Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2017

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Blacksburg, VA

March 1, 20176 counties in Virginia

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 1, 2017, 11:57 AM EST for 6 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 63 min. 10 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Mar 1, 2017, 11:57 AM EST (16:57 UTC)
Expired
Mar 1, 2017, 1:00 PM EST
In force
63 min
Issued by
NWS Blacksburg, VA
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
0.75 in
Wind
60.0 mph

Counties Amherst County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Lexington, VA, Rockbridge County, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Mar 1, 11:57 AM ESTTSTM WND DMG7 S Millboro, VAONE TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN IN THE 200 BLOCK OF WATERLOO DRIVE.
Mar 1, 11:58 AM ESTTSTM WND DMG6 Wsw Rockbridge Baths, VAONE TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN IN THE 3700 BLOCK OF WEST MIDLAND TRAIL.
Mar 1, 12:01 PM ESTTSTM WND DMG4 Ne Collierstown, VATHREE TO FOUR TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN THE 600 BLOCK OF SUGAR CREEK ROAD.
Mar 1, 12:18 PM ESTTSTM WND DMGBuena Vista City, VA2 TREES AND A POWER LINE DOWN IN THE CITY OF BUENA VISTA. 3 MORE TREES DOWN IN ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY.
Mar 1, 12:30 PM ESTTSTM WND DMG1 S Big Island, VATHUNDERSTORM WINDS SNAPPED AN 18 INCH BRANCH OFF A TREE.
Mar 1, 12:30 PM ESTTSTM WND DMG1 S Big Island, VATHUNDERSTORM WINDS SNAPPED AN 18 INCH BRANCH OFF A TREE. REPORT RELAYED THROUGH FACEBOOK.
Mar 1, 12:35 PM ESTTSTM WND DMGTroutville, VAROOF TORN OFF A BARN IN TROUTVILLE.
Mar 1, 12:57 PM ESTTSTM WND DMG7 S Millboro, VAONE TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN IN THE 200 BLOCK OF WATERLOO DRIVE.
Mar 1, 12:58 PM ESTTSTM WND DMG6 Wsw Rockbridge Baths, VAONE TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN IN THE 3700 BLOCK OF WEST MIDLAND TRAIL.
Mar 1, 1:01 PM ESTTSTM WND DMG4 Ne Collierstown, VATHREE TO FOUR TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN THE 600 BLOCK OF SUGAR CREEK ROAD.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 9 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 0 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Mar 1, 10:38 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPC4 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 5.0 hours before the alert went out and 51 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2017-03-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 8 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2017-03-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 361 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
8 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-303 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
857 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
72 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
361 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
448 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

749 
WUUS51 KRNK 011657
SVRRNK
VAC009-019-023-163-530-678-011800-
/O.NEW.KRNK.SV.W.0009.170301T1657Z-170301T1800Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1157 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  The City of Buena Vista in west central Virginia...
  The City of Lexington in west central Virginia...
  Rockbridge County in west central Virginia...
  Central Amherst County in central Virginia...
  Bedford County in south central Virginia...
  Central Botetourt County in west central Virginia...

* Until 100 PM EST

* At 1156 AM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Yost to near Collierstown to near New Castle,
  moving east at 75 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

* Locations impacted include...
  Lexington...
  Buena Vista...
  Bedford...
  Buchanan...
  and Glasgow.

This includes The following Locations VMI and The National D-Day
Memorial.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for damaging winds. For your safety, move to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Stay away
from windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3789 7915 3786 7915 3781 7917 3781 7914
      3778 7911 3778 7908 3772 7907 3771 7904
      3747 7919 3745 7927 3743 7927 3734 7933
      3713 7951 3730 7984 3733 7987 3738 7998
      3785 7961 3787 7965 3808 7948
TIME...MOT...LOC 1656Z 272DEG 64KT 3813 7950 3777 7966 3752 8004 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JJM
5 follow-up statements
512 
WWUS51 KRNK 011717
SVSRNK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1217 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017

VAC009-019-023-163-530-678-011800-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170301T1800Z/
City of Buena Vista VA-City of Lexington VA-Rockbridge VA-Amherst VA-
Bedford VA-Botetourt VA-
1217 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EST
FOR
ROCKBRIDGE...CENTRAL AMHERST...BEDFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN BOTETOURT
COUNTIES...THE CITY OF BUENA VISTA AND THE CITY OF LEXINGTON...

