River Flood Warning 22, NWS Blacksburg, VA

729 
WGUS81 KRNK 251240
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
840 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...North Carolina...
 
  New River At Radford affecting Montgomery...Pulaski and City of 
  Radford Counties 
  Roanoke River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties 
  Dan River Near Danville affecting Caswell...City of Danville and 
  Pittsylvania Counties 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 


One to three inches of rain occurred over the past 1 to 2 days.
This will lead to minor flooding along the New River at Radford,
Roanoke River at Randolph, and the Dan River, from Danville to
South Boston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued noon.

&&

VAC121-155-750-252040-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0022.170525T1608Z-170526T0117Z/
/RDFV2.1.ER.170525T1608Z.170525T1800Z.170525T1917Z.NO/
840 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the New River At Radford.
* from this afternoon until this evening
* at 08AM Thursday the stage was 13.4 feet and rising slowly.

* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue 
  to rise to near 14.3 feet this afternoon. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by late this afternoon.
* Impact...at 14.0 feet...Riverside parking lots are affected
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 14.4 
  feet on Mar 7 2011.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 8062 3723 8065 3727 8053 3722 8049
          3710 8050                   

$$

VAC037-083-252040-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0020.170525T1337Z-170528T0850Z/
/RNDV2.1.ER.170525T1337Z.170526T1800Z.170527T2050Z.NO/
840 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke River at Randolph.
* from late this morning until late Saturday night
* at 07AM Thursday the stage was 20.6 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by late this morning and 
  continue to rise to near 23.8 feet by early tomorrow afternoon.
  The river will fall below flood stage by Saturday afternoon.
* Impact...at 24.0 feet...Widespread lowland flooding in fields on 
  left bank and woods on right bank.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 24.0 
  feet on Apr 26 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC033-VAC143-590-252040-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0021.170525T1621Z-170526T2343Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.170525T1621Z.170526T0000Z.170526T1143Z.NO/
840 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River Near Danville.
* from this afternoon until Friday evening
* at 08AM Thursday the stage was 14.5 feet and rising slowly.

* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue 
  to rise to near 19.5 feet by this evening. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by tomorrow morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 18.9 
  feet on Oct 9 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 7966 3660 7963 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-252040-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170527T1409Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.170526T0234Z.170526T1800Z.170527T0209Z.NO/
840 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* from tonight until Saturday morning
* at 07AM Thursday the stage was 18.6 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tonight and continue to rise 
  to near 21.5 feet by early tomorrow afternoon. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by late tomorrow evening.
* Impact...at 20.0 feet...Low-lying pasture/agricultural lands are 
  flooded.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 21.6 
  feet on Oct 1 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-252040-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-170528T0643Z/
/SBNV2.3.ER.170523T1339Z.170524T0015Z.170527T1843Z.NR/
840 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until late Saturday night. 
* at 08AM Thursday the stage was 22.4 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23.7 feet by early Saturday 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage early Saturday  
  afternoon.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 24.5 
  feet on Oct 10 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

562 
WGUS81 KRNK 251420
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
1020 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...North Carolina...
 
  New River At Radford affecting Montgomery...Pulaski and City of 
  Radford Counties 
  Dan River Near Danville affecting Caswell...City of Danville and 
  Pittsylvania Counties 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Virginia..
  Roanoke River At Altavista affecting Campbell and Pittsylvania 
  Counties 
  Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal affecting Campbell...
  Charlotte and Halifax Counties 
  Roanoke River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties
  


 One to three inches of rain the past couple of days on already 
saturated ground will lead to minor to mdoerate flooding along
the Roanoke River from Altavista downstream to Randolph. 
Minor flooding is forecast at Altavista and Brookneal,
with moderate flooding at Randolph.

Minor flooding is expected at Radford along the New River.
Minor flooding is expected along the Dan River, from Danville,
downstream to South Boston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued by 4pm, or when any
of the rivers reach flood stage.

&&

VAC121-155-750-252220-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0022.170525T1650Z-170526T0112Z/
/RDFV2.1.ER.170525T1650Z.170525T1800Z.170525T1912Z.NO/
1020 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the New River At Radford.
* from this afternoon until this evening
* at 09AM Thursday the stage was 13.4 feet and slowly rising.

* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue 
  to rise to near 14.2 feet by this afternoon. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by late this afternoon.
* Impact...at 14.0 feet...Riverside parking lots are affected
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 14.4 
  feet on Mar 7 2011.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 8062 3723 8065 3727 8053 3722 8049
          3710 8050                   

$$

VAC031-143-252220-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0023.170525T1707Z-170526T0720Z/
/ALTV2.1.ER.170525T1707Z.170525T1800Z.170525T1920Z.NO/
1020 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke River At Altavista.
* from this afternoon until late tonight
* at 09AM Thursday the stage was 17.1 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue 
  to rise to near 18.2 feet by this afternoon. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by late this afternoon.
* Impact...at 18.0 feet...Water begins to flood lowland 
  pastures/farmlands.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 17.7 
  feet on Dec 8 2011.

&&

LAT...LON 3706 7939 3716 7938 3716 7926 3711 7908
          3700 7911                   

$$

VAC031-037-083-252220-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0024.170525T2053Z-170527T0532Z/
/BROV2.1.ER.170525T2053Z.170526T0600Z.170526T1732Z.NO/
1020 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal.
* from late this afternoon until late Friday night
* at 09AM Thursday the stage was 20.4 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 25.2 feet by after midnight tonight. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by early tomorrow afternoon.


&&

LAT...LON 3700 7911 3711 7908 3703 7882 3695 7885
                                      

$$

VAC037-083-252220-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-170529T0322Z/
/RNDV2.2.ER.170525T1312Z.170527T0000Z.170528T1522Z.NO/
1020 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke River at Randolph.
* until Sunday evening. 
* at 09AM Thursday the stage was 21.2 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 26.5 feet by tomorrow 
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage late Sunday morning.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Water is several feet deep on portions of 
  river road and black walnut road.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 26.9 
  feet on Jan 27 2010.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC033-VAC143-590-252220-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0021.170525T2217Z-170526T1942Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.170525T2217Z.170526T0000Z.170526T0742Z.NO/
1020 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River Near Danville.
* from this evening until Friday afternoon
* at 09AM Thursday the stage was 14.6 feet and rising slowly.

* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to 
  rise to near 17.6 feet by this evening. The river will fall below 
  flood stage by early tomorrow.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 17.3 
  feet on Feb 17 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 7966 3660 7963 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-252220-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170527T0738Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.170526T0900Z.170526T1200Z.170526T1938Z.NO/
1020 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* from early tomorrow until late Friday night
* at 09AM Thursday the stage was 18.6 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early tomorrow and continue 
  to rise to near 20.3 feet by tomorrow morning. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...at 20.0 feet...Low-lying pasture/agricultural lands are 
  flooded.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 20.2 
  feet on Feb 18 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-252220-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-170528T0354Z/
/SBNV2.3.ER.170523T1339Z.170524T0015Z.170527T1554Z.NR/
1020 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Saturday evening. 
* at 09AM Thursday the stage was 22.4 feet and rising slowly.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23.0 feet by tomorrow  
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage late Saturday 
  morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 22.0 
  feet on Jan 25 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

432 
WGUS81 KRNK 251701
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
101 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers
in Virginia...
 
  New River At Radford affecting Montgomery...Pulaski and City of 
  Radford Counties
 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  Roanoke River At Altavista affecting Campbell and Pittsylvania 
  Counties 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...North Carolina..
  Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal affecting Campbell...
  Charlotte and Halifax Counties 
  Roanoke River at Randolph affecting Charlotte and Halifax Counties
  
  Dan River Near Danville affecting Caswell...City of Danville and 
  Pittsylvania Counties 
  Dan River at Paces affecting Halifax County 
  Dan River at South Boston affecting Halifax County 


Runoff from 1 to 3 inches of rain will lead to minor to mdoerate 
flooding along the Roanoke River from Altavista downstream to Randolph. 
Minor flooding is forecast at Altavista and Brookneal,
with moderate flooding at Randolph.

Minor flooding is expected along the Dan River, from Danville,
downstream to South Boston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

 
 
The next scheduled statement will be issued by 6pm.

&&

VAC121-155-750-251731-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-170526T0112Z/
/RDFV2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
101 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

the Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the New River At Radford.
* until this evening. 
* at 12PM Thursday the stage was 13.4 feet and cresting.

* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Impact...at 14.0 feet...Riverside parking lots are affected
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 14.4 
  feet on Mar 7 2011.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 8062 3723 8065 3727 8053 3722 8049
          3710 8050                   

$$

VAC031-143-260100-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0023.170525T1724Z-170526T0720Z/
/ALTV2.1.ER.170525T1724Z.170525T1800Z.170525T1920Z.NO/
101 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke River At Altavista.
* from this afternoon until late tonight
* at 12PM Thursday the stage was 17.5 feet and rising slowly.

* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by late this afternoon
  and continue to rise to near 18.2 feet by late this afternoon.
  The river will fall below flood stage by late this afternoon.
* Impact...at 18.0 feet...Water begins to flood lowland 
  pastures/farmlands.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 17.7 
  feet on Dec 8 2011.

&&

LAT...LON 3706 7939 3716 7938 3716 7926 3711 7908
          3700 7911                   

$$

VAC031-037-083-260100-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0024.170525T2053Z-170527T0532Z/
/BROV2.1.ER.170525T2053Z.170526T0600Z.170526T1732Z.NO/
101 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke (Staunton) River At Brookneal.
* from late this afternoon until late Friday night
* at 11AM Thursday the stage was 22.1 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 25.2 feet by after midnight tonight. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by tomorrow afternoon.


&&

LAT...LON 3700 7911 3711 7908 3703 7882 3695 7885
                                      

$$

VAC037-083-260100-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-170529T0322Z/
/RNDV2.2.ER.170525T1312Z.170527T0000Z.170528T1522Z.NO/
101 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Roanoke River at Randolph.
* until Sunday evening. 
* at 11AM Thursday the stage was 21.7 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 26.5 feet by tomorrow 
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage late Sunday morning.
* Impact...at 25.0 feet...Water is several feet deep on portions of 
  river road and black walnut road.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 26.9 
  feet on Jan 27 2010.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 7885 3703 7882 3702 7872 3690 7866
          3680 7863 3680 7870        

$$

NCC033-VAC143-590-260100-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0021.170525T2217Z-170526T1942Z/
/DVLV2.1.ER.170525T2217Z.170526T0000Z.170526T0742Z.NO/
101 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River Near Danville.
* from this evening until Friday afternoon
* at 12PM Thursday the stage was 14.8 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to 
  rise to near 17.6 feet by this evening. The river will fall below 
  flood stage by early tomorrow.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 17.3 
  feet on Feb 17 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 7966 3660 7963 3664 7941 3663 7920
          3648 7923 3650 7949         

$$

VAC083-260100-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-170527T0738Z/
/PCEV2.1.ER.170526T0900Z.170526T1200Z.170526T1938Z.NO/
101 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at Paces.
* from early tomorrow until late Friday night
* at 11AM Thursday the stage was 18.7 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early tomorrow and continue 
  to rise to near 20.3 feet by tomorrow morning. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...at 20.0 feet...Low-lying pasture/agricultural lands are 
  flooded.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 20.2 
  feet on Feb 18 2016.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7923 3663 7920 3672 7902 3660 7898
          3656 7911                   

$$

VAC083-260100-
/O.CON.KRNK.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-170528T0354Z/
/SBNV2.3.ER.170523T1339Z.170524T0015Z.170527T1554Z.NR/
101 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

the Flood Warning continues for
  the Dan River at South Boston.
* until Saturday evening. 
* at 12PM Thursday the stage was 22.5 feet and rising.

* Flood stage is 19.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23.0 feet by tomorrow  
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage late Saturday 
  morning.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 22.0 
  feet on Jan 25 2017.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 7898 3672 7902 3675 7884 3668 7879
                                      

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
317 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will pass east of the region this morning.
An area of upper level low pressure will then swing across the
area this afternoon before exiting tonight. Weak high pressure
spills in on Friday with a brief return to drier weather before
more showers and storms arrive this weekend.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Thursday...

Ongoing showers producing heavy rainfall slow to exit as waiting
for the upstream dry slot seen on water vapor to kick through
which guidance shows taking shape by daybreak. Thus will
continue high pops north-east early on before seeing a brief
lull as we slide in between deep moisture with the front and the
upper low to the west. Core of this cold pool aloft then looks
to pivot east through the far western zones around midday with
the associated vort lobe swinging across the east during the
afternoon. This should bring another round of showers to the
western mountains by early afternoon before clusters of deeper
convection develop on the leading edge and points east during
the afternoon. Secondary wave sliding around the base should aid
lift with perhaps some organization into a broken line over the
piedmont by late in the day as hinted at by a couple short term
solutions. Main aspect will be with cooling aloft and subsequent
steep lapses capable of producing hail and even some downburst
potential given lingering shear aloft. Also given a bit slower
scenario, have pushed thunder chances back to at least the Blue
Ridge where will mention small hail per latest SWODY1 with all
seeing a period of likely pops this afternoon.

