Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
421 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Rounds of convection are expected this holiday weekend, until a
cold front crosses Sunday, followed by another Monday morning.
Additional cold fronts and showers cross through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 430 PM Saturday...
Atmosphere continues to destabilize with plenty of stronger
storm beginning to develop. Issued a severe thunderstorm watch.

As of 230 PM Saturday...

Cap is finally breaking over the northern tier of counties where
the better clearing has taken place over the last couple of
hours. Still looking at a high CAPE and moderate bulk shear
environment, so expect the activity to continue on the upswing
heading into the late afternoon and evening. So far, the pace
has been more than manageable, but still have a few hours of
heating left and we have already hit the convective temperature.
Have both the hail and wind threat going forward. No changes to
the SPC slight risk for us in terms of severe.

Meanwhile, precipitable water values pushing 1.50in have
warranted the flash flood watch in place over much of the
southern portion of the CWA. Flash flood guidance values still
high, so thresholds for additional rain down in these areas is
low. Repetitive rounds of storms could easily become
troublesome.

Have tailored the POPs for a lull in the activity late this
evening and early tonight, before the front swings back
northward again as a warm front. Pre dawn convection expected to
move north through the area, and back into the slight risk area
for Sunday as the cold front passes again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM Saturday...

During this period, models have the upper trough lifting out of
the Ohio/Tennessee valleys and becoming a closed upper low over
eastern Canada. This will finally push the frontal system out
of our area during Monday and allow high pressure with drier
air to move in later Monday and Monday night. Thus, look for
decreasing rain chances from west to east on Monday, with
temperatures returning to near normal with much lower
humidities.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 345 PM Saturday...

This period features a large upper level low over eastern
Canada with a long wave trough over the eastern United States.
This spells a cooler trend for the Ohio Valley, with
reinforcing cold front dropping across the area through mid
week. Some showers will accompany these fronts, but no heavy
rains are expected. Upper ridging and high pressure will return
for the later part of the work week with dry weather and near
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM Saturday...

Convection/storms will be around through the evening. The
challenge, of course, is determining effects on individual
terminals.

With that said, attempted as best as possible with rapid update
high res models to time POPs on terminals and reflect that in
the TAFs, while trying to not overpopulate with VCTS/CB. Some
TEMPOs used in this case to cover, but can see AMDs being
needed as the storms evolve and move over the next several
hours. Gusty winds and hail are possible.

Expecting a lull during a portion of the overnight, with a warm
front returning and bringing morning convection back into the
fold.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Convection timing likely to vary as storms
evolve. May need fog tonight in brief clearing.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for WVZ005>008-
     013>016-024>027-033-034-515>520.
OH...None.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ102-103-105.
VA...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/26
NEAR TERM...JW/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
416 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

KYZ101-OHZ085>087-WVZ009-017>020-028>032-039-040-521>526-282030-
Greenup-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wood-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-
Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
416 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky, portions of southeast Ohio, and portions of central West
Virginia, northeast West Virginia and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Continued stormy weather with a slight risk of severe storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ066-067-075-076-083-084-WVZ010-011-282030-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Pleasants-Tyler-
416 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio
and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Continued stormy weather with a slight risk of severe storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

KYZ102-103-105-WVZ005>008-013>016-024>027-033-034-515>520-282030-
Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Lincoln-Putnam-
Kanawha-Roane-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-McDowell-Wyoming-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
416 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 277 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky, and portions of central West Virginia, southeast West
Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Continued stormy weather with a slight risk of severe storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ003-004-282030-
Dickenson-Buchanan-
416 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Continued stormy weather with a slight risk of severe storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
301 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

WVZ020-030-031-271945-
Doddridge-Harrison-Lewis-
301 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL DODDRIDGE...NORTH
CENTRAL LEWIS AND SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTIES...

At 301 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over West Union, or
13 miles east of Harrisville, moving east southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
West Union, New Milton, Smithburg, Avon and Blandville.

This includes Route 50 in West Virginia between mile markers 48 and
61.

LAT...LON 3924 8043 3907 8052 3924 8089 3924 8090
      3933 8084
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 287DEG 19KT 3926 8080

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
335 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

OHZ083>086-272000-
Jackson-Meigs-Gallia-Vinton-
335 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MEIGS...NORTH
CENTRAL GALLIA...NORTHEASTERN JACKSON AND SOUTHEASTERN VINTON
COUNTIES...

At 335 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Jackson, moving
east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Wellston, Rio Grande, Coalton, Vinton, Wilkesville,
Adamsville, Salem Center and Dexter.

LAT...LON 3901 8268 3913 8263 3909 8220 3884 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 287DEG 20KT 3905 8258

09

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
353 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEST UNION              39.30N 80.77W
05/27/2017                   DODDRIDGE          WV   911 CALL CENTER

            1 TREE DOWN ON LOUISE AVE. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

MZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
421 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

WVZ030-039-272045-
Upshur-Lewis-
421 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LEWIS AND CENTRAL
UPSHUR COUNTIES...

At 421 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Weston, moving
southeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Buckhannon, Weston, Stonewall Jackson, Jackson Mill, Rock Cave,