At 1217 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Staunton to Cornwall to near Arcadia, moving east
at 70 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Lexington...
Buena Vista...
Bedford...
Buchanan...
and Glasgow.

This includes The following Locations VMI and The National D-Day
Memorial.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for DAMAGING WINDS. For your safety, move to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Stay away
from windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3789 7915 3786 7915 3781 7917 3781 7914
      3778 7911 3778 7908 3772 7907 3771 7904
      3747 7919 3745 7927 3743 7927 3734 7933
      3713 7951 3730 7984 3733 7987 3738 7998
      3800 7935
TIME...MOT...LOC 1717Z 269DEG 62KT 3812 7905 3779 7927 3753 7961 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JJM
492 
WWUS51 KRNK 011724
SVSRNK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1224 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017

VAC678-011734-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170301T1800Z/
City of Lexington VA-
1224 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR 
THE CITY OF LEXINGTON IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area.Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 PM EST for
central, south central, southwestern and west central Virginia.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.

LAT...LON 3789 7915 3786 7915 3781 7917 3781 7914
      3778 7911 3778 7908 3772 7907 3771 7904
      3747 7919 3745 7927 3743 7927 3734 7933
      3713 7951 3730 7984 3745 7974 3790 7918
TIME...MOT...LOC 1724Z 271DEG 62KT 3812 7889 3776 7917 3753 7945 

$$

VAC009-019-023-163-530-011800-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170301T1800Z/
City of Buena Vista VA-Rockbridge VA-Amherst VA-Bedford VA-
Botetourt VA-
1224 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EST
FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ROCKBRIDGE...CENTRAL AMHERST...BEDFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN
BOTETOURT COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF BUENA VISTA...

At 1224 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Waynesboro to near Alto to near Sedalia, moving
east at 70 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Buena Vista...
Bedford...
Glasgow...
Forks Of Buffalo...
and Huddleston.

This includes The following Location The National D-Day Memorial.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for DAMAGING WINDS. For your safety, move to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Stay away
from windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3789 7915 3786 7915 3781 7917 3781 7914
      3778 7911 3778 7908 3772 7907 3771 7904
      3747 7919 3745 7927 3743 7927 3734 7933
      3713 7951 3730 7984 3745 7974 3790 7918
TIME...MOT...LOC 1724Z 271DEG 62KT 3812 7889 3776 7917 3753 7945 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JJM
381 
WWUS51 KRNK 011735
SVSRNK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1235 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017

VAC023-163-530-011744-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170301T1800Z/
City of Buena Vista VA-Rockbridge VA-Botetourt VA-
1235 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR 
SOUTHEASTERN ROCKBRIDGE AND SOUTHEASTERN BOTETOURT COUNTIES AND THE
CITY OF BUENA VISTA IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 PM EST for
central, south central, southwestern and west central Virginia.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.

LAT...LON 3778 7911 3778 7908 3772 7907 3771 7904
      3747 7919 3745 7927 3743 7927 3734 7933
      3713 7951 3728 7979 3759 7936 3780 7918
      3781 7916 3781 7914
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 272DEG 64KT 3811 7866 3775 7894 3752 7922 

$$

VAC009-019-011800-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170301T1800Z/
Amherst VA-Bedford VA-
1235 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EST
FOR
CENTRAL AMHERST AND CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTIES...

At 1234 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Crozet to near Shipman to near Naola, moving east
at 75 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Bedford...
Forks Of Buffalo...
Huddleston...
Big Island...
and Forest.

This includes The following Location The National D-Day Memorial.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for DAMAGING WINDS. For your safety, move to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Stay away
from windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3778 7911 3778 7908 3772 7907 3771 7904
      3747 7919 3745 7927 3743 7927 3734 7933
      3713 7951 3728 7979 3759 7936 3780 7918
      3781 7916 3781 7914
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 272DEG 64KT 3811 7866 3775 7894 3752 7922 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JJM
818 
WWUS51 KRNK 011747
SVSRNK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1247 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017

VAC009-011755-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170301T1800Z/
Amherst VA-
1247 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR 
CENTRAL AMHERST COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 PM EST for
central, south central and west central Virginia.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.

LAT...LON 3745 7927 3743 7927 3734 7933 3713 7951
      3725 7972 3738 7953 3749 7932
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 272DEG 64KT 3810 7840 3774 7869 3751 7897 

$$

VAC019-011800-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170301T1800Z/
Bedford VA-
1247 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM EST
FOR
CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTY...