Other issue with possible heavy rain and added flooding given
saturated conditions and high water levels. However at this
point appears far western coverage may be more showery with
lower rates while stronger storms to the east will be more
capable of producing at least isolated flash flooding. Since
still dealing with the current event and given uncertainty with
coverage this afternoon, opting not to include another flood
watch headline at this point and give the dayshift a chance to
issue a short term FFA if needed. Otherwise thinking will see
some sun espcly Blue Ridge east as the wedge breaks down and
downsloping kicks in. This should help push highs above 70 out
east while 60s prevail elsewhere over the west.

Upper low finally exits to the northeast this evening with
subsidence spilling in on a rather strong 850 mb jet at 30-40
kts that will make for a gusty evening/overnight. However latest
soundings suggest speeds to stay below advisory levels over the
ridges at this point. Otherwise appears any residual pops will
be confined mainly to upslope areas across the northwest where
some wrap around showers may persist. Thus keeping in chance
pops northwest third with a gradual decrease in coverage late.
Elsewhere expecting downslope drying to limit much in the way of
added showers with clearing skies east. Lows on the cool side
with most seeing 50s overnight if not a few 40s in the valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 AM EDT Thursday...

On Friday, we will gradually lose the upslope scattered
showers, and associated cloud cover, as low level winds start to
back more westerly through the day with the approach of an
upper level shortwave ridge. The arrival of drier air will also
yield a decreasing trend in coverage. The best chances will
still be over parts of southeast West Virginia, mainly during
the morning hours. The vast majority of the forecast area will
experience limited cloud cover and weak winds.

Our period of drier weather will be short lived. Friday night into
Saturday we will be watching a cold front approach and then enter
the region. Isolated showers may develop by sunrise Saturday in
the northwest portions of the area, but the better chances will
be during the day Saturday with the arrival of the front
combined with daytime heating.

Guidance varies on what extent the front makes it through the region
before stalling. Model are leaning towards a thunderstorm complex
potentially riding along this stalled front late Saturday night and
entering the area by Sunday morning. This supported by the 00z
ECMWF which has multiple complexes riding the boundary from late
Saturday through Sunday.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will start near
normal, but trend to a little over five degrees above normal by
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Wednesday...

During this part of the forecast, a broad, slow moving upper low
will transition from the Great Lakes region to over southeast
Canada.  This will keep our region in a pattern dominated by a
persistent trough of low pressure across the eastern portion of the
U.S.  Within this trough pattern a series of cold fronts are
expected to enter, and then move through the forecast region.
Guidance offers the first of these two to have a Sunday night into
Monday time frame, with a second during late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Both of these time frames will be periods with a greater
potential for showers and storms, with the first being more robust
than the second. However, while the area is within the overall
trough pattern, daytime heating will be enough to produce at least
isolated showers during other parts of this time period.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will start the
period about ten degrees above normal. By Wednesday, readings within
a degree or two of normal are forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1245 AM EDT Thursday...

Poor flying conditions to prevail overnight as a complex low
pressure system and associated cold front swing through from the
west. Expecting showers to slowly wane through the early morning
hours as deeper moisture lifts northeast. However still
expecting sub-VFR cigs overnight with MVFR to IFR vsbys in fog.
High confidence in timing of the models bringing the cold front
through the region after midnight.

Downslope winds on the east side of the Blue Ridge will erode
clouds and fog once mixing begins Thursday morning. Low level
moisture and VFR stratocumulus will remain over the mountains.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop in the
afternoon. Some of the stronger thunderstorms may have small
hail and MVFR visibilities along with heavy rain.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Friday will be drier with a better chance of VFR ceilings and
visibilities. Another front reaches the area for Saturday with
more showers and thunderstorms including sub-VFR conditions
into Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 255 AM EDT Thursday...

