Alert archive / Virginia / River Flood Warnings in 2017

River Flood Warning 10, NWS Blacksburg, VA

April 24, 2017Montgomery County, Pulaski County, City of Radford, Virginia

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this river flood warning at Apr 24, 2017, 10:37 AM EDT for Montgomery County, Pulaski County, City of Radford, Virginia. It took effect at Apr 24, 2017, 1:17 PM EDT. It was in force for 27 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 24, 2017, 10:37 AM EDT (14:37 UTC)
In effect from
Apr 24, 2017, 1:17 PM EDT
Expired
Apr 25, 2017, 4:18 PM EDT
In force
27 hr
Issued by
NWS Blacksburg, VA
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties City of Radford, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Pulaski County, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 30 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point New River at Radford (RDFV2). The gauge peaked at 16.78 ft at Apr 24, 2017, 7:00 PM EDT.

actionminormoderate5101504/2404/2504/26
Action stage
12 ft
Minor stage
14 ft
Moderate stage
16 ft
Major stage
20 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 03171000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

437 
WGUS41 KRNK 241437
FLWRNK
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
1037 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...The National Weather Service Blacksburg Va has issued
a Flood Warning for the following rivers in Virginia...

  New River At Radford affecting Montgomery...Pulaski and City of 
  Radford Counties

Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches over mainly the past 48 hours will push stages along the New River above Minor Flood Stage in the Radford area later today. 

Flooding is already occurring along the New River upstream of Claytor Lake with the gage at Allisonia at 9.2 feet and still rising. Minor Flood Stage is 8 feet at this gage.

At the Glen Lyn forecast point downstream on the New, the river is expected to crest just below Minor Flood Stage by early tomorrow morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

Listen to noaa weather radio or your favorite media outlet for later 
statements or warnings.

&&

VAC121-155-750-250237-
/O.NEW.KRNK.FL.W.0010.170425T0112Z-170425T2018Z/
/RDFV2.1.ER.170425T0112Z.170425T0600Z.170425T1418Z.NO/
1037 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg Va has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the New River At Radford
* from this evening until Tuesday afternoon
* At 10AM Monday the stage was 11.7 feet.
* Flood Stage is 14.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tonight and continue to rise 
  to near 14.8 feet by around midnight. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by tomorrow late morning.
* Impact...at 14.0 feet...Riverside parking lots at Radford University are affected.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 14.4 
  feet on Mar 7 2011.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 8062 3723 8065 3727 8053 3722 8049
          3710 8050                   

$$

pc
6 follow-up statements
329 
WGUS81 KRNK 241618
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
1218 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...
 
  New River At Radford affecting Montgomery...Pulaski and City of 
  Radford Counties 

The forecast for the New River at Radford has been updated with a
slightly higher crest than earlier this morning. The river is
still expected to remain below the Moderate Flood stage of 16 
feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

The next scheduled statement will be issued by late this afternoon.

&&

VAC121-155-750-250018-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0010.170424T1717Z-170425T1800Z/
/RDFV2.1.ER.170424T1717Z.170425T0000Z.170425T1200Z.NO/
1218 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the New River At Radford.
* from this afternoon until Tuesday afternoon
* at 11AM Monday the stage was 13.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue 
  to rise to near 15.6 feet by this evening. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by tomorrow morning.
* Impact...at 16.0 feet...Significant flooding occures in Bissett 
  Park.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 16.2 
  feet on Apr 20 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 8062 3723 8065 3727 8053 3722 8049
          3710 8050                   

$$

pc
663 
WGUS41 KRNK 241853
FLWRNK
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
253 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...The National Weather Service Blacksburg Va has issued
a Flood Warning for the following rivers in Virginia...West 
Virginia...

