Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2017
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Blacksburg, VA
NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 1, 2017, 12:00 PM EST for 7 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 60 min. 6 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 1, 2017, 12:00 PM EST (17:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 1, 2017, 1:00 PM EST
- In force
- 60 min
- Issued by
- NWS Blacksburg, VA
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Hail
- 0.75 in
- Wind
- 60.0 mph
Counties Bedford County, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Floyd County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Roanoke County, VA
The radar
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 17 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 12:00 PM EST | TSTM WND DMG | 1 Sse Christiansburg, VA | ALL HOMES IN THE 300 TO 400 BLOCK OF MILLER STREET HAD DOZENS OF SHINGLES BLOWN OFF THEIR ROOFS. A MATURE PINE TREE SNAPPED IN HALF AND FELL ON A HOME. A METAL SHED WAS BLOWN 75 TO 100 YARDS. |
| Mar 1, 12:08 PM EST | TSTM WND DMG | Glenvar, VA | TREE ESTIMATED AT 3-5 INCH DIAMETER BLOWN DOWN ACROSS MALUS DRIVE NEAR THE HIGH SCHOOL. |
| Mar 1, 12:10 PM EST | TSTM WND DMG | 4 Se Blacksburg, VA | FOUR LARGE TREES REPORTED DOWN ON ELLET ROAD |
| Mar 1, 12:14 PM EST | TSTM WND GST 59 | 4 Nnw Roanoke, VA | GUST RECORDED AT THE ROANOKE AIRPORT. |
| Mar 1, 12:16 PM EST | TSTM WND DMG | 1 Se Cave Spring, VA | LARGE TREE DOWN IN 5300 BLOCK OF EDEN AVENUE. TOOK OUT A FENCE BUT MISSED THE HOUSE. TIME ESIMATED BY RADAR. |
| Mar 1, 12:16 PM EST | TSTM WND DMG | Roanoke, VA | A LIGHT POLE FELL ON A CAR NEAR VALLEY VIEW MALL. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 6 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 0 minutes after it went out.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 10:38 AM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 4 hr |
The nearest sounding before it
Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 5.0 hours before the alert went out and 60 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 8 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -303 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 857 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 72 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 361 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 448 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
479
WUUS51 KRNK 011700
SVRRNK
VAC019-063-067-121-161-770-775-011800-
/O.NEW.KRNK.SV.W.0010.170301T1700Z-170301T1800Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1200 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017
The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Roanoke County in west central Virginia...
The City of Salem in west central Virginia...
Northern Floyd County in southwestern Virginia...
The City of Roanoke in west central Virginia...
Southwestern Bedford County in south central Virginia...
Franklin County in west central Virginia...
Southern Montgomery County in southwestern Virginia...
* Until 100 PM EST
* At 1159 AM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Abbott to near Christiansburg to Graysontown, moving
east at 60 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
Roanoke...
Salem...
Christiansburg...
Vinton...
and Rocky Mount.
This includes The following Locations The Salem Fairgrounds and
Roanoke Regional Airport.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Prepare immediately for damaging winds. For your safety, move to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Stay away
from windows.
When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.
&&
LAT...LON 3685 8008 3687 8023 3696 8056 3699 8054
3705 8057 3705 8054 3709 8058 3739 8000
3713 7951 3705 7960 3686 7964 3679 7976
3683 8000 3679 8003 3678 8001 3678 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 280DEG 52KT 3744 8015 3716 8035 3705 8054
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
$$
JJM5 follow-up statements
480
WWUS51 KRNK 011715
SVSRNK
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1215 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017
VAC019-063-067-121-161-770-775-011800-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-170301T1800Z/
Roanoke VA-City of Salem VA-Floyd VA-City of Roanoke VA-Bedford VA-
Franklin VA-Montgomery VA-
1215 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EST
FOR
EASTERN ROANOKE...NORTHERN FLOYD...SOUTHWESTERN BEDFORD...FRANKLIN
AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...THE EASTERN CITY OF SALEM AND
THE CITY OF ROANOKE...
At 1215 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Troutville to near Bent Mountain to near Terrys Fork,
moving east at 60 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
Locations impacted include...
Roanoke...
Salem...
Vinton...
Rocky Mount...
and Floyd.
This includes The following Locations The Salem Fairgrounds and
Roanoke Regional Airport.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Prepare immediately for DAMAGING WINDS. For your safety, move to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Stay away
from windows.
If on or near Smith Mountain Lake, get away from the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. remember, lightning can strike out to
15 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.