Showers continue in bands across the region early this morning
leading to high creek and stream levels with minor flooding in
spots. As rainfall rates slowly decrease expecting some
improvement although may take until midday for levels to start
receding while continuing to rise on mainstem rivers.
Significant rises will also occur on mainstem rivers as well
with both the New and Greenbrier likely reaching bankfull
overnight.

Minor Flooding is expected to continue on the Dan River at
South Boston and is forecast on the Dan River at Paces and on
the Roanoke River at Randolph.

Another round of showers and storms will occur again this
afternoon which given low flash flood guidance values could
lead to added flooding issues. At this point will hold off on
any added watch headlines given uncertainty in locations of
heavier rainfall including rates later today.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...DS/JH
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/JH
HYDROLOGY...JH/AMS

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
357 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ014-017>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
260800-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Montgomery-Floyd-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-
Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-
Halifax-Charlotte-
357 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon
with hail the primary threat although damaging winds will also be
possible. Very heavy rainfall could also lead to additional flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms could occur later Saturday
into Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>013-015-016-WVZ042>044-507-508-260800-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-
Grayson-Carroll-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
357 AM EDT Thu May 25 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible today that could lead
to periods of heavy rainfall. This could result in areas of
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms may occur later
Saturday into Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1045 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE BROADFORD         36.92N 81.63W
05/24/2017                   SMYTH              VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS LARGE LIMBS DOWN AND POWER OUT. TIME FROM RADAR.

0255 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N HUNGRY MOTHER STATE 36.94N 81.53W
05/24/2017                   SMYTH              VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF ROUTE 16 AND ROUTE
            610

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW TAZEWELL          37.14N 81.53W
05/24/2017                   TAZEWELL           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN THAT TOOK DOWN POWER LINES ON BLACKHORSE
            ROAD

0421 PM     TORNADO          5 SE YADKINVILLE        36.07N 80.60W
05/24/2017                   YADKIN             NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL OBSERVED SIGHTINGS OF A TORNADO...COURTNEY
            ELEMENTARY SCHOOL GYMNASIUM DESTROYED...SEVERAL VEHICLES
            FLIPPED...AND PEOPLE TRAPPED INSIDE HOMES

0433 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE BROOKS CROSSROADS  36.10N 80.77W
05/24/2017                   YADKIN             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1800 BLOCK OF HAMPTONVILLE ROAD FOUR TREES WERE BLOWN
            DOWN...TREES WERE BLOCKING THE ROAD.

0454 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W KING                36.29N 80.42W
05/24/2017                   STOKES             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF TRINITY
            CHURCH ROAD AND NAUVOO RIDGE DRIVE

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW KING              36.30N 80.42W
05/24/2017                   STOKES             NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES SNAPPED OFF AND DEBRIS ON BOTH SIDES OF HIGHWAY 52
            JUST SOUTH OF PILOT MOUNTAIN STATE PARK. POSSIBLE TORNADO
            BASED ON RADAR SIGNATURES.

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W CAPELLA             36.36N 80.36W
05/24/2017                   STOKES             NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SOME DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IN TRAILER PARK ALONG YMCA
            CAMP RD. POSSIBLE TORNADO ACCORDING TO RADAR SIGNATURES.

0511 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW CAPELLA           36.39N 80.33W
05/24/2017                   STOKES             NC   PUBLIC

            NUMEROUS TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN WITHIN A 300 YARD WIDE
            AREA NEAR INTERSECTION OF TAYLER ROAD AND ROUTE 66. IN
            THE SAME AREA...A ROOF WAS DAMAGED AND A BARN WAS BLOWN
            DOWN.

0515 PM     FLOOD            1 SE PRINCETON          37.36N 81.09W
05/24/2017                   MERCER             WV   BROADCAST MEDIA

            STANDING WATER IN AND NEAR BEE STREET.

0551 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW FAIRY STONE STATE 36.81N 80.14W
05/24/2017                   PATRICK            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ON HEIDELBACH SCHOOL ROAD

0604 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW SANVILLE          36.75N 80.09W
05/24/2017                   PATRICK            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF SADDLERIDGE ROAD
            AND MICROFILM ROAD

0622 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ENE BASSETT           36.80N 79.90W
05/24/2017                   HENRY              VA   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF OLD QUARRY ROAD
            AND DANIELS CREEK ROAD

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW OAK LEVEL         36.84N 79.94W
05/24/2017                   FRANKLIN           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HENRY ROAD AND
            PROVIDENCE CHURCH ROAD