  New River At Glen Lyn affecting Giles...Mercer...Monroe and Summers
  Counties

Updated forecasts for the New River indicate that flood levels
will be somewhat higher than the previous forecast. At Radford the
river is now expected to crest above the Moderate flood stage of
16 feet early this evening. In addition, the New is expected
to reach flood stage at Glen Lyn late tonight. Flooding 
will remain in the Minor category at Glen Lyn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

Listen to noaa weather radio or your favorite media outlet for later 
statements or warnings.

&&

VAC121-155-750-250653-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-170426T0753Z/
/RDFV2.2.ER.170424T1559Z.170425T0000Z.170426T0153Z.NO/
253 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

* Flood Warning fo rthe New River at Radford
* until Tuesday night
* At 215 PM Monday the stage was 15.7 feet.
* Minor Flood Stage is 14.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. 
* The river will continue rising to near 16.9 feet by this evening
  and then begin to fall tonight.
* Impact...at 17.0 feet...All of Dedman Center lower parking lots 
  at Radford University are flooded.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 16.2 
  feet on Apr 20 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 8062 3723 8065 3727 8053 3722 8049
          3710 8050                   

$$

VAC071-WVC055-063-089-250653-
/O.NEW.KRNK.FL.W.0011.170425T0441Z-170426T0515Z/
/GLLV2.1.ER.170425T0441Z.170425T1200Z.170425T1715Z.NO/
253 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

The National Weather Service in Blacksburg Va has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the New River at Glen Lyn
* from late tonight until late Tuesday.
* At 230 PM Monday the stage was 11.0 feet.
* Minor Flood Stage is 15.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by after midnight and 
  continue to rise to near 15.7 feet by tomorrow morning.The river 
  will fall below flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon.
* Impact...at 15.0 feet...Low spots along route 649 (Lurich road) 
  upstream from the gage are flooded.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 14.8 
  feet on Apr 21 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3723 8065 3733 8082 3746 8097 3754 8078
          3742 8072 3727 8053         

$$

pc
580 
WGUS81 KRNK 242254
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
654 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...West Virginia...
 
  New River At Radford affecting Montgomery...Pulaski and City of 
  Radford Counties 
  New River At Glen Lyn affecting Giles...Mercer...Monroe and Summers 
  Counties 

 A slow moving area of low pressure aloft drifting through the 
 southeast U.S. has brought several inches of rainfall to the area
 during the past several days. Rainfall amounts during the past 
 several days have averaged from 2 to 4 inches across this area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

&&

VAC121-155-750-250654-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-170425T2252Z/
/RDFV2.2.ER.170424T1559Z.170425T0000Z.170425T1652Z.NO/
654 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the New River At Radford.
* until Tuesday evening. 
* at 7 PM EDT Monday the stage was 16.8 feet (modereate flood)
  ...and currently near steady state.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet. Moderate flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 16.8 feet this evening. 
  The river will fall below flood stage early Tuesday afternoon.
* Impact...at 17.0 feet...All of Dedman Center lower parking lots 
  are flooded.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 16.2 
  feet on Apr 20 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 8062 3723 8065 3727 8053 3722 8049
          3710 8050                   

$$

VAC071-WVC055-063-089-250654-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0011.170425T0441Z-170426T0600Z/
/GLLV2.1.ER.170425T0441Z.170425T1200Z.170425T1800Z.NO/
654 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the New River At Glen Lyn.
* from after midnight tomorrow until late Tuesday night
* at 7 PM EDT Monday the stage was 13.9 feet...and rising.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet. Moderate flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage tonight after midnight...then 
  continue to rise to near 15.6 feet Tuesday morning. The river 
  is forecast to fall below flood stage early afternoon Tuesday.
* Impact...at 15.0 feet...Low spots along route 649 (Lurich road) 
  upstream from the gage are flooded.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 14.8 
  feet on Apr 21 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3723 8065 3733 8082 3746 8097 3754 8078
          3742 8072 3727 8053         

$$

RAB
170 
WGUS81 KRNK 250350
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
1150 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...West Virginia...
 
