River Flood Warning 23, NWS Blacksburg, VA

562 
WGUS81 KRNK 251420
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
1020 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...North Carolina...
 
  New River At Radford affecting Montgomery...Pulaski and City of 
  Radford Counties 
  Dan River Near Danville affecting Caswell...City of Danville and 
  Pittsylvania Counties 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Virginia..
  Roanoke River At Altavista affecting Campbell and Pittsylvania 
  Counties 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal affecting Campbell...
  Charlotte and Halifax Counties 
  Roanoke River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties
  


 One to three inches of rain the past couple of days on already 
saturated ground will lead to minor to mdoerate flooding along
the Roanoke River from Altavista downstream to Randolph. 
Minor flooding is forecast at Altavista and Brookneal,
with moderate flooding at Randolph.

Minor flooding is expected at Radford along the New River.
Minor flooding is expected along the Dan River, from Danville,
downstream to South Boston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued by 4pm, or when any
of the rivers reach flood stage.

&&

VAC121-155-750-252220-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0022.170525T1650Z-170526T0112Z/
/RDFV2.1.ER.170525T1650Z.170525T1800Z.170525T1912Z.NO/
1020 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the New River At Radford.
* from this afternoon until this evening
* at 09AM Thursday the stage was 13.4 feet and slowly rising.

* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue 
  to rise to near 14.2 feet by this afternoon. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by late this afternoon.
* Impact...at 14.0 feet...Riverside parking lots are affected
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 14.4 
  feet on Mar 7 2011.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 8062 3723 8065 3727 8053 3722 8049
          3710 8050                   

$$

VAC031-143-252220-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0023.170525T1707Z-170526T0720Z/
/ALTV2.1.ER.170525T1707Z.170525T1800Z.170525T1920Z.NO/
1020 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke River At Altavista.
* from this afternoon until late tonight
* at 09AM Thursday the stage was 17.1 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue 
  to rise to near 18.2 feet by this afternoon. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by late this afternoon.
* Impact...at 18.0 feet...Water begins to flood lowland 
  pastures/farmlands.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 17.7 
  feet on Dec 8 2011.

&&

LAT...LON 3706 7939 3716 7938 3716 7926 3711 7908
          3700 7911                   

$$

VAC031-037-083-252220-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0024.170525T2053Z-170527T0532Z/
/BROV2.1.ER.170525T2053Z.170526T0600Z.170526T1732Z.NO/
1020 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal.
* from late this afternoon until late Friday night
* at 09AM Thursday the stage was 20.4 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 25.2 feet by after midnight tonight. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by early tomorrow afternoon.


&&

LAT...LON 3700 7911 3711 7908 3703 7882 3695 7885
                                      

$$

VAC037-083-252220-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-170529T0322Z/
/RNDV2.2.ER.170525T1312Z.170527T0000Z.170528T1522Z.NO/
1020 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke River at Randolph.
* until Sunday evening. 
* at 09AM Thursday the stage was 21.2 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 26.5 feet by tomorrow 
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage late Sunday morning.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Water is several feet deep on portions of 
  river road and black walnut road.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 26.9 
  feet on Jan 27 2010.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC033-VAC143-590-252220-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0021.170525T2217Z-170526T1942Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.170525T2217Z.170526T0000Z.170526T0742Z.NO/
1020 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River Near Danville.
* from this evening until Friday afternoon
* at 09AM Thursday the stage was 14.6 feet and rising slowly.

* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to 
  rise to near 17.6 feet by this evening. The river will fall below 
  flood stage by early tomorrow.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 17.3 
  feet on Feb 17 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 7966 3660 7963 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-252220-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170527T0738Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.170526T0900Z.170526T1200Z.170526T1938Z.NO/
1020 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* from early tomorrow until late Friday night
* at 09AM Thursday the stage was 18.6 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early tomorrow and continue 
  to rise to near 20.3 feet by tomorrow morning. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...at 20.0 feet...Low-lying pasture/agricultural lands are 
  flooded.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 20.2 
  feet on Feb 18 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-252220-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-170528T0354Z/
/SBNV2.3.ER.170523T1339Z.170524T0015Z.170527T1554Z.NR/
1020 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Saturday evening. 
* at 09AM Thursday the stage was 22.4 feet and rising slowly.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23.0 feet by tomorrow  
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage late Saturday 
  morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 22.0 
  feet on Jan 25 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

432 
WGUS81 KRNK 251701
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
101 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers
in Virginia...
 