&&
LAT...LON 3685 8008 3687 8023 3696 8056 3711 8023
3738 7997 3713 7951 3705 7960 3686 7964
3679 7976 3683 8000 3679 8003 3678 8001
3678 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 1715Z 280DEG 52KT 3740 7989 3712 8009 3701 8028
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
$$
JJM973
WWUS51 KRNK 011726
SVSRNK
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1226 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017
VAC121-775-011735-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-170301T1800Z/
City of Salem VA-Montgomery VA-
1226 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY AND THE EASTERN CITY OF SALEM IS
CANCELLED...
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.
A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 PM EST for
north central North Carolina...and south central, central,
southwestern and west central Virginia.
When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.
LAT...LON 3685 8008 3687 8023 3692 8038 3707 8014
3733 7987 3713 7951 3705 7960 3686 7964
3679 7976 3683 8000 3679 8003 3678 8001
3678 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 1725Z 280DEG 52KT 3738 7973 3710 7993 3699 8012
$$
VAC019-063-067-161-770-011800-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-170301T1800Z/
Roanoke VA-Floyd VA-City of Roanoke VA-Bedford VA-Franklin VA-
1226 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EST
FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ROANOKE...EAST CENTRAL FLOYD...SOUTHWESTERN BEDFORD AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CITY OF ROANOKE...
At 1225 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Montvale to Boones Mill to near Callaway, moving east
at 60 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
Locations impacted include...
Roanoke...
Vinton...
Rocky Mount...
Floyd...
and Boones Mill.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Prepare immediately for DAMAGING WINDS. For your safety, move to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Stay away
from windows.
If on or near Smith Mountain Lake, get away from the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. remember, lightning can strike out to
15 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.
&&
LAT...LON 3685 8008 3687 8023 3692 8038 3707 8014
3733 7987 3713 7951 3705 7960 3686 7964
3679 7976 3683 8000 3679 8003 3678 8001
3678 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 1725Z 280DEG 52KT 3738 7973 3710 7993 3699 8012
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
$$
JJM069
WWUS51 KRNK 011736
SVSRNK
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1236 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017
VAC063-161-770-011746-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-170301T1800Z/
Roanoke VA-Floyd VA-City of Roanoke VA-
1236 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ROANOKE...AND EAST CENTRAL FLOYD COUNTIES AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN CITY OF ROANOKE IS CANCELLED...
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.
A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 PM EST for
north central North Carolina...and south central, central,
southwestern and west central Virginia.
When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.
LAT...LON 3688 8011 3699 7999 3728 7978 3713 7951
3705 7960 3686 7964 3679 7976 3683 8000
3679 8003 3678 8001 3678 8003 3685 8008
3685 8009
TIME...MOT...LOC 1736Z 280DEG 52KT 3736 7956 3708 7976 3697 7995
$$
VAC019-067-011800-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-170301T1800Z/
Bedford VA-Franklin VA-
1236 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EST
FOR
SOUTHWESTERN BEDFORD AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES...
At 1236 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Bedford to near Western Smith Mountain Lake to
near Rocky Mount, moving east at 60 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
Locations impacted include...
Rocky Mount...
Sydnorsville...
Ferrum...
Moneta...
and Penhook.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Prepare immediately for DAMAGING WINDS. For your safety, move to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Stay away
from windows.
If on or near Smith Mountain Lake, get away from the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. remember, lightning can strike out to
15 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.
&&
LAT...LON 3688 8011 3699 7999 3728 7978 3713 7951
3705 7960 3686 7964 3679 7976 3683 8000
3679 8003 3678 8001 3678 8003 3685 8008
3685 8009
TIME...MOT...LOC 1736Z 280DEG 52KT 3736 7956 3708 7976 3697 7995
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
$$
JJM133
WWUS51 KRNK 011748
SVSRNK
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1248 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017
VAC019-067-011800-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-170301T1800Z/
Bedford VA-Franklin VA-
1248 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EST
FOR
SOUTHWESTERN BEDFORD AND EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES...
At 1248 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Goode to near Smith Mountain Lake State Park to
near Sontag, moving east at 60 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
Locations impacted include...
Rocky Mount...
Sydnorsville...
Moneta...
Penhook...
and Snow Creek.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Prepare immediately for DAMAGING WINDS. For your safety, move to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Stay away
from windows.
If on or near Smith Mountain Lake, get away from the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. remember, lightning can strike out to
15 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.
When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.