  New River At Radford affecting Montgomery...Pulaski and City of 
  Radford Counties 
  New River At Glen Lyn affecting Giles...Mercer...Monroe and Summers 
  Counties 

A slow moving area of low pressure aloft drifting through the 
southeast U.S. has brought several inches of rainfall to the area
during the past several days. Rainfall amounts during the past 
several days have averaged from 2 to 4 inches across this area.
This will continue to result in significant flooding along the
lower end of the Dan River basin.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

&&

VAC121-155-750-251150-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-170425T1800Z/
/RDFV2.2.ER.170424T1559Z.170424T2300Z.170425T1200Z.NO/
1150 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the New River At Radford.
* until Tuesday afternoon. 
* at 11 PM EDT Monday the stage was 16.3 feet...and falling.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet. Moderate flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* The river is expected to continue to fall to below flood stage
  during Tuesday morning.
* Impact...at 16.0 feet...Significant flooding occures in Bissett 
  Park.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 16.2 
  feet on Apr 20 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 8062 3723 8065 3727 8053 3722 8049
          3710 8050                   

$$

VAC071-WVC055-063-089-251150-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0011.170425T0344Z-170426T0520Z/
/GLLV2.1.ER.170425T0057Z.170425T0600Z.170425T1720Z.NO/
1150 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the New River At Glen Lyn.
* until late Tuesday night. 
* at 11 PM EDT Monday the stage was 15.5 feet...and rising.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet. Moderate flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 15.9 feet...just below
  moderate flood during the early morning hours Tuesday. The
  river is forecast to fall below flood stage Tuesday evening.
* Impact...at 15.0 feet...Low spots along route 649 (Lurich road) 
  upstream from the gage are flooded.

&&

LAT...LON 3723 8065 3733 8082 3746 8097 3754 8078
          3742 8072 3727 8053         

$$

RAB
600 
WGUS81 KRNK 250534
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
134 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Virginia...West Virginia...
 
  New River At Radford affecting Montgomery...Pulaski and City of 
  Radford Counties 
  New River At Glen Lyn affecting Giles...Mercer...Monroe and Summers 
  Counties 

Widespread rainfall of 2 to 5 inches has been common across the region
over the past few days as a result of a slow moving upper low drifting
through the southeast states.  As this upper low moves east and northeast
of the region Tuesday and Wednesday, rainfall will diminish and eventually
end. Additional rainfall amounts will mostly be less than one inch across
the area.  The excessive rainfall of the past few days has resulted in 
considerable runoff into area creeks, streams, and rivers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

&&

VAC121-155-750-251330-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-170425T1330Z/
/RDFV2.2.ER.170424T1559Z.170424T2300Z.170425T0730Z.NO/
134 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the New River At Radford.
* until after daybreak this morning. 
* at 1 AM EDT Tuesday the stage was 15.3 feet, and falling.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet. Moderate flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below to below flood stage
  before daybreak this morning.
* Impact...at 16.0 feet...Significant flooding occurs in Bissett 
  Park.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 16.2 
  feet on Apr 20 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 8062 3723 8065 3727 8053 3722 8049
          3710 8050                   

$$

VAC071-WVC055-063-089-251333-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-170426T0600Z/
/GLLV2.1.ER.170425T0057Z.170425T0600Z.170425T1800Z.NO/
134 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  the New River At Glen Lyn.
* until late tonight. 
* at 1 AM EDT Tuesday the stage was 15.6 feet, and nearly steady.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet. Moderate flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 15.9 feet early this morning,
  then begin to fall, falling  below flood stage this afternoon.
* Impact...at 15.0 feet...Low spots along route 649 (Lurich road) 
  upstream from the gage are flooded.

&&

LAT...LON 3723 8065 3733 8082 3746 8097 3754 8078
          3742 8072 3727 8053         

$$

RAB
358 
WGUS81 KRNK 250955
FLSRNK
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 
555 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers
in Virginia...West Virginia...
 
