Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
205 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and juicy air mass with showers into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 150 PM Tuesday...

Scattered thunderstorms producing rainfall rates of 1 to 2" per
hour across the area causing localized water issues so far.
Maintaining a flash flood watch until 7 pm for the flash flooding
threat. Due to increasing low level lapse rates which have been
increasing DCAPE, some of these cells are also posing a severe
wind threat though this has been largely isolated so far.

Models suggest convection begins to wane this evening and
through the overnight timeframe, but left some mention of
overnight showers given the robust instability that will still
exist after sundown. Storms should begin to fire again bright
and early with a repeat of todays weather. Tomorrow a weak short
wave is modeled to move through, meanwhile the weak upper low
that we had today will not be around, so these two features may
offset for more of the same.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Tuesday...

Models continue to show a very unsettled pattern this period as
we remain in a very warm and moist warm sector, with upper
disturbances moving along the southern edge of a weak westerly
flow aloft over the Ohio Valley. The flow aloft does strengthen
Thursday as a more important upper trough approaches from the
west. This upper feature, and a weak boundary that drops south
into the northern portion of the area Wednesday night, will
help focus this period's best pops and significant QPF during
Wednesday night and Thursday, with possible water problems.
There is actually model consensus for this. Otherwise, there
could be a shower or storm anytime and anywhere in our area
given the quite tropical like atmosphere: and with PW's above
1.5 inches and slow moving storms through Wednesday, these could
also cause local water problems. So, will keep pops in for all
these periods and highlight potential water problems in the
hazardous weather product. On the other hand, severe potential
appears marginal at best given the moist adiabatic soundings.
Temperatures will average above normal, giving a quite humid
feel, but no heat headlines are expected with the unsettled
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

This period begins with a relative break in the action as the
aforementioned upper trough pushes the deeper moisture eastward
out of the area during Friday into Saturday. However, it will
not be strong enough to push a frontal boundary across and scour
out the low level moisture. Thus, low level moisture remains
and cannot rule out a shower of storm. Thereafter, for Saturday
night and Sunday, model consensus has another rather strong
upper trough and associated cool front to bring in a better
chance for showers and storms. Things appear to finally improve
for Monday with cooler and drier air coming in behind the
system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 150 PM Tuesday...

VFR for the most part except in thunderstorms where IFR will
occur. Largely playing TAFs as VFR with vcts to cover tstms.
Storms should dissipate around 00z, slightly later for eastern
sites. With widespread rainfall today and a lack of winds, at
least hinted at overnight MVFR/IFR vsby restrictions. Higher
confidence in EKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Some uncertainty with timing of storm
dissipation this evening. Lingering showers may prevent fog
development overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...

IFR possible in TSRA Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>010-
     013>019-024>029-033-034-515>520.
OH...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMV/26/MC
NEAR TERM...JW/MC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW/MC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1011 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

WVZ011-020-030>032-039-040-521>526-141415-
Tyler-Doddridge-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
1011 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central West
Virginia, northeast West Virginia and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Slow movement of storms with abundant moisture will continue to
enhance the risk for at least localized flooding for much of this
period.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Slow movement of storms with abundant moisture will continue to
enhance the risk for at least localized flooding for much of this
period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>010-
013>019-024>029-033-034-515>520-141415-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-
Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-McDowell-
Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
1011 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia, and portions of central West Virginia,
northern West Virginia, southeast West Virginia, southern West
Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

  Flash Flood Watch.

Slow movement of storms with abundant moisture will continue to
enhance the risk for at least localized flooding for much of this
period.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Slow movement of storms with abundant moisture will continue to
enhance the risk for at least localized flooding for much of this
period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
201 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

VAZ003-004-131830-
Dickenson-Buchanan-
201 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL DICKENSON
AND SOUTHERN BUCHANAN COUNTIES...

At 200 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Davenport,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grundy, Davenport, Stacy, Oakwood and Vansant.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to travel across
flooded roads. Find alternate routes. It takes only a few inches of
swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.

LAT...LON 3704 8213 3712 8228 3737 8196 3732 8187
      3728 8185 3729 8180 3725 8174 3723 8174
      3720 8176 3718 8185 3713 8192 3712 8197
      3713 8199 3711 8202 3707 8202 3705 8204
      3704 8208 3705 8210 3704 8211
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 303DEG 14KT 3714 8205

21

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
201 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

VAZ003-004-131900-
Dickenson-Buchanan-
201 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL DICKENSON
AND SOUTHERN BUCHANAN COUNTIES...

At 201 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Davenport,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grundy, Davenport, Stacy, Oakwood and Vansant.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to travel across
flooded roads. Find alternate routes. It takes only a few inches of
swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.

LAT...LON 3704 8213 3712 8228 3737 8196 3732 8187
      3728 8185 3729 8180 3725 8174 3723 8174
      3720 8176 3718 8185 3713 8192 3712 8197
      3713 8199 3711 8202 3707 8202 3705 8204
      3704 8208 3705 8210 3704 8211
TIME...MOT...LOC 1801Z 303DEG 14KT 3714 8205

21

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