  New River At Radford affecting Montgomery...Pulaski and City of 
  Radford Counties
 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Roanoke River At Altavista affecting Campbell and Pittsylvania 
  Counties 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...North Carolina..
  Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal affecting Campbell...
  Charlotte and Halifax Counties 
  Roanoke River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties
  
  Dan River Near Danville affecting Caswell...City of Danville and 
  Pittsylvania Counties 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 


Runoff from 1 to 3 inches of rain will lead to minor to mdoerate 
flooding along the Roanoke River from Altavista downstream to Randolph. 
Minor flooding is forecast at Altavista and Brookneal,
with moderate flooding at Randolph.

Minor flooding is expected along the Dan River, from Danville,
downstream to South Boston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued by 6pm.

&&

VAC121-155-750-251731-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-170526T0112Z/
/RDFV2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
101 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

the Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the New River At Radford.
* until this evening. 
* at 12PM Thursday the stage was 13.4 feet and cresting.

* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Impact...at 14.0 feet...Riverside parking lots are affected
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 14.4 
  feet on Mar 7 2011.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 8062 3723 8065 3727 8053 3722 8049
          3710 8050                   

$$

VAC031-143-260100-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0023.170525T1724Z-170526T0720Z/
/ALTV2.1.ER.170525T1724Z.170525T1800Z.170525T1920Z.NO/
101 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke River At Altavista.
* from this afternoon until late tonight
* at 12PM Thursday the stage was 17.5 feet and rising slowly.

* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by late this afternoon
  and continue to rise to near 18.2 feet by late this afternoon.
  The river will fall below flood stage by late this afternoon.
* Impact...at 18.0 feet...Water begins to flood lowland 
  pastures/farmlands.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 17.7 
  feet on Dec 8 2011.

&&

LAT...LON 3706 7939 3716 7938 3716 7926 3711 7908
          3700 7911                   

$$

VAC031-037-083-260100-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0024.170525T2053Z-170527T0532Z/
/BROV2.1.ER.170525T2053Z.170526T0600Z.170526T1732Z.NO/
101 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal.
* from late this afternoon until late Friday night
* at 11AM Thursday the stage was 22.1 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 25.2 feet by after midnight tonight. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by tomorrow afternoon.


&&

LAT...LON 3700 7911 3711 7908 3703 7882 3695 7885
                                      

$$

VAC037-083-260100-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-170529T0322Z/
/RNDV2.2.ER.170525T1312Z.170527T0000Z.170528T1522Z.NO/
101 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke River at Randolph.
* until Sunday evening. 
* at 11AM Thursday the stage was 21.7 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 26.5 feet by tomorrow 
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage late Sunday morning.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Water is several feet deep on portions of 
  river road and black walnut road.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 26.9 
  feet on Jan 27 2010.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC033-VAC143-590-260100-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0021.170525T2217Z-170526T1942Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.170525T2217Z.170526T0000Z.170526T0742Z.NO/
101 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River Near Danville.
* from this evening until Friday afternoon
* at 12PM Thursday the stage was 14.8 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to 
  rise to near 17.6 feet by this evening. The river will fall below 
  flood stage by early tomorrow.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 17.3 
  feet on Feb 17 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 7966 3660 7963 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-260100-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170527T0738Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.170526T0900Z.170526T1200Z.170526T1938Z.NO/
101 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* from early tomorrow until late Friday night
* at 11AM Thursday the stage was 18.7 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early tomorrow and continue 
  to rise to near 20.3 feet by tomorrow morning. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...at 20.0 feet...Low-lying pasture/agricultural lands are 
  flooded.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 20.2 
  feet on Feb 18 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-260100-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-170528T0354Z/
/SBNV2.3.ER.170523T1339Z.170524T0015Z.170527T1554Z.NR/
101 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Saturday evening. 
* at 12PM Thursday the stage was 22.5 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23.0 feet by tomorrow  
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage late Saturday 
  morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 22.0 
  feet on Jan 25 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

576 
WGUS81 KRNK 251842
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
242 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers
in Virginia...
 