  New River At Radford affecting Montgomery...Pulaski and City of 
  Radford Counties
  New River At Glen Lyn affecting Giles...Mercer...Monroe and 
  Summers Counties
 

 ...Current river stages at both gages have fallen below minor
    flood stage, and a continued further decrease in stages is
    expected. ...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded areas...the water may be much deeper 
than you think.

 Graphical forecast information is available on the internet at 
http://www.weather.gov/rnk (lower case). Click on 'rivers & lakes'.

&&

VAC121-155-750-251025-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-170425T1330Z/
/RDFV2.2.ER.170424T1559Z.170424T2300Z.170425T0817Z.NO/
555 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

the Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the New River At Radford. 
* at 05AM Tuesday the stage was 13.5 feet.

* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Impact...at 14.0 feet...Riverside parking lots are affected
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 14.4 
  feet on Mar 7 2011.

&&

LAT...LON 3708 8062 3723 8065 3727 8053 3722 8049
          3710 8050                   

$$

VAC071-WVC055-063-089-251025-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FL.W.0011.000000T0000Z-170426T0600Z/
/GLLV2.1.ER.170425T0057Z.170425T0515Z.170425T0917Z.NO/
555 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

the Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the New River At Glen Lyn.
* at 05AM Tuesday the stage was 14.9 feet.

* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Impact...at 15.0 feet...Low spots along route 649 (Lurich road) 
  upstream from the gage are flooded.
* Flood history...this crest compares to a previous crest of 14.8 
  feet on Apr 21 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3723 8065 3733 8082 3746 8097 3754 8078
          3742 8072 3727 8053         

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Apr 24, 10:30 AM EDT, 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 24, 10:30 AM EDT, 7 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1030 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Wet weather will persist into Tuesday, as a slow moving area of
Low Pressure moves from the southern Appalachians to along the
South Carolina coast by Tuesday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS of 1030 AM EDT Monday...

Flood watch remain in effect until 8 pm this evening for much of
the forecast area.

Upper low over the southern Appalachians this morning
is slowly moving to southeast and will push of the South
Carolina coast by daybreak Tuesday.

Flooding continues in western portions of Flood watch this
morning, but the good news is that the rain has ended or is
lighter. For this morning, the heaviest rain is located east of
the Blue ridge mountains. Watching on latest radars, convection
to our south lift north. The HRRR and NAM are pushing moisture
northwestward this afternoon into tonight. With a deep southeast to
easterly fetch of moisture into our forecast area, expected
periods of rain to continue in the east. The rain will be heavy
at times. While in the west, rain amounts will be lighter.
Adjusted temperatures with latest surface obs and trended the
late morning into this afternoon towards cooler GLAMP. With
clouds and rain, expected little temperatures changes today.
Adjusted pops and weather for latest radar trends this morning.
Trimmed backed pops and intensities of rain in the west. More
changes later this morning...

As of 400 AM EDT Monday...
No changes to the flood watch, with still some model differences
in placement of highest rainfall threat.No change to Near Term
Forecast. Rain...Heavy at times pretty much sums it up.

Upper low over the southern Appalachians has ground to a halt,
showing only little movement the last 12 hours and is forecast
to move very little today per being cut-off from the mean upper
level flow. Overall projection is for this feature to drift ever
so slowly to the South Carolina coast by daybreak Tuesday. This
will maintain a deep southeast to easterly fetch of moisture
into our forecast area resulting in a persistent rain with
periods of heavy rain. As such will maintain the Flood Watch for
most of our forecast area along and east of the VA/WV border
and into NC.

As the rainfall continues to add up, expect streams to respond
with small stream flood warnings morphing into larger scale
river flood warnings. River Forecast Centers will be doing a lot
of number crunching this morning, so watch for revised river
forecasts and warning headlines.

