Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
620 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm, high moisture content airmass in place with increasing
showers through the week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 620 AM Tuesday...

Have some convection over the coal fields this morning and
pushing into southeast Ohio as well. Slow movers with heavy rain
for the most part, but the coverage remains isolated.

As of 205 AM Tuesday...

No changes to the overall pattern, which has generally been in
the forecast for a few days now. As advertised, weaknesses in
the upper ridge over the southeastern US are becoming more
evident, and now have an atmosphere conducive to scattered
convection that largely will be dominated diurnally, but not
completely as POPs will continue into the overnight portion of
the forecast. Trying to track particular waves aloft for timing
purposes proves to be very difficult when trying to get
deterministic with the convective forecast. In a tropical type
atmosphere with PWAT values over 1.5 inches, so expecting places
that receive storms to get heavy rain, and with little steering
flow, they will be slow to move out of any particular location.
Staying in the general thunder risk for the near term through
tonight. No major changes to the temperatures today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Tuesday...

Models continue to show a very unsettled pattern this period as
we remain in a very warm and moist warm sector, with upper
disturbances moving along the southern edge of a weak westerly
flow aloft over the Ohio Valley. The flow aloft does strengthen
Thursday as a more important upper trough approaches from the
west. This upper feature, and a weak boundary that drops south
into the northern portion of the area Wednesday night, will
help focus this period's best pops and significant QPF during
Wednesday night and Thursday, with possible water problems.
There is actually model consensus for this. Otherwise, there
could be a shower or storm anytime and anywhere in our area
given the quite tropical like atmosphere: and with PW's above
1.5 inches and slow moving storms through Wednesday, these could
also cause local water problems. So, will keep pops in for all
these periods and highlight potential water problems in the
hazardous weather product. On the other hand, severe potential
appears marginal at best given the moist adiabatic soundings.
Temperatures will average above normal, giving a quite humid
feel, but no heat headlines are expected with the unsettled
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

This period begins with a relative break in the action as the
aforementioned upper trough pushes the deeper moisture eastward
out of the area during Friday into Saturday. However, it will
not be strong enough to push a frontal boundary across and scour
out the low level moisture. Thus, low level moisture remains
and cannot rule out a shower of storm. Thereafter, for Saturday
night and Sunday, model consensus has another rather strong
upper trough and associated cool front to bring in a better
chance for showers and storms. Things appear to finally improve
for Monday with cooler and drier air coming in behind the
system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 620 AM Tuesday...

A rather frustrating TAF forecast today given the atmospheric
setup. Have a weakening upper level ridge and light steering
flow which makes for scattered thunderstorms peaking in coverage
with heating today, but making deterministic TSRA in the TAF
very difficult. Have relied on the the updating high resolution
models for possible timing of convection in the first half of
the TAF, but there will likely be a need for changes along the
way. Storms will produce some wind, but the biggest issue will
be the heavy rain and their slow moving nature.

Depending on rain today, could see more valley fog tonight. This
situation is complicated however with the chances for showers
and storms largely existing through the entire TAF period, and
increasing once again after 06Z tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of TSRA Tuesday is in question. Fog
may not develop tonight. AMDs through the day likely as
convection sets up.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...

IFR possible in TSRA Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
332 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-140745-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
332 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Slow movement of storms with abundant moisture will enhance the risk
for localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Slow movement of storms with abundant moisture will continue to enhance
the risk for at least localized flooding for much of this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
544 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

WVZ024>026-131130-
Boone-Logan-Mingo-
544 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MINGO...LOGAN
AND CENTRAL BOONE COUNTIES...

At 536 AM EDT, strong thunderstorms were over parts of the southern
coal fields of West Virginia. The strongest storms were clustered
around Logan State, or near Logan, moving slowly east at 5 mph.
Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Locations impacted include...
Williamson, Madison, Logan, Chapmanville, Delbarton, Van, Mount
Gay-Shamrock, Chief Logan State, Holden, South Williamson, Red
Jacket, Chattaroy, Matewan, West Logan, Mitchell Heights, Mount Gay,
Seth, Chauncey, Turtle Creek and Myrtle.

This includes Route 119 between mile markers 1 and 35, near mile
marker 38, and between mile markers 40 and 48.

LAT...LON 3762 8216 3762 8218 3765 8218 3765 8219
      3763 8219 3763 8221 3766 8224 3766 8226
      3768 8230 3770 8230 3774 8233 3776 8231
      3776 8233 3778 8232 3779 8235 3815 8168
      3806 8152 3759 8208 3759 8215
TIME...MOT...LOC 0936Z 290DEG 5KT 3793 8196

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
645 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

OHZ083-084-131145-
Jackson-Vinton-
645 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL JACKSON
AND NORTHWESTERN VINTON COUNTIES...

At 635 AM EDT, an area of strong thunderstorms was moving slowly
eastward into western Vinton county and extreme northcentral Jackson
county. The strongest storms were east of Chillicothe. Torrential
rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may cause localized
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Storms
will diminish and shift east of the area by around 730 AM.

Locations impacted include...
Coalton, Byer, Allensville and Eagle Mills.

LAT...LON 3937 8275 3936 8264 3937 8263 3937 8252
      3938 8251 3938 8250 3909 8260 3917 8277
TIME...MOT...LOC 1035Z 293DEG 9KT 3932 8277

05