At 1245 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line 
extending from near Charlottesville to Schuyler to near Riverville, 
moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Bedford...
Huddleston...
Forest...
Chamblissburg...
and Goode.

This includes The following Location The National D-Day Memorial.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for DAMAGING WINDS. For your safety, move to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Stay away
from windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3745 7927 3743 7927 3734 7933 3713 7951
      3725 7972 3738 7953 3749 7932
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 272DEG 64KT 3810 7840 3774 7869 3751 7897 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

JJM
759 
WWUS51 KRNK 011753
SVSRNK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1253 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017

VAC019-011803-
/O.EXP.KRNK.SV.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170301T1800Z/
Bedford VA-
1253 PM EST WED MAR 1 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR 
CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 100 PM EST...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 PM EST for
central, south central and west central Virginia.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
the far eastern portions of Bedrod County and the City of Lynchburg.

LAT...LON 3745 7927 3743 7927 3734 7933 3713 7951
      3725 7972 3738 7953 3749 7932
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 272DEG 64KT 3810 7825 3774 7854 3751 7882 

$$

JJM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 1, 10:02 AM EST, 1 hour 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 1, 10:02 AM EST, 1 hour 55 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1002 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front extends from the Great Lakes into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley. This front will move east today, crossing
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, then across the Appalachians
during the late afternoon and evening. The front will be
accompanied by strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds.
Passage of the front tonight will bring an end to the showers
and storms, however it will remain blustery and turn much
colder for the later half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM EST Wednesday...

Updated PoPs to place the arrival of showers and thunderstorms
in the west to later this morning. We may see line of
convection fall apart a bit as it encounters dry air over the
south-central Appalachains. However, strong winds/gusts will
still be a threat ahead and with the line as it tracks over the
mountains.

Arrival time of the storms east of the Blue Ridge will be this
afternoon into this evening. We believe the stronger storms for
the area will occur south of highway 460. This area did not see
much in the way of rain the past 24 hours, therefore heating and
instabilities will be greater.

As of 500 AM EST Wednesday...

Today's focus is centered around sharp upper level trough of
low pressure which extends from the Great lakes into the MS
Valley. Solid line of thunderstorms was ongoing along the
surface front this morning from northern Ohio to central
Arkansas. There was also a large area of showers, with embedded
thunderstorms well ahead of the squall line moving through the
Ohio Valley into western West Virginia and Pennsylvania. Short
term models keep the leading clustering of showers/storms mainly
north and west of our CWA this morning, with main focus for our
sensible weather coming from the squall line associated with
the actual cold front which will arrive later in the afternoon,
then sweeping across the CWA during the late afternoon and
evening.

As has been advertised for the last couple of days, front is
expected to come through during or just after the peak heating
part of the day, with models waffling plus or minus 3 to 6 hours
on the actual time of FROPA. Severe threat has remained
consistent with primary focus on the high wind shear and
potential for damaging thunderstorm winds. Isolated threats
still exists for hail and short lived tornadoes.

Per the Storm Prediction Center, a pronounced mid-level short
wave trough will move northeast across the OH Valley today, then
into NY/PA tonight. 500mb flow will increase above 100kt along
this corridor with 12hr mid-level height falls expected to
increase to near 240m across the northeastern states. Strong
forcing for ascent and cloud-layer mean flow on the order of
75kts will prove favorable for damaging winds, with potential
for discrete supercells from OH/KY east into WV and far western
VA, and a QLCS to follow, this Quasi-Linear Convective System
translating the Appalachians during the afternoon and entering
the piedmont of VA/NC this evening. At this time it appears
damaging winds will be the primary severe threat as frontal
convection should maintain linear characteristics with the
potential for bowing structures.

Given strong cloud-layer flow, storms will be fast moving with
little residence time. This should keep rainfall amounts under
an inch mitigating potential for excessive rainfall for our CWA.

Temperatures today will be well above normal, especially across
the piedmont where there will be an opportunity for some
sunshine for the first half of the day. Would not be surprised
to see locations from Danville south and eastward test 80
degrees this afternoon.

Tonight's FROPA will bring falling temperatures and blustery
northwest winds. Will likely need a wind advisory for parts of
the CWA tonight with some models indicating post frontal wind
gusts of 40 kts across the crest of the Blue Ridge. Will refrain
from posting this headline attm as not to distract from today's
greater convective hazard.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EST Wednesday...