Rainfall today is expected to be the heaviest along and east of
the Blue Ridge where the southeast upslope wind component will
add orographic lift. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is
likely (in some cases on top of the 2 to 4 inches that has
already occured). Heaviest rain thus far has been along and just
west of I-77 from Tazewell and Marion VA, south into Sparta and
Wilkesboro NC. Focus today is expected to shift farther
northeast into the headwaters of the Dan and Roanoke River
basins.

Temperatures today and tonight will change very little, cool
northeast to easterly low level wind persisting until the low
drifts off the coast Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...

We'll have one more day of cloudy and rainy/showery conditions on
Tuesday. However, trend will be toward above-normal, more springlike
temperatures looking ahead into the midweek period.

Slow-moving, vertically-stacked cyclone should be roughly centered
over the coastal NC/SC border based on general consensus reflected
in 21z SREF mean/00z global model progs. Little significant change
noted in the projected evolution of the cyclone, that being
deamplificaton and gradual northeastward progress. Moisture plume on
the eastern periphery of the cyclone, associated with PWAT values of
up to 1.3" will continue to be drawn back westward, supporting a
continued period of rain particularly for the central Virginia
Piedmont and into the Southside of Virginia. Weak/nebulous forcing
elsewhere across the CWA supports periods of light showers mainly
during the first half of the day. As upper level low approaches the
Chesapeake Bay and deeper moisture plume is shunted
eastward/northeastward later in the day, PoPs then begin a taper to
slight chance/lower Chance range areawide. An additional tenth to
two-tenths of an inch of rain are possible in central Virginia
associated with the most persistent rain band tapering to a few
hundreths from the Blue Ridge foothills west. Thus a continued wet
outlook but the steadiest and heaviest rains will have since ended.
Aside from southeast West Virginia into western Smyth and Tazewell
Counties in Virginia where at least some partial clearing is
anticipated toward afternoon, for many it will continue to be
another relatively dreary day with highs only in the 60s. Greater
clearing anticipated on Tuesday evening with some radiational
cooling under clearing skies in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Trend toward warmer temperatures remains on track starting Wednesday
with building 500 mb heights and mostly sunny skies. Our 850 mb
temperatures steadily rise Wednesday into Wednesday night to values
around +14 to +16C. Much milder temperatures well into the 70s to
low 80s anticipated for Wednesday, with lows Wednesday evening into
the low 50s to around 60. These are some 10 to 15 degrees milder
than 1980-2010 climatological normals.

For Thursday, focus shifts to large-scale troughing evolving across
the central Plains states and the ejection of a deamplifying mid-
level trough embedded in deep south-southwest flow, its associated
surface cold front expected to move from the Ohio Valley to the
foothills of the western Appalachians Thursday. I'm hesitant to
introduce slight to low Chance PoPs any earlier than Thursday
afternoon given the amplified southerly mid-level flow that may act
to slow the cold front down than currently depicted in most model
guidance, and we also are capped to any convection out ahead of
this. Generally expect mostly sunny skies through much of the day,
albeit with increasing cloudiness later in the day toward Thursday
evening. Even warmer conditions anticipated on Thursday; aside from
the higher elevations, many areas stand a good shot at reaching the
low to mid 80s particularly east where clouds will be slower to
advance. These are a couple degrees cooler than MEX MOS guidance
which would argue for some upper 80s values in the Piedmont and
Southside.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

500MB heights rise Friday over the southeast United States but with
an overall deepening upper trough over the central United States. A
deep closed low develops over the Rockies by the end of the week
which will keep much of the east downstream in broad southwest flow.

At the surface a low pressure system tracks into the Great Lakes.
The front with this system stalls in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
brushing our far western counties Thursday night and early Friday.
Thereafter, differences become apparent between the 00z GFS and
ECMWF on how far north and east a warm front associated with the
next developing Plains system extends. Generally maintained
continuity with prior forecast for the upcoming weekend until these
details can be better agreed upon. In any event, temperatures
appear to remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 739 AM EDT Monday...

