Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Charleston, WV

656 
WWUS51 KRLX 071849
SVSRLX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
249 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

OHC009-115-127-163-071900-
/O.CON.KRLX.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-170707T1900Z/
Perry OH-Morgan OH-Athens OH-Vinton OH-
249 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN PERRY...MORGAN...NORTHWESTERN ATHENS AND
NORTHEASTERN VINTON COUNTIES...

At 249 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near McConnelsville to near Glouster to near
Nelsonville, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Athens, Nelsonville, Glouster, McConnelsville, Shawnee, Chesterhill,
Chauncey, New Straitsville, Malta, Corning, Buchtel, Stockport,
Jacksonville, Murray City, Trimble, Bristol, Hemlock, Amesville,
Rendville and Burr Oak State Park.

# 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Please report Severe Weather to the National Weather Service by
calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely.

You may also report severe weather by posting your report to the
Charleston West Virginia National Weather Service Facebook Page, or
by using the Twitter Hashtag, NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3975 8164 3973 8164 3938 8195 3931 8233
      3939 8236 3939 8229 3947 8228 3947 8217
      3955 8216 3956 8226 3959 8226 3977 8195
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 315DEG 31KT 3970 8193 3956 8207 3949 8227 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Charleston WV
221 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front crosses Saturday morning. Cooler and less humid
under high pressure Sunday. Unsettled weather returns mid- week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 157 PM Friday...

A series of convective complexes will affect the area this
afternoon and tonight. Radar and sfc obs one complex spreading
showers and thunderstorms across southeast OH. This activity
will likely produce heavy rain and gusty winds up to 40 knots
across the northern sections late this afternoon and evening.

Models bring a second storm complex dropping southeast, closer
to the front, moving into an unstable area. Deep layered shear
increases to 50 knots, pwats around 2 inches and sfc CAPE
decreasing to 1000 J/Kg suggest storms could reaching severe
limits prior and after 00Z tonight. The major threat will be
damaging winds. There is a severe thunderstorm watch in effect
until 00Z Saturday.

The actual cold front crosses the area by 12Z Saturday and
exits the eastern mountains by mid morning. Conditions will
improve behind the front with drier airmass and high pressure
building from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Friday...

The aforementioned cold front associated with an approaching
shortwave axis will move through the southern and eastern
portions of the area during the first half of Saturday.
Lingering low level moisture and favorable low- to mid-level
flow ought to generate scattered showers and perhaps
thundershowers during the afternoon Saturday. Upper level subsidence
and building surface pressure will clear the area out going into
the overnight hours and Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM Friday...

Northwest flow associated with an eastern Canadian upper-level low
will turn more zonal through the period. Fingers of enhanced
vorticity pivoting across the area from the northwest will lead
to periodic upticks in PoPs, the most significant coming
Wednesday. Long range models are favoring the northern portions
of our area for these embedded shots of upper- level energy
with modest mountain enhancement.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Friday...

Radar images show a thunderstorm complex moving southeast across
northern to central OH. This complex is expected to reach
southeast OH around 20Z, PKB around 21Z and CKB around 21-22Z.
Coded brief IFR conditions along the heavier showers. These
conditions are developing ahead of a cold front under high
instability and enough deep layered shear.

Models suggest there will be another batch of showers and
thunderstorms along the cold front. Although sfc CAPE will
decrease with the FROPA, but deep layered shear increase to
about 50 knots. These conditions bring supercell composite
parameter to about 5, conducive to severe weather. In fact, a
severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for portions of
southeast OH and WV until 00Z Saturday.

Estimated the timing of storms reaching northern sites and
included strong gusty winds. Overall, expect VFR conditions, but
MVFR/LIFR along showers and storms through tonight.

IFR possible in lingering showers/storms and post frontal
stratus into Saturday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Convective winds could be stronger than
expected. Timing and duration of IFR/LIFR conditions may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
Dense valley fog possible Sunday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MZ/MC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM...MC
AVIATION...ARJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
131 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086-WVZ007>011-014>020-028>032-039-040-081745-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-
Ritchie-Doddridge-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-
Barbour-
131 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 402 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
and portions of central West Virginia, northern West Virginia,
southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Damaging wind gusts are the most likely threat.

There is also a potential for pockets of heavy rain, or repetitive
storms. This could lead to isolated water issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-WVZ005-006-013-026-027-525-526-081745-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Lincoln-
Boone-Clay-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
131 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southeast Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northeast
West Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms today into tonight.
Damaging wind gusts are the most likely threat.

There is also a potential for pockets of heavy rain, or repetitive
storms. This could lead to isolated water issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

VAZ003-004-WVZ024-025-033-034-515>524-081745-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Mingo-Logan-McDowell-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
131 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of northeast West Virginia, southeast West Virginia and
southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today into tonight.
Damaging wind gusts are the most likely threat.

There is also a potential for pockets of heavy rain, or repetitive
storms. This could lead to isolated water issues.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
207 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

OHZ066-071830-
Perry-
207 PM EDT FRI JUL 7 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN PERRY COUNTY...

At 204 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Thornport, or 8
miles northwest of Somerset, moving southeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm. These winds
may be strong enough to down small limbs or weakly rooted trees.

Locations impacted include...
New Lexington, Somerset, Perry State Forest, Thornport, Harbor Hills,
Thornville, Junction City and Glenford.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3993 8242 3992 8241 3992 8235 3977 8212
      3965 8237 3968 8237 3974 8236 3974 8241
      3983 8240 3984 8247 3993 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 329DEG 37KT 3989 8243

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