Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
222 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough of low pressure over the Mid-Mississippi
Valley will continue to eject upper level disturbances across
the forecast area tonight through Friday with an opportunity
for showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will sweep through
the area Saturday with a period of drying Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 222 PM EDT Thursday...

Several upper level disturbances will rotate eastward across the
region in the westerly upper level flow. The broad upper level
trough in the Ohio Valley will pivot eastward and amplify along the
East Coast during the weekend.

Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will
develop in the unstable air. The larger-scale forcing mechanisms are
hard to find. However, weak upper features combined with low level
boundaries and surface convergence, orographic lift with a healthy
instability should trigger convection. The 17z SPC mesoscale
analysis displayed sbcapes from 1000 to 2500 j/kg across forecast
area this afternoon.

There is a marginal threat for severe weather as highlighted on the
Day One Convective Outlook across the entire forecast area for this
afternoon and evening. The primary threat will be damaging winds
with water loading and thunderstorm clusters or line segments.
The potential for torrential downpours continues with high PWATs
above 1.5 inches and healthy rain efficiency. Will have to monitor
for water problems that received heavy rains recently. However,
the DAY 1 excessive rainfall placed marginal risk to our west
and north.

It will be another mild night with low temperatures from around 60
degrees in the mountains to around 70 degrees in the Piedmont.
The combination of light winds and low level moisture may result in
patches of fog overnight into Friday morning especially where it
rains.

As the upper trof settles in over the Eastern United States on
Friday, the initial shortwave will push through early Friday and
move a weak front across across the area. This looks like a
more progressive system which would allow some drier air to mix
down as Friday progresses. The latest Day 2 Convective Outlook
has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across southeast
West Virginia. The main threats will be damaging winds and heavy
downpours. High temperatures Friday will range from the lower
70s in the mountains to the near 90 degrees in the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 222 PM EDT Wednesday...

Some colder air aloft and a shortwave in the northern stream
trof Saturday, so locations ahead of the front will have
scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. Models showing upper
diffluence too during Saturday. Not much backing of the winds to
the southwest ahead of the front. NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS suggests
no precipitation in the Virginia and North Carolina piedmont
Friday night, perhaps because of deep western flow.

Have minimum temperatures Friday night ahead of the front
slightly warmer than guidance. Models consistent bring in lower
surface dewpoints and relatively cooler 850mb temperatures by
Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Thursday...

Starting with a 500 MB ridge from the southwest United States
to the northern Rockies and a long wave trough over the east. By
Thursday morning, the upper ridge will progress into the center
of the country. A short wave coming out of Pacific Northwest
over this ridge may reach the northeast United States on
Tuesday, potentially pushing a surface cold front toward the Mid
Atlantic region. Will have the highest probability for showers
and thunderstorms on Wednesday. 850MB temperatures warm back up
into the +16 to +20 range for Monday through Thursday. This will
keep temperatures just above normal for much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Thursday...

Solar heating will combine with instability to create
scattered MVFR showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into
tonight. There is the potential for an organized clustering of
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening associated with a
west to east moving mesoscale convective vortex. Storms
associated with this feature may contain wind gusts of 20-30kts
and will be associated with heavy rainfall.

With the loss of heating the deeper convection(thunderstorms)
will end. However, showers may linger tonight into Friday
morning. Will have to monitor for another round of thunderstorms
Friday morning in the western mountains. Light winds and low
level moisture may create patchy fog overnight especially where
it rains. MVFR showers and thunderstorms should develop Friday
afternoon.

Medium confidence on ceilings, visibilities and winds during
the taf period.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Unsettled weather is expected over the Mid-Atlantic region
into Friday night with additional opportunities for showers and
thunderstorms associated with areas of MVFR and local IFR
conditions. Generally VFR conditions are anticipated for the
weekend as dry northwesterly winds develops for a few days.
MVFR conditions could returns Monday and tuesday with showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...KK/PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
358 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

VAZ007-010-011-018-023-024-035-071200-
Tazewell-Bland-Giles-Craig-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Amherst-
358 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, southwest
Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms containing damaging
winds will be possible this afternoon and evening. Very heavy
rainfall could also result in localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms containing damaging
winds will be possible Friday and Friday night. Very heavy rainfall
could also result in localized flooding.

Saturday through Wednesday there is a low probability for widespread
hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009-012>017-022-032>034-043>047-058-059-071200-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Smyth-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Roanoke-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-
Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
358 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms containing damaging
winds will be possible this afternoon and evening. Very heavy
rainfall could also result in localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms containing damaging
winds will be possible Saturday. Very heavy rainfall could also
result in localized flooding.

Sunday through Wednesday there is a low probability for widespread
hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ019-020-WVZ042>044-507-508-071200-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
358 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few strong to isolated severe thunderstorms containing damaging
winds will be possible this afternoon and evening. Very heavy
rainfall could also result in localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
530 PM EDT THU JUL 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N BLAIRS              36.75N 79.38W
07/06/2017                   PITTSYLVANIA       VA   911 CALL CENTER

            POWER LINES DOWN ALONG U.S. 29.

&&

WHP

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