Continued poor flying conditions through the TAF period mainly
due to low ceilings predominantly into the IFR to MVFR range.
Significant improvement in ceilings not anticipated until
later Tuesday morning. Periods of rain, heavy at times with
MVFR visibilities, will continue to spiral north- northeast.
Coverage and intensity of rain should begin to diminish to a VFR
visibility by tonight. Winds northeast 4-8 kts. By tonight,
strong northeasterly low- level jet combined with inversion from
persistent wedge will lead to low-level wind shear at most
terminals overnight.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Look for gradual improvement from west to east with better
flying wx for by midweek, though another front may bring
scattered MVFR showers/storms toward late Thursday in the
mountains. Drier weather will return for Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

No changes to the flood watch, with still some model differences
in placement of highest rainfall threat. High-res models and
analogs along with pattern recognition favor the southern Blue
Ridge from Roanoke to Boone, east to the piedmont of VA/NC as
those areas which appear to be in line to receive 2-3" through
early Tuesday. This amount of rain combined with the 1 to 2+
inches that has already fallen since Friday should lead to hydro
issues on rivers, as well as smaller creeks and streams.

Looking at the analogs this pattern favors April 5th, 1993, and
March 27th, 1993 which produced some minor to moderate flooding
along portions of the Dan and Roanoke River mainly downstream of
Danville and Altavista. Still will have to see how this sets up
as we had been dry prior to this event.

WPC has kept the risk of excessive rainfall along the Blue
Ridge. Deep convection seems limited, thereby will have to rely
on upslope component to enhance rainfall rates.

Saturated ground may also result in downed trees and rock or
mud slides.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ007-009>018-
     022>024-032>035-043>046-058-059.
NC...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AL/PM
HYDROLOGY...KK/MBS/WP
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 24, 5:41 AM EDT, 4 hours 56 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
541 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>018-022>024-032>035-043>046-058-059-
WVZ042-250945-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-
Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Halifax-
Charlotte-Mercer-
541 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Flooding may continue along some of the main stem rivers Tuesday
and Wednesday, otherwise no hazardous weather is expected at this
time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ019-020-047-WVZ043-044-507-508-250945-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Buckingham-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
Western Greenbrier-
541 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 24, 4:47 AM EDT, 5 hours 50 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
447 AM EDT MON APR 24 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 AM     FLOOD            2 NW FRIES              36.73N 80.99W
04/24/2017                   GRAYSON            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            GRAYSON COUNTY 911 REPORTS EAGLE BOTOM ROAD IN FRIES
            CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

LOCONTO
Local storm report, Apr 24, 4:56 AM EDT, 5 hours 41 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
456 AM EDT MON APR 24 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 AM     FLOOD            3 SSW MOUNT AIRY        36.47N 80.64W
04/24/2017                   SURRY              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            SURRY COUNTY 911 REPORTS A PORTION OF SCOTT BUNKER ROAD
            IN MOUNT AIRY IS UNDERWATER.

&&

LOCONTO
Local storm report, Apr 24, 4:59 AM EDT, 5 hours 38 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
459 AM EDT MON APR 24 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 AM     FLOOD            1 SW ELKIN              36.25N 80.86W
04/24/2017                   SURRY              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            SURRY COUNTY 911 REPORTS THE INTERSECTION OF MEMORIAL
            PARK DRIVE AND JAMES STREET IS UNDER WATER AND CLOSED.

&&

LOCONTO
Local storm report, Apr 24, 5:07 AM EDT, 5 hours 30 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
507 AM EDT MON APR 24 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 AM     FLOOD            5 WNW PILOT MOUNTAIN    36.41N 80.56W
04/24/2017                   SURRY              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            SURRY COUNTY 911 REPORTS THAT RADAR ROAD NEAR
            INTERSECTION OF ARARAT ROAD NEAR ARARAT IS COMPLETELY
            UNDERWATER AND WILL BE CLOSED.