  Roanoke River At Altavista affecting Campbell and Pittsylvania 
  Counties
 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...North Carolina...
 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal affecting Campbell...Charlotte
  and Halifax Counties 
  Dan River Near Danville affecting Caswell...City of Danville and 
  Pittsylvania Counties 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Virginia..
  Roanoke River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties
  
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 


 Runoff from 1 to 3 inches of rain will lead to minor to mdoerate 
flooding along the Roanoke River from Brookneal downstream to Randolph. 
Minor flooding is forecast at Brookneal,
with moderate flooding at Randolph.

Minor flooding is expected along the Dan River, from Danville,
downstream to South Boston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued by 8pm.

&&

VAC031-143-251912-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-170526T0720Z/
/ALTV2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
242 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

the Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Roanoke River At Altavista.
* until late tonight. 
* at 02PM Thursday the stage was 17.1 feet and falling.

* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Impact...at 18.0 feet...Water begins to flood lowland 
  pastures/farmlands.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 17.7 
  feet on Dec 8 2011.

&&

LAT...LON 3706 7939 3716 7938 3716 7926 3711 7908
          3700 7911                   

$$

VAC031-037-083-260242-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0024.170525T1839Z-170527T0532Z/
/BROV2.1.ER.170525T1705Z.170526T0600Z.170526T1732Z.NO/
242 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal.
* until late Friday night. 
* at 01PM Thursday the stage was 23.4 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 25.2 feet by after midnight 
  tonight. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow 
  afternoon.


&&

LAT...LON 3700 7911 3711 7908 3703 7882 3695 7885
                                      

$$

VAC037-083-260242-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-170529T0322Z/
/RNDV2.2.ER.170525T1312Z.170527T0000Z.170528T1522Z.NO/
242 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke River at Randolph.
* until Sunday evening. 
* at 01PM Thursday the stage was 22.1 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 26.5 feet by tomorrow 
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage late Sunday morning.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Water is several feet deep on portions of 
  river road and black walnut road.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 26.9 
  feet on Jan 27 2010.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC033-VAC143-590-260242-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0021.170525T2233Z-170526T1942Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.170525T2233Z.170526T0000Z.170526T0742Z.NO/
242 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River Near Danville.
* from this evening until Friday afternoon
* at 02PM Thursday the stage was 15.2 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to 
  rise to near 17.6 feet by late this evening. The river will fall below 
  flood stage by early tomorrow.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 17.3 
  feet on Feb 17 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 7966 3660 7963 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-260242-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170527T0738Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.170526T0900Z.170526T1200Z.170526T1938Z.NO/
242 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* from early tomorrow until late Friday night
* at 01PM Thursday the stage was 18.8 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early tomorrow and continue 
  to rise to near 20.3 feet by tomorrow morning. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...at 20.0 feet...Low-lying pasture/agricultural lands are 
  flooded.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 20.2 
  feet on Feb 18 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-260242-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-170528T0354Z/
/SBNV2.3.ER.170523T1339Z.170524T0015Z.170527T1554Z.NR/
242 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Saturday evening. 
* at 02PM Thursday the stage was 22.6 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23.0 feet by tomorrow 
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage late Saturday 
  morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 22.0 
  feet on Jan 25 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1001 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will pass east of the region this morning.
An area of upper level low pressure will then swing across the
area this afternoon before exiting tonight. Weak high pressure
spills in on Friday with a brief return to drier weather before
more showers and storms arrive this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 955 AM EDT Thursday...

Forecast update this morning will reflect the ongoing
precipitation coverage across the region. Some scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are between roughly
Martinsville, VA and Ellisboro, NC and moving northeast. Patchy
light rain showers extended north of this primarily showers
into parts of the Alleghany Highlands. This activity will
gradually head towards the northeast as the morning progresses.
We are still anticipating greater development as we head into
the afternoon during the heating of the day as an elevated cold
pool with steep lapse rates shifts eastward across the area
today. With a freezing level around 9000 feet MSL, even some of
the stronger showers may grow tall enough to produce some small
hail, especially across central and eastern parts of the area.