0633 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE ROCKY MOUNT       37.01N 79.87W
05/24/2017                   FRANKLIN           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ON MUSE FIELD ROAD CLOSE TO ROUTE 220

0649 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NE WESTERN SMITH MOUN 37.09N 79.69W
05/24/2017                   FRANKLIN           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ON LOVELY VALLEY ROAD CLOSE TO THE
            INTERSECTION WITH SCRUGGS ROAD

0703 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW NORTHWEST SMITH M 37.18N 79.78W
05/24/2017                   FRANKLIN           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF ETON ROAD AND DEEP
            WOODS ROAD

0800 PM     FLOOD            4 ESE ROCKY MOUNT       36.97N 79.82W
05/24/2017                   FRANKLIN           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            DOE RUN FLOODED OVER A LOW WATER CROSSING ON ASHPONE ROAD
            CAUSING THE ROAD TO BE CLOSED

0850 PM     FLOOD            5 E MAX MEADOWS         36.98N 80.84W
05/24/2017                   WYTHE              VA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SOUTH-BOUND I-81 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING OF LITTLE PINE
            RUN

0953 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PULASKI                 37.05N 80.80W
05/24/2017  E0.00 INCH       PULASKI            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL HAS CAUSED NUMEROUS ROADS TO BE
            INUNDATED BY STANDING WATER WITHIN THE COUNTY OF PULASKI.
            OUTDOOR HIGHWAY, ROUTE 999, AND COMMERCE STREET ALL HAVE
            SIGNIFICANT STANDING WATER. RUNNING CREEK WATER WAS ALSO
            REPORTED TO BE APPROACHING THE BASE BRIDGE ON BROOKMONT
            ROAD.

1013 PM     HEAVY RAIN       FRIES                   36.72N 80.97W
05/24/2017  E0.00 INCH       CARROLL            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN FRIES AREA IS CAUSING LOCAL
            CREEKS AND CULVERTS TO SWELL. PORTIONS OF STEPHENS CREEK
            HAS ESCAPED ITS BANKS FLOODING LOCAL FARMLAND.

1035 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PULASKI                 37.05N 80.80W
05/24/2017  U0.00 INCH       PULASKI            VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT
            STANDING WATER IN THE TOWN OF PULASKI. PEAK CREEK HAS
            ALSO BEEN REPORTED OUT OF ITS BANKS, BEGINNING TO FLOOD
            PARKING LOTS WITHIN THE CITY LIMITS.

&&
A NWS STORM SURVEY WILL BE CONDUCTED TOMORROW ON MAY 25 TO ASSESS THE
DAMAGE IN YADKIN AND STOKES COUNTIES OF NORTH CAROLINA.

PW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1131 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1129 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 NNW RADFORD           37.21N 80.62W
05/24/2017  M2.93 INCH       PULASKI            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL MEASURED SINCE MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

JMORROW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1257 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1256 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GLASGOW                 37.63N 79.45W
05/25/2017  M2.18 INCH       ROCKBRIDGE         VA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            MEASURED RAINFALL SINCE 7AM THIS MORNING. RAIN STILL
            COMING DOWN STEADILY.

&&

JMORROW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
159 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

NCZ006-VAZ044-250630-
Caswell-Pittsylvania-
159 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

...AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDED THUNDER WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
CASWELL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PITTSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDING THE CITY
OF DANVILLE...

At 157 AM EDT, heavy showers with embeded thunder were clustered
near Yanceyville, moving north at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Danville...
Yanceyville...
Bethel...
Providence...
and Milton.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3633 7950 3667 7942 3663 7920 3654 7922
      3654 7917 3630 7933
TIME...MOT...LOC 0557Z 201DEG 35KT 3637 7940

JJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
330 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

VAZ058-059-250800-
Halifax-Charlotte-
330 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

...AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDED THUNDER WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN CHARLOTTE AND EASTERN HALIFAX COUNTIES...

At 329 AM EDT, heavy showers with embeded thunder were clustered
over Dryburg, moving north at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Redoak...
Clover...
Drakes Branch...
Scottsburg...
and Mt Laurel.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3675 7860 3670 7865 3669 7864 3669 7868
      3668 7870 3667 7870 3664 7871 3666 7881
      3703 7877 3700 7850
TIME...MOT...LOC 0729Z 192DEG 39KT 3673 7874

JJM