&&
LAT...LON 3713 7951 3705 7960 3686 7964 3679 7976
3683 8000 3679 8003 3679 8004 3680 8004
3704 7985 3722 7968
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 280DEG 52KT 3733 7935 3705 7955 3694 7974
HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
$$
JJM124
WWUS51 KRNK 011752
SVSRNK
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1252 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017
VAC019-067-011801-
/O.EXP.KRNK.SV.W.0010.000000T0000Z-170301T1800Z/
Bedford VA-Franklin VA-
1252 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR
SOUTHWESTERN BEDFORD AND EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 100
PM EST...
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned
area. Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.
However gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with these
thunderstorms.
A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 PM EST for
north central North Carolina...and south central, central,
southwestern and west central Virginia.
When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.
LAT...LON 3713 7951 3705 7960 3686 7964 3679 7976
3683 8000 3679 8003 3679 8004 3680 8004
3704 7985 3722 7968
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 277DEG 49KT 3724 7942 3708 7961 3694 7972
$$
JJMWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 1, 10:02 AM EST, 1 hour 58 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 1, 10:02 AM EST, 1 hour 58 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1002 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front extends from the Great Lakes into the Mid- Mississippi Valley. This front will move east today, crossing the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, then across the Appalachians during the late afternoon and evening. The front will be accompanied by strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds. Passage of the front tonight will bring an end to the showers and storms, however it will remain blustery and turn much colder for the later half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM EST Wednesday... Updated PoPs to place the arrival of showers and thunderstorms in the west to later this morning. We may see line of convection fall apart a bit as it encounters dry air over the south-central Appalachains. However, strong winds/gusts will still be a threat ahead and with the line as it tracks over the mountains. Arrival time of the storms east of the Blue Ridge will be this afternoon into this evening. We believe the stronger storms for the area will occur south of highway 460. This area did not see much in the way of rain the past 24 hours, therefore heating and instabilities will be greater. As of 500 AM EST Wednesday... Today's focus is centered around sharp upper level trough of low pressure which extends from the Great lakes into the MS Valley. Solid line of thunderstorms was ongoing along the surface front this morning from northern Ohio to central Arkansas. There was also a large area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms well ahead of the squall line moving through the Ohio Valley into western West Virginia and Pennsylvania. Short term models keep the leading clustering of showers/storms mainly north and west of our CWA this morning, with main focus for our sensible weather coming from the squall line associated with the actual cold front which will arrive later in the afternoon, then sweeping across the CWA during the late afternoon and evening. As has been advertised for the last couple of days, front is expected to come through during or just after the peak heating part of the day, with models waffling plus or minus 3 to 6 hours on the actual time of FROPA. Severe threat has remained consistent with primary focus on the high wind shear and potential for damaging thunderstorm winds. Isolated threats still exists for hail and short lived tornadoes. Per the Storm Prediction Center, a pronounced mid-level short wave trough will move northeast across the OH Valley today, then into NY/PA tonight. 500mb flow will increase above 100kt along this corridor with 12hr mid-level height falls expected to increase to near 240m across the northeastern states. Strong forcing for ascent and cloud-layer mean flow on the order of 75kts will prove favorable for damaging winds, with potential for discrete supercells from OH/KY east into WV and far western VA, and a QLCS to follow, this Quasi-Linear Convective System translating the Appalachians during the afternoon and entering the piedmont of VA/NC this evening. At this time it appears damaging winds will be the primary severe threat as frontal convection should maintain linear characteristics with the potential for bowing structures. Given strong cloud-layer flow, storms will be fast moving with little residence time. This should keep rainfall amounts under an inch mitigating potential for excessive rainfall for our CWA. Temperatures today will be well above normal, especially across the piedmont where there will be an opportunity for some sunshine for the first half of the day. Would not be surprised to see locations from Danville south and eastward test 80 degrees this afternoon. Tonight's FROPA will bring falling temperatures and blustery northwest winds. Will likely need a wind advisory for parts of the CWA tonight with some models indicating post frontal wind gusts of 40 kts across the crest of the Blue Ridge. Will refrain from posting this headline attm as not to distract from today's greater convective hazard. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 AM EST Wednesday... Strong cold front will be accelerating off the east coast at the beginning of the period with Canadian high pressure building in from the northern Plains as the upper flow transitions to northwest and remains in place through this period of the forecast. With the exception of some potential lingering upslope snow showers across eastern WV, precipitation will end prior to the beginning of this forecast period. Upslope conditions are not particularly favorable either given a west versus northwest flow. Wind speeds will still be an issue Thursday morning and as noted in the near term section, a Wind Advisory will likely be in effect at the beginning of this time period. Winds will diminish through the day, however, as high pressure builds into the area. Temperatures Thursday will be much colder than what we will see today but really not atypical for the first of March. The contrast between 850mb temps around +15C today and surface temps in the 70s vs. 850mb temps around -5C and surface temps in the 40s will be quite noticeable, however, but just near normal. On Friday, a clipper system is expected to track across the OH Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic coast bringing a period of upslope snow showers to the Alleghanys of eastern WV and perhaps some light snow showers or flurries as far south as the I-81 corridor in southwest VA. Western Greenbrier county WV could pick up 1/2 inch of snow with this event. Wind will be the main issue, however, as the clipper passes to the east a Wind Advisory may again need to be considered. The clipper will bring an even more notable surge of cold air to the region resulting in a couple of days of below normal temperatures for a change as we head into Saturday. 850mb temps are progged to drop toward -12C or so by Saturday morning which will bring temperatures down into the teens west to the 20s east. While the frost/freeze program has not yet began in the RNK CWA, nor would even normally be considering such at the beginning of March, the repeated record warmth in February has resulted in premature blooming of plants and trees, which may need to be considered with the well below freezing temperatures expected Friday into Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 415 AM EST Wednesday... Models continue to differ on timing and intensity of the next system slated to affect the area during the first half of next week. The ECMWF remains faster and weaker than the GFS with the Euro having the front through us Monday night and the GFS not until Tuesday night-Wednesday. The timing and intensity issues center around considerable uncertainty in the North Pacific upper flow. WPC and trends favor the ECMWF, which will result in less threat of showers for our region as main axis of convergence and lift stay further north with the low. Given the flow in the mid levels is more westerly, it appears any showers will diminish east of the mountains. Will see high pressure move offshore Saturday into Sunday with increasing clouds and chance of showers Monday into Tuesday west of the Blue Ridge with lesser threat east. After a cold start to the weekend, temperatures are generally expected to be well above normal through this period as 850mb temps climb back into the low end double-digit levels again. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 0700 AM EST Wednesday... Very active weather pattern today. Solid line of thunderstorms will accompany the passage of a strong cold front this afternoon. Strong to Severe storms with wind gusts of 35 to 50 kts are possible. Storms will originate from the Ohio Valley this morning, crossing the mountains around mid-day, then translating east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon and to along the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight. vfr conditions this morning will deteriorate to MVFR cigs by mid-day with Temporary IFR/LIFR associated with passage of a squall line this afternoon. In addition to the squall line, strong southwest winds aloft will result in LLWS this morning. Once the line of deep convection passes, strong northwest winds will develop with non-convective gusts of 25 to 40 kts across the Blue Ridge tonight early Thursday. Dry high pressure with return of VFR is expected Thursday. Medium confidence in cigs throughout the TAF valid period. Lower confidence in vsbys throughout the TAF valid period. Medium to high confidence in wind speed/direction throughout the TAF valid period. Extended Aviation Discussion... Another weak clipper looks to track just north of the region by Friday with possible mountain MVFR due to upslope cloudiness, and possible light precipitation western ridges later Thursday night into Friday. High pressures builds in with VFR expected Friday night through most of the weekend. && .CLIMATE... As of 330 AM EST Monday... Record warm Mins for March 1 Roanoke.....52 in 1918 Lynchburg...57 in 1910 Danville....51 in 2012 Blacksburg..45 in 1997 Bluefield...56 in 1997 Record highs for March 1 Roanoke.....76 in 1972 Lynchburg...78 in 1918 Danville....80 in 1972 Blacksburg..72 in 1976 Bluefield...78 in 1997 && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM/RCS SHORT TERM...RAB LONG TERM...RAB/WP AVIATION...PM CLIMATE...AMS
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 1, 10:43 AM EST, 1 hour 17 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1043 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017 NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-021545- Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Patrick-Franklin- Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham- Halifax-Charlotte- 1043 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 56 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia and west central Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-021545- Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski- Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke- Botetourt-Rockbridge-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier- Western Greenbrier- 1043 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 56 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Another fast moving front will move through the area Friday morning bringing a period of strong post frontal winds with gusts near 45 mph. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. RCS
In the hours before
Local storm report, Mar 1, 11:43 AM EST, 17 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1143 AM EST WED MAR 01 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1109 AM TSTM WND GST BLUEFIELD 37.27N 81.22W
03/01/2017 M60 MPH MERCER WV ASOS
BLF ASOS MEASURED 52 KNOTS.