Updated hourly temperatures, dew points, and sky cover grids to
reflect the latest observations and expected trends into the
early afternoon.

As of 245 AM EDT Thursday...

Ongoing showers producing heavy rainfall slow to exit as waiting
for the upstream dry slot seen on water vapor to kick through
which guidance shows taking shape by daybreak. Thus will
continue high pops north-east early on before seeing a brief
lull as we slide in between deep moisture with the front and the
upper low to the west. Core of this cold pool aloft then looks
to pivot east through the far western zones around midday with
the associated vort lobe swinging across the east during the
afternoon. This should bring another round of showers to the
western mountains by early afternoon before clusters of deeper
convection develop on the leading edge and points east during
the afternoon. Secondary wave sliding around the base should aid
lift with perhaps some organization into a broken line over the
piedmont by late in the day as hinted at by a couple short term
solutions. Main aspect will be with cooling aloft and subsequent
steep lapses capable of producing hail and even some downburst
potential given lingering shear aloft. Also given a bit slower
scenario, have pushed thunder chances back to at least the Blue
Ridge where will mention small hail per latest SWODY1 with all
seeing a period of likely pops this afternoon.

Other issue with possible heavy rain and added flooding given
saturated conditions and high water levels. However at this
point appears far western coverage may be more showery with
lower rates while stronger storms to the east will be more
capable of producing at least isolated flash flooding. Since
still dealing with the current event and given uncertainty with
coverage this afternoon, opting not to include another flood
watch headline at this point and give the dayshift a chance to
issue a short term FFA if needed. Otherwise thinking will see
some sun espcly Blue Ridge east as the wedge breaks down and
downsloping kicks in. This should help push highs above 70 out
east while 60s prevail elsewhere over the west.

Upper low finally exits to the northeast this evening with
subsidence spilling in on a rather strong 850 mb jet at 30-40
kts that will make for a gusty evening/overnight. However latest
soundings suggest speeds to stay below advisory levels over the
ridges at this point. Otherwise appears any residual pops will
be confined mainly to upslope areas across the northwest where
some wrap around showers may persist. Thus keeping in chance
pops northwest third with a gradual decrease in coverage late.
Elsewhere expecting downslope drying to limit much in the way of
added showers with clearing skies east. Lows on the cool side
with most seeing 50s overnight if not a few 40s in the valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 AM EDT Thursday...

On Friday, we will gradually lose the upslope scattered
showers, and associated cloud cover, as low level winds start to
back more westerly through the day with the approach of an
upper level shortwave ridge. The arrival of drier air will also
yield a decreasing trend in coverage. The best chances will
still be over parts of southeast West Virginia, mainly during
the morning hours. The vast majority of the forecast area will
experience limited cloud cover and weak winds.

Our period of drier weather will be short lived. Friday night into
Saturday we will be watching a cold front approach and then enter
the region. Isolated showers may develop by sunrise Saturday in
the northwest portions of the area, but the better chances will
be during the day Saturday with the arrival of the front
combined with daytime heating.

Guidance varies on what extent the front makes it through the region
before stalling. Model are leaning towards a thunderstorm complex
potentially riding along this stalled front late Saturday night and
entering the area by Sunday morning. This supported by the 00z
ECMWF which has multiple complexes riding the boundary from late
Saturday through Sunday.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will start near
normal, but trend to a little over five degrees above normal by
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Wednesday...

During this part of the forecast, a broad, slow moving upper low
will transition from the Great Lakes region to over southeast
Canada.  This will keep our region in a pattern dominated by a
persistent trough of low pressure across the eastern portion of the
U.S.  Within this trough pattern a series of cold fronts are
expected to enter, and then move through the forecast region.
Guidance offers the first of these two to have a Sunday night into
Monday time frame, with a second during late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Both of these time frames will be periods with a greater
potential for showers and storms, with the first being more robust
than the second. However, while the area is within the overall
trough pattern, daytime heating will be enough to produce at least
isolated showers during other parts of this time period.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will start the
period about ten degrees above normal. By Wednesday, readings within
a degree or two of normal are forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Thursday...