Strong cold front will be accelerating off the east coast at the
beginning of the period with Canadian high pressure building in
from the northern Plains as the upper flow transitions to
northwest and remains in place through this period of the
forecast. With the exception of some potential lingering upslope
snow showers across eastern WV, precipitation will end prior to
the beginning of this forecast period. Upslope conditions are
not particularly favorable either given a west versus northwest
flow. Wind speeds will still be an issue Thursday morning and as
noted in the near term section, a Wind Advisory will likely be
in effect at the beginning of this time period. Winds will
diminish through the day, however, as high pressure builds into
the area.

Temperatures Thursday will be much colder than what we will see
today but really not atypical for the first of March. The
contrast between 850mb temps around +15C today and surface temps
in the 70s vs. 850mb temps around -5C and surface temps in the
40s will be quite noticeable, however, but just near normal.

On Friday, a clipper system is expected to track across the OH
Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic coast bringing a period of
upslope snow showers to the Alleghanys of eastern WV and perhaps
some light snow showers or flurries as far south as the I-81
corridor in southwest VA. Western Greenbrier county WV could
pick up 1/2 inch of snow with this event. Wind will be the main
issue, however, as the clipper passes to the east a Wind
Advisory may again need to be considered. The clipper will bring
an even more notable surge of cold air to the region resulting
in a couple of days of below normal temperatures for a change as
we head into Saturday. 850mb temps are progged to drop toward
-12C or so by Saturday morning which will bring temperatures
down into the teens west to the 20s east. While the frost/freeze
program has not yet began in the RNK CWA, nor would even
normally be considering such at the beginning of March, the
repeated record warmth in February has resulted in premature
blooming of plants and trees, which may need to be considered
with the well below freezing temperatures expected Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EST Wednesday...

Models continue to differ on timing and intensity of the next
system slated to affect the area during the first half of next
week. The ECMWF remains faster and weaker than the GFS with the
Euro having the front through us Monday night and the GFS not
until Tuesday night-Wednesday. The timing and intensity issues
center around considerable uncertainty in the North Pacific
upper flow. WPC and trends favor the ECMWF, which will result in
less threat of showers for our region as main axis of
convergence and lift stay further north with the low. Given the
flow in the mid levels is more westerly, it appears any showers
will diminish east of the mountains.

Will see high pressure move offshore Saturday into Sunday with
increasing clouds and chance of showers Monday into Tuesday west of
the Blue Ridge with lesser threat east. After a cold start to
the weekend, temperatures are generally expected to be well
above normal through this period as 850mb temps climb back into
the low end double-digit levels again.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 0700 AM EST Wednesday...

Very active weather pattern today.

Solid line of thunderstorms will accompany the passage of a
strong cold front this afternoon. Strong to Severe storms with
wind gusts of 35 to 50 kts are possible. Storms will originate
from the Ohio Valley this morning, crossing the mountains around
mid-day, then translating east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon
and to along the Mid-Atlantic Coast tonight.

vfr conditions this morning will deteriorate to MVFR cigs by
mid-day with Temporary IFR/LIFR associated with passage of a
squall line this afternoon. In addition to the squall line,
strong southwest winds aloft will result in LLWS this morning.
Once the line of deep convection passes, strong northwest winds
will develop with non-convective gusts of 25 to 40 kts across
the Blue Ridge tonight early Thursday.

Dry high pressure with return of VFR is expected Thursday.

Medium confidence in cigs throughout the TAF valid period.
Lower confidence in vsbys throughout the TAF valid period.
Medium to high confidence in wind speed/direction throughout the
TAF valid period.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Another weak clipper looks to track just north of the region by
Friday with possible mountain MVFR due to upslope cloudiness,
and possible light precipitation western ridges later Thursday
night into Friday. High pressures builds in with VFR expected
Friday night through most of the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 330 AM EST Monday...

Record warm Mins for March 1

Roanoke.....52 in 1918
Lynchburg...57 in 1910
Danville....51 in 2012
Blacksburg..45 in 1997
Bluefield...56 in 1997

Record highs for March 1

Roanoke.....76 in 1972
Lynchburg...78 in 1918
Danville....80 in 1972
Blacksburg..72 in 1976
Bluefield...78 in 1997

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WP
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...AMS
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 1, 10:43 AM EST, 1 hour 14 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1043 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-021545-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Patrick-Franklin-
Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-
Halifax-Charlotte-
1043 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 56 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-021545-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-
Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
1043 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 56 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Another fast moving front will move through the area Friday
morning bringing a period of strong post frontal winds with
gusts near 45 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

RCS

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 1, 10:16 AM EST, 1 hour 41 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1016 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

VAZ007-009-010-WVZ042-011730-
Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Mercer-
Including the cities of Tazewell, Marion, Bland, Bluefield,
and Flat Top
1016 AM EST Wed Mar 1 2017

...Gusty Winds Ahead of Cold Front...