&&

LOCONTO
Local storm report, Apr 24, 5:09 AM EDT, 5 hours 28 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
509 AM EDT MON APR 24 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     FLOOD            1 W RICHLANDS           37.10N 81.82W
04/23/2017                   TAZEWELL           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER FLOODING A BASEMENT CAUSED AN OIL TANK AND A HOT
            WATER HEATER TO OVERTURN.

0545 PM     FLOOD            2 W RICHLANDS           37.09N 81.84W
04/23/2017                   TAZEWELL           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            RTE 67 IS UNDERWATER IN RAVEN

0545 PM     FLOOD            2 W RICHLANDS           37.09N 81.84W
04/23/2017                   TAZEWELL           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            HOME WITH WATER UP TO THE BASEMENT ALONG RTE 67 IN RAVEN

0642 PM     FLOOD            1 NW ROCKY GAP          37.24N 81.11W
04/23/2017                   BLAND              VA   PUBLIC

            WOLF CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS ALONG EAGLES ROAD.

0730 PM     FLOOD            4 E MARION              36.84N 81.42W
04/23/2017                   SMYTH              VA   PUBLIC

            MIDDLE FORK OF HOLSTON RIVER NEAR INTERSECTION OF VA 622
            AND US 11 LEE HIGHWAY...APPROXIMATELY 1 MILE SOUTH OF
            EXIT 50 ON INTERSTATE 81.

0730 PM     FLOOD            4 NNW MARION            36.89N 81.53W
04/23/2017                   SMYTH              VA   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODING REPORTED ON HUNGRY MOTHER DRIVE IN HUNGRY MOTHER
            STATE PARK.

0730 PM     FLOOD            3 NW MARION             36.87N 81.53W
04/23/2017                   SMYTH              VA   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODING ON OLD LAKE ROAD. DRIVER WAS STRANDED IN
            VEHICLE.

0735 PM     FLOOD            4 NW MARION             36.87N 81.56W
04/23/2017                   SMYTH              VA   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODING REPORTED ON WALKERS CREEK ROAD.

0735 PM     FLOOD            4 NNW HUNGRY MOTHER STA 36.94N 81.55W
04/23/2017                   SMYTH              VA   911 CALL CENTER

            NORTH FORK HOLSTON IN SMYTH COUNTY VIRGINIA IS OUT OF ITS
            BANKS.

0735 PM     FLOOD            2 ENE ATKINS            36.88N 81.39W
04/23/2017                   SMYTH              VA   911 CALL CENTER

            MIDDLE FORK HOLSTON RIVER IN SMYTH COUNTY VIRGINIA IS OUT
            OF ITS BANKS.

0735 PM     FLOOD            1 SSW MARION            36.82N 81.50W
04/23/2017                   SMYTH              VA   911 CALL CENTER

            STALEY CREEK IN SMYTH COUNTY OUT OF ITS BANKS.

0835 PM     FLOOD            5 ESE BOONVILLE         36.22N 80.63W
04/23/2017                   YADKIN             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER COVERING NEBO ROAD IN BOONEVILLE.

0840 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 ENE CHILHOWIE         36.82N 81.61W
04/23/2017                   SMYTH              VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FOX VALLEY ROAD FLOODED AND CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER,
            RELAYED BY SMYTH COUNTY OFFICIALS.

0840 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 ENE CHILHOWIE         36.83N 81.62W
04/23/2017                   SMYTH              VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            PORTER VALLEY ROAD FLOODED AND CLOSED.

0840 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N CHILHOWIE           36.86N 81.68W
04/23/2017                   SMYTH              VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            CARLOCK ROAD IN CHILHOWIE IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0840 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW MARION             36.86N 81.53W
04/23/2017                   SMYTH              VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SMYTH COUNTY OFFICIALS REPORT OLD LAKE ROAD IN MARION IS
            CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0840 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SW MARION             36.80N 81.54W
04/23/2017                   SMYTH              VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SCRATCH GRAVEL ROAD FLOODED.