Overall poor flying conditions to start this morning with low
cigs and patchy fog keeping sub-VFR in place. However expecting
only spotty showers or drizzle so slow improvement expected by
mid to late morning.

Downslope winds on the east side of the Blue Ridge will erode
any residual clouds and fog once mixing increases by midday.
Low level moisture and MVFR/VFR stratocumulus will remain over
the mountains. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
develop in the afternoon. Some of the stronger thunderstorms
may have small hail and MVFR visibilities along with heavy rain
espcly along/east of the Blue Ridge.

Expecting showers and storms to fade with loss of heating with a
return to mainly VFR overnight as an upper low exits. Only
exception will be across upslope western zones where sub-VFR
cigs and lingering showers could persist. Given strong
west/northwest winds gusting to 20-25 kts at times appears some
lower cigs could sneak out to KBCB/KROA as well through the
night.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Friday will be drier with a better chance of VFR ceilings and
visibilities. Another front reaches the area for Saturday with
more showers and thunderstorms including sub-VFR conditions
into Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 645 AM EDT Thursday...

Showers have faded to spotty light rain or drizzle this morning
with a brief lull in activity expected through late morning.
This should allow water levels along creeks and streams to
slowly recede this morning while rises occur on all mainstem
rivers into this afternoon.

Minor Flooding is expected to continue on the Dan River at
South Boston and is forecast on the Dan River at Paces and on
the Roanoke River at Randolph as well as at Radford on the New
River. Rises to near bankfull are also expected along the
Greenbrier River and James River today.

Another round of showers and storms will occur again this
afternoon which given low flash flood guidance values could
lead to added flooding issues. At this point will hold off on
any added watch headlines given uncertainty in locations of
heavier rainfall including rates later today.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...DS/JH
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH
HYDROLOGY...AMS

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
357 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ014-017>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
260800-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Montgomery-Floyd-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-
Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-
Halifax-Charlotte-
357 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon
with hail the primary threat although damaging winds will also be
possible. Very heavy rainfall could also lead to additional flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms could occur later Saturday
into Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>013-015-016-WVZ042>044-507-508-260800-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-
Grayson-Carroll-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
357 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible today that could lead
to periods of heavy rainfall. This could result in areas of
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms may occur later
Saturday into Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
719 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

NCZ003-004-020-251215-
Stokes-Surry-Yadkin-
719 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN SURRY...STOKES AND EASTERN YADKIN COUNTIES...

At 719 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over East Bend,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pilot Mountain...
Walnut Cove...
Boonville...
East Bend...
and Danbury.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3626 8073 3655 8034 3654 8025 3653 8024
      3633 8003 3626 8016 3626 8045 3624 8045
      3622 8043 3621 8045 3614 8044 3612 8046
      3611 8051 3605 8051 3605 8056 3606 8056
TIME...MOT...LOC 1119Z 227DEG 22KT 3622 8055

JH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
859 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

NCZ004-005-VAZ043-044-251345-
Stokes-Rockingham-Henry-Pittsylvania-
859 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

...A HEAVY SHOWER WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL STOKES...NORTHWESTERN
ROCKINGHAM...SOUTHWESTERN PITTSYLVANIA AND EASTERN HENRY COUNTIES
AND THE CITY OF MARTINSVILLE...

At 858 AM EDT, a shower was located over Ayersville, moving northeast
at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this shower.

Locations impacted include...
Eden...
Martinsville...
Mayodan...
Madison...
and Stoneville.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this shower, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3646 8012 3680 7977 3680 7976 3679 7976
      3681 7974 3683 7969 3665 7949 3636 7999
TIME...MOT...LOC 1258Z 228DEG 26KT 3648 7999

WP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
952 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

VAZ033-043-044-251430-
Henry-Franklin-Pittsylvania-
952 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

...A THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN PITTSYLVANIA...EASTERN HENRY
AND SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF MARTINSVILLE...

At 952 AM EDT, a thunderstorm was located over Sandy River, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Martinsville...
Chatham...
Callands...
Axton...
and Leatherwood.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3660 7985 3666 7992 3704 7954 3687 7927
      3658 7965
TIME...MOT...LOC 1352Z 221DEG 22KT 3671 7968

WP