Areal Flood Warning 39, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
709 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

Currently seeing a break in the thunderstorm activity early this
afternoon, with clearing occurring across the southern portions
of the CWA. This has allowed temperatures to quickly warm into the
mid 70s where sun has broken through. Combined with dewpoints in
the mid to upper 60s, 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is in place across
the region, along with plenty of deep layer shear.

Convection has already started to develop across northeastern
Oklahoma, and should continue to expand in coverage toward the
north and east this afternoon and this evening. This initial
convection will yield a wind and especially a hail threat, with
very steep mid level lapse rates suggesting hail up to 2" in
diameter. There will also be a conditional tornado threat with any
storm that is able to move along the front or a mesoscale
boundary.

Convection will continue to develop into and through the evening
hours, and along with the severe weather threat, a localized flood
threat will be possible as well where multiple storms train over
the same area.

Convective intensity should begin to diminish late this evening,
though occasional rain and thunderstorms will continue through the
night as the upper level low swings through the area.

Rain will then end from northwest to southeast on Friday as the
front sweeps across. Temperatures tomorrow will be cooler, with
highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Skies will gradually clear
through the day, eventually becoming clear by evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

Beautiful conditions are then expected on Saturday as high
pressure builds into the region. Temperatures will be right around
average with light winds and clear skies. Southerly winds will
start to kick in on Sunday, helping to boost temperatures back
to around 80. Warm weather is then expected through at least mid
week, as southerly flow dominates. Rain chances really don't look
to increase again until at least mid week, or perhaps later.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 707 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Scattered thunderstorms will occur with a
frontal passage over the next few hours. Lower ceilings will
occur behind the front with mvfr/ifr ceilings expected.
Improvement is expected late in the taf period as clouds lift and
scatter out.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch until 3 AM CDT Friday for MOZ077-079>083-
     088>098-101>106.

KS...Flash Flood Watch until 3 AM CDT Friday for KSZ097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
344 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-122045-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
344 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Tornado risk.
  Significant Hail risk.
  Elevated Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated Flooding risk.
  Significant Lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

 Strong to severe storms will continue to move through the area
this afternoon and evening. Locations south of US Highway 54 has
the highest chance of being impacted by these storms. The primary
risk will be large hail...potentially up to the size of baseballs.
Damaging wind gusts to 60 mph are also possible. An isolated
tornado will be possible if thunderstorms are able to interact
with any boundaries in the area.

 Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with widespread 1-2
likely. A few 3-4 inch amounts are possible. This could result in
flash flooding and a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for mainly
areas along and south of Interstate 44.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

 The chance of thunderstorms will return during the middle and
 later part of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed for the rest of the afternoon
and evening for most of Southeast Kansas and Southwest Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
831 PM CDT THU MAY 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     FLASH FLOOD      RACINE                  36.89N 94.53W
05/11/2017                   NEWTON             MO   911 CALL CENTER

            HIGHWAY CC FLOODED AND IMPASSIBLE AT LOST
            CREEK.

&&

DSA