0953 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 E RICHLANDS           37.09N 81.76W
04/23/2017                   TAZEWELL           VA   911 CALL CENTER

            DEPUTY REPORTS THAT WATER IS COMPLETELY COVERING OLD
            KENTUCKY TURNPIKE IN CEDAR BLUFF.

1026 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WSW LYNCHBURG         37.41N 79.17W
04/23/2017  M1.53 INCH       CITY OF LYNCHBURG  VA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEASUREMENT STARTED ON FRIDAY.

0315 AM     FLOOD            2 SSW WINDY GAP         36.09N 81.00W
04/24/2017                   WILKES             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            COUNTY 911 CALL CENTER REPORTS THAT 3 INCHES OF WATER
            COVERED THE 9500 BLOCK OF STATESVILLE ROAD NEAR HUNTING
            CREEK NEAR NORTH WILKESBORO.

0336 AM     FLOOD            5 W RONDA               36.22N 81.02W
04/24/2017                   WILKES             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            WILKES COUNTY 911 CENTER REPORTED THAT A BRIDGE IS UNDER
            WATER AT THE INTERSECTION OF ARBOR GROVE BAPTIST CHURCH
            ROAD AND COTTON MILL ROAD AT THE ROARING RIVER.

0349 AM     FLOOD            4 SE WILBAR             36.23N 81.26W
04/24/2017                   WILKES             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            WILKES COUNTY 911 CENTER REPORTS THAT A BRIDGE IS UNDER
            WATER AT INTERSECTION OF TUMBLING SHOALS ROAD AND NORTH
            OLD NORTH CAROLINA HIGHWAY 16.

0442 AM     FLOOD            2 NW FRIES              36.73N 80.99W
04/24/2017                   GRAYSON            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            GRAYSON COUNTY 911 REPORTS EAGLE BOTOM ROAD IN FRIES
            CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0442 AM     FLOOD            1 SW ELKIN              36.25N 80.86W
04/24/2017                   SURRY              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            SURRY COUNTY 911 REPORTS THE INTERSECTION OF MEMORIAL
            PARK DRIVE AND JAMES STREET IS UNDER WATER AND CLOSED.

0442 AM     FLOOD            5 WNW PILOT MOUNTAIN    36.41N 80.56W
04/24/2017                   SURRY              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            SURRY COUNTY 911 REPORTS THAT RADAR ROAD NEAR
            INTERSECTION OF ARARAT ROAD NEAR ARARAT IS COMPLETELY
            UNDERWATER AND WILL BE CLOSED.

0442 AM     FLOOD            3 SSW MOUNT AIRY        36.47N 80.64W
04/24/2017                   SURRY              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            SURRY COUNTY 911 REPORTS A PORTION OF SCOTT BUNKER ROAD
            IN MOUNT AIRY IS UNDERWATER.

&&

LOCONTO

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 23, 8:25 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningRNKBland, Smyth, Tazewell, Wythe10 hr
Apr 23, 11:25 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryRNKCarroll, Grayson, Wythe12 hr
Apr 24, 1:02 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningRNKPittsylvania, City of Danville3 days
Apr 24, 1:02 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningRNKHalifax4 days
Apr 24, 1:02 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningRNKHalifax5 days
Apr 24, 6:18 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryRNKBland, Grayson, Smyth, Tazewell, Wythe6 hr
Apr 24, 6:31 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryRNKFloyd, Giles, Montgomery, Pulaski, City of Radford12 hr
Apr 24, 6:42 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryRNKPatrick6 hr
Apr 24, 9:40 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryRNKRoanoke, City of Roanoke, City of Salem12 hr
Apr 24, 12:57 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryRNKWythe6 hr
Apr 24, 2:53 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningRNKGiles34 hr
Apr 24, 3:30 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningRNKCharlotte, Halifax4 days
Apr 24, 6:25 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryRNKGiles, Pulaski6 hr
Apr 24, 6:53 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryRNKWythe6 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Virginia, 2017Every river flood warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.