&&
PCLocal storm report, Mar 1, 11:50 AM EST, 10 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1150 AM EST WED MAR 01 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1142 AM TSTM WND DMG COVINGTON CITY 37.78N 79.98W
03/01/2017 CITY OF COVINGTON VA TRAINED SPOTTER
SEVERAL 4-INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES DOWN.
&&
PCSpecial weather statement, Mar 1, 11:51 AM EST, 9 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1151 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017
VAZ018>020-023-024-011745-
Botetourt-Bath-Craig-Rockbridge-Alleghany-
1151 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
EASTERN ALLEGHANY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...NORTHEASTERN
CRAIG COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...ROCKBRIDGE...EASTERN BATH AND
BOTETOURT COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE CITY OF BUENA VISTA
AND THE CITY OF LEXINGTON...
At 1151 AM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Burnsville to Iron Gate. Movement
was east at 80 mph.
Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.
Locations impacted include...
Lexington...
Buena Vista...
Clifton Forge...
Buchanan...
and Glasgow.
This includes The following Location VMI.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
LAT...LON 3818 7952 3815 7953 3814 7946 3809 7949
3792 7919 3785 7914 3780 7918 3779 7927
3766 7935 3761 7946 3757 7943 3745 7959
3748 7968 3741 7981 3738 7977 3731 7985
3741 8007 3748 8002 3755 8009 3820 7955
TIME...MOT...LOC 1651Z 268DEG 70KT 3814 7956 3781 7978
JJMLocal storm report, Mar 1, 11:54 AM EST, 6 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1154 AM EST WED MAR 01 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1050 AM TSTM WND DMG RAINELLE 37.97N 80.78W
03/01/2017 GREENBRIER WV PUBLIC
TREE DOWN IN RAINELLE
&&
PCLocal storm report, Mar 1, 11:59 AM EST, 1 minute before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1159 AM EST WED MAR 01 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1155 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 NE BLACKSBURG 37.25N 80.39W
03/01/2017 MONTGOMERY VA NWS EMPLOYEE
TREE APROXIMATELY 8-10 INCH DIAMETER SNAPPED OFF
MID-TRUNK.
&&
PCLocal storm report, Mar 1, 12:00 PM EST, 0 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1200 PM EST WED MAR 01 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 SE RUPERT 37.94N 80.67W
03/01/2017 GREENBRIER WV PUBLIC
TREE REPORTED DOWN IN CRAWLEY.
&&
PCThe office that day
Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 10:43 AM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Bland, Tazewell | 62 min |
| Mar 1, 10:52 AM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Bland, Smyth, Tazewell | 38 min |
| Mar 1, 11:18 AM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Bland, Craig, Giles, Pulaski | 42 min |
| Mar 1, 11:21 AM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Alleghany, Bath, City of Covington | 39 min |
| Mar 1, 11:30 AM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Bland, Pulaski, Smyth, Wythe, City of Radford | 60 min |
| Mar 1, 11:42 AM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Alleghany, Botetourt, Craig, Giles, Montgomery, Roanoke | 48 min |
| Mar 1, 11:51 AM EST | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Botetourt, Rockbridge, City of Buena Vista, City of Lexington | 54 min |
| Mar 1, 11:57 AM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Amherst, Bedford, Botetourt, Rockbridge, City of Buena Vista, City of Lexington | 63 min |
| Mar 1, 12:23 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Grayson, Smyth | 37 min |
| Mar 1, 12:33 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Amherst, Appomattox, Buckingham, Campbell, City of Lynchburg | 58 min |
| Mar 1, 12:43 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Appomattox, Bedford, Campbell, Halifax, Pittsylvania, City of Lynchburg | 45 min |
| Mar 1, 1:10 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Grayson | 65 min |
| Mar 1, 2:38 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Pittsylvania | 37 min |
| Mar 1, 3:09 PM EST | Wind Advisory | RNK | Alleghany, Bath, Bland, Botetourt, Carroll, Craig and 17 more | 21 hr |
| Mar 1, 3:18 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Franklin | 27 min |
| Mar 1, 4:34 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | RNK | City of Danville | 26 min |
| Mar 1, 5:56 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Carroll, Pulaski, City of Galax, City of Radford | 34 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Virginia, 2017Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.