to middle 30s
along with light winds and clear skies.

Later Friday through Saturday time frame will see building 500mb
heights across the mid section of the country as ridging builds into
the area. With southerly low level winds becoming more established,
temperatures will be on the warming trend with highs back into the
70s by Saturday.

Rather progressive flow pushes the ridge to the east late Sunday as
troughing develops across the mountains and Plains. Main surface low
looks to track across the northern Plains Sunday into Monday with a
trailing cold front pushing eastward through Kansas and into
Missouri by Monday and will start to see precipitation chance by
late Sunday night and continuing through Monday. Current timing has
front east of the area on Tuesday with surface high settling into
the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 609 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

Strong to severe convection which has developed in eastern OK will
begin to shift into western MO shortly and affecting the JLN
vicinity between 00z-03z...SGF from 02-05z and BBG 03-06z. Ahead
of the convection we can look for VFR conditions with cirrus
shield spreading over the area. A frontal boundary will be
splitting through the area with northeast winds just north of the
boundary and southeast winds south of the boundary. After the
storms pass through, there will be a few hours of VFR conditions
before the stratus moves in overnight with the low. IFR conditions
are likely to occur with this through much of Wednesday. By late
morning through the afternoon, we could see winds of 18 to 30kt.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding/Schaumann
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
808 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-060115-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
808 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Tornado risk.
  Elevated Hail risk.
  Elevated Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated Lightning risk.
  Limited Non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

Strong to severe storms will continue to push east across the
Missouri Ozarks this evening. A frontal boundary remains near the
U.S. 60 corridor. Areas north of the front will have a large hail
and damaging wind gust risk with hail to the size of golf balls
and wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph possible. South of the front, an
isolated tornado will remain possible through the late evening.

Non-thunderstorm winds will increase tonight with gusts to around
30 mph possible by daybreak across southeast Kansas and far
southwestern Missouri.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Very windy conditions can be expected Wednesday with
northwesterly winds gusting up to 40 mph.

Patchy to areas of frost will be possible Thursday night as low
temperatures fall into the lower to middle 30s.

The next chance of thunderstorms will arrive Sunday night into
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed in the next three hours for
areas along and east of U.S. 65.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
933 PM CDT TUE APR 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0932 PM     HAIL             5 NE PHILLIPSBURG       37.60N 92.72W
04/04/2017  E1.00 INCH       LACLEDE            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL NEAR EXIT 123
            ON I44.

&&

RFRYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1017 PM CDT TUE APR 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HAIL             WAYNESVILLE             37.83N 92.20W
04/04/2017  E1.00 INCH       PULASKI            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN WAYNESVILLE.

&&

RFRYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1038 PM CDT TUE APR 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 PM     HAIL             4 NE PHILLIPSBURG       37.60N 92.74W
04/04/2017  E1.75 INCH       LACLEDE            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTER BETWEEN
            PHILLIPSBURG AND LEBANON. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

RFRYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1110 PM CDT TUE APR 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1109 PM     HAIL             WILLOW SPRINGS          36.99N 91.97W
04/04/2017  E1.00 INCH       HOWELL             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGERS REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN WILLOW
            SPRINGS.

&&

RFRYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1111 PM CDT TUE APR 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     HAIL             WILLOW SPRINGS          36.99N 91.97W
04/04/2017  E1.50 INCH       HOWELL             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGERS REPORTED PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL IN
            WILLOW SPRINGS.

&&

RFRYE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 PM CDT TUE APR 04 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1006 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PONTIAC                 36.52N 92.60W
04/04/2017                   OZARK              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BARN DESTROYED IN PONTIAC. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR...POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

RFRYE