Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
320 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front crosses Saturday morning. Cooler and less humid
under high pressure Sunday. Unsettled weather returns next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 157 PM Friday...

A series of convective complexes will affect the area this
afternoon and tonight. Radar and sfc obs one complex spreading
showers and thunderstorms across southeast OH. This activity
will likely produce heavy rain and gusty winds up to 40 knots
across the northern sections late this afternoon and evening.

Models bring a second storm complex dropping southeast, closer
to the front, moving into an unstable area. Deep layered shear
increases to 50 knots, pwats around 2 inches and sfc CAPE
decreasing to 1000 J/Kg suggest storms could reaching severe
limits prior and after 00Z tonight. The major threat will be
damaging winds. There is a severe thunderstorm watch in effect
until 00Z Saturday.

The actual cold front crosses the area by 12Z Saturday and
exits the eastern mountains by mid morning. Conditions will
improve behind the front with drier airmass and high pressure
building from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Friday...

With the cold front having exited the area, expecting a dry
period before more unsettled weather returns. Temperatures will
remain seasonal, but much drier air filtering in will keep
conditions pleasant. Used a blend of guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 320 PM Friday...

Northwest flow will become more zonal as the overall longwave
pattern de-amplifies across the US. Multiple low pressure
centers well north of the area will continue sending waves of
energy southward, keeping periods of unsettled weather through
the week ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Friday...

Radar images show a thunderstorm complex moving southeast across
northern to central OH. This complex is expected to reach
southeast OH around 20Z, PKB around 21Z and CKB around 21-22Z.
Coded brief IFR conditions along the heavier showers. These
conditions are developing ahead of a cold front under high
instability and enough deep layered shear.

Models suggest there will be another batch of showers and
thunderstorms along the cold front. Although sfc CAPE will
decrease with the FROPA, but deep layered shear increase to
about 50 knots. These conditions bring supercell composite
parameter to about 5, conducive to severe weather. In fact, a
severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for portions of
southeast OH and WV until 00Z Saturday.

Estimated the timing of storms reaching northern sites and
included strong gusty winds. Overall, expect VFR conditions, but
MVFR/LIFR along showers and storms through tonight.

IFR possible in lingering showers/storms and post frontal
stratus into Saturday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Convective winds could be stronger than
expected. Timing and duration of IFR/LIFR conditions may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
Dense valley fog possible Sunday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/DTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ
SHORT TERM...DTC
LONG TERM...DTC
AVIATION...ARJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
131 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086-WVZ007>011-014>020-028>032-039-040-081745-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-
Ritchie-Doddridge-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-
Barbour-
131 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 402 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
and portions of central West Virginia, northern West Virginia,
southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Damaging wind gusts are the most likely threat.

There is also a potential for pockets of heavy rain, or repetitive
storms. This could lead to isolated water issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-WVZ005-006-013-026-027-525-526-081745-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Lincoln-
Boone-Clay-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
131 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southeast Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northeast
West Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms today into tonight.
Damaging wind gusts are the most likely threat.

There is also a potential for pockets of heavy rain, or repetitive
storms. This could lead to isolated water issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

VAZ003-004-WVZ024-025-033-034-515>524-081745-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Mingo-Logan-McDowell-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
131 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of northeast West Virginia, southeast West Virginia and
southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today into tonight.
Damaging wind gusts are the most likely threat.

There is also a potential for pockets of heavy rain, or repetitive
storms. This could lead to isolated water issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
354 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAKE HOPE STATE PARK    39.33N  82.35W
07/07/2017                   VINTON             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN IN THE PARK. POWER OUT AT CAMPGROUND.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1700532

COOPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
355 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0239 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHAWNEE                 39.61N  82.21W
07/07/2017                   PERRY              OH   PUBLIC

            PICTURE ON TWITTER OF LARGE BRANCHES AND WIRES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1700533

MPK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
401 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

OHZ076-072100-
Washington-
401 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL TO CAUSE STREAMS TO REACH BANKFULL...

At 357 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm had quickly produced an inch to
an inch and a half of rainfall near Belpre. This will cause streams
and creeks to quickly reach bankfull. Water problems are possible in
low lying areas and areas of poor drainage. Do not drive your
vehicle through flooded roadways. It takes only a few inches of
swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.

LAT...LON 3934 8155 3934 8156 3927 8157 3927 8160
      3928 8160 3927 8162 3928 8173 3936 8171
      3936 8155
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 240DEG 26KT 3930 8161

25