Southwest winds will gusts to 40 to 50 mph through early this
morning ahead of a line of convection tracking across southern
southern West Virginia and eastern Kentucky. Tree limbs or
branches could be blown down. Travel may be difficult for high
profile vehicles.

The line of convection is expected to enter this area between 11
AM and noon. The threat for strong winds will continue into early
this afternoon.

RCS
Local storm report, Mar 1, 11:43 AM EST, 14 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1143 AM EST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1109 AM     TSTM WND GST     BLUEFIELD               37.27N 81.22W
03/01/2017  M60 MPH          MERCER             WV   ASOS

            BLF ASOS MEASURED 52 KNOTS.

&&

PC
Local storm report, Mar 1, 11:50 AM EST, 7 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1150 AM EST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 AM     TSTM WND DMG     COVINGTON CITY          37.78N 79.98W
03/01/2017                   CITY OF COVINGTON  VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL 4-INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

PC
Special weather statement, Mar 1, 11:51 AM EST, 6 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1151 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

VAZ018>020-023-024-011745-
Botetourt-Bath-Craig-Rockbridge-Alleghany-
1151 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
EASTERN ALLEGHANY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...NORTHEASTERN
CRAIG COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...ROCKBRIDGE...EASTERN BATH AND
BOTETOURT COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...THE CITY OF BUENA VISTA
AND THE CITY OF LEXINGTON...

At 1151 AM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Burnsville to Iron Gate. Movement
was east at 80 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington...
Buena Vista...
Clifton Forge...
Buchanan...
and Glasgow.

This includes The following Location VMI.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3818 7952 3815 7953 3814 7946 3809 7949
      3792 7919 3785 7914 3780 7918 3779 7927
      3766 7935 3761 7946 3757 7943 3745 7959
      3748 7968 3741 7981 3738 7977 3731 7985
      3741 8007 3748 8002 3755 8009 3820 7955
TIME...MOT...LOC 1651Z 268DEG 70KT 3814 7956 3781 7978

JJM
Local storm report, Mar 1, 11:54 AM EST, 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1154 AM EST WED MAR 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     TSTM WND DMG     RAINELLE                37.97N 80.78W
03/01/2017                   GREENBRIER         WV   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN IN RAINELLE

&&

PC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 1, 10:43 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBland, Tazewell62 min
Mar 1, 10:52 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBland, Smyth, Tazewell38 min
Mar 1, 11:18 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBland, Craig, Giles, Pulaski42 min
Mar 1, 11:21 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKAlleghany, Bath, City of Covington39 min
Mar 1, 11:30 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBland, Pulaski, Smyth, Wythe, City of Radford60 min
Mar 1, 11:42 AM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKAlleghany, Botetourt, Craig, Giles, Montgomery, Roanoke48 min
Mar 1, 11:51 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementRNKBotetourt, Rockbridge, City of Buena Vista, City of Lexington54 min
Mar 1, 12:00 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBedford, Floyd, Franklin, Montgomery, Roanoke, City of Roanoke and 1 more60 min
Mar 1, 12:23 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementRNKGrayson, Smyth37 min
Mar 1, 12:33 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKAmherst, Appomattox, Buckingham, Campbell, City of Lynchburg58 min
Mar 1, 12:43 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKAppomattox, Bedford, Campbell, Halifax, Pittsylvania, City of Lynchburg45 min
Mar 1, 1:10 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementRNKGrayson65 min
Mar 1, 2:38 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementRNKPittsylvania37 min
Mar 1, 3:09 PM ESTWind AdvisoryRNKAlleghany, Bath, Bland, Botetourt, Carroll, Craig and 17 more21 hr
Mar 1, 3:18 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementRNKFranklin27 min
Mar 1, 4:34 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementRNKCity of Danville26 min
Mar 1, 5:56 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementRNKCarroll, Pulaski, City of Galax, City of Radford34 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Virginia, 2017Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.