Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
222 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough of low pressure over the Mid-Mississippi
Valley will continue to eject upper level disturbances across
the forecast area tonight through Friday with an opportunity
for showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will sweep through
the area Saturday with a period of drying Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 222 PM EDT Thursday...

Several upper level disturbances will rotate eastward across the
region in the westerly upper level flow. The broad upper level
trough in the Ohio Valley will pivot eastward and amplify along the
East Coast during the weekend.

Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will
develop in the unstable air. The larger-scale forcing mechanisms are
hard to find. However, weak upper features combined with low level
boundaries and surface convergence, orographic lift with a healthy
instability should trigger convection. The 17z SPC mesoscale
analysis displayed sbcapes from 1000 to 2500 j/kg across forecast
area this afternoon.

There is a marginal threat for severe weather as highlighted on the
Day One Convective Outlook across the entire forecast area for this
afternoon and evening. The primary threat will be damaging winds
with water loading and thunderstorm clusters or line segments.
The potential for torrential downpours continues with high PWATs
above 1.5 inches and healthy rain efficiency. Will have to monitor
for water problems that received heavy rains recently. However,
the DAY 1 excessive rainfall placed marginal risk to our west
and north.

It will be another mild night with low temperatures from around 60
degrees in the mountains to around 70 degrees in the Piedmont.
The combination of light winds and low level moisture may result in
patches of fog overnight into Friday morning especially where it
rains.

As the upper trof settles in over the Eastern United States on
Friday, the initial shortwave will push through early Friday and
move a weak front across across the area. This looks like a
more progressive system which would allow some drier air to mix
down as Friday progresses. The latest Day 2 Convective Outlook
has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across southeast
West Virginia. The main threats will be damaging winds and heavy
downpours. High temperatures Friday will range from the lower
70s in the mountains to the near 90 degrees in the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 222 PM EDT Wednesday...

Some colder air aloft and a shortwave in the northern stream
trof Saturday, so locations ahead of the front will have
scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. Models showing upper
diffluence too during Saturday. Not much backing of the winds to
the southwest ahead of the front. NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEFS suggests
no precipitation in the Virginia and North Carolina piedmont
Friday night, perhaps because of deep western flow.

Have minimum temperatures Friday night ahead of the front
slightly warmer than guidance. Models consistent bring in lower
surface dewpoints and relatively cooler 850mb temperatures by
Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Thursday...

Starting with a 500 MB ridge from the southwest United States
to the northern Rockies and a long wave trough over the east. By
Thursday morning, the upper ridge will progress into the center
of the country. A short wave coming out of Pacific Northwest
over this ridge may reach the northeast United States on
Tuesday, potentially pushing a surface cold front toward the Mid
Atlantic region. Will have the highest probability for showers
and thunderstorms on Wednesday. 850MB temperatures warm back up
into the +16 to +20 range for Monday through Thursday. This will
keep temperatures just above normal for much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Thursday...

Solar heating will combine with instability to create
scattered MVFR showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into
tonight. There is the potential for an organized clustering of
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening associated with a
west to east moving mesoscale convective vortex. Storms
associated with this feature may contain wind gusts of 20-30kts
and will be associated with heavy rainfall.

With the loss of heating the deeper convection(thunderstorms)
will end. However, showers may linger tonight into Friday
morning. Will have to monitor for another round of thunderstorms
Friday morning in the western mountains. Light winds and low
level moisture may create patchy fog overnight especially where
it rains. MVFR showers and thunderstorms should develop Friday
afternoon.

Medium confidence on ceilings, visibilities and winds during
the taf period.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Unsettled weather is expected over the Mid-Atlantic region
into Friday night with additional opportunities for showers and
thunderstorms associated with areas of MVFR and local IFR
conditions. Generally VFR conditions are anticipated for the
weekend as dry northwesterly winds develops for a few days.
MVFR conditions could returns Monday and tuesday with showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...KK/PM

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
246 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017

NCZ003>005-061945-
Stokes-Surry-Rockingham-
246 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL SURRY...STOKES AND
SOUTHWESTERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES...

At 246 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Germanton,
moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mayodan...
Madison...
Pilot Mountain...
Walnut Cove...
and Danbury.

If you are on or near Belews Lake, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3626 8045 3642 8052 3647 7997 3625 7990
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 256DEG 19KT 3628 8019

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
250 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017

VAZ011-WVZ042>044-061945-
Giles-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
250 PM EDT THU JUL 6 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
CENTRAL GILES...SOUTH CENTRAL SUMMERS...MERCER AND SOUTHWESTERN
MONROE COUNTIES...

At 248 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Kegley, moving
east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Princeton...
Pearisburg...
Narrows...
Pembroke...
and Athens.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If you are on or near Bluestone Lake, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3742 8131 3741 8129 3742 8128 3746 8131
      3747 8128 3748 8127 3755 8062 3728 8062
      3729 8098 3730 8098 3730 8101 3731 8133
      3734 8136
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 268DEG 28KT 3741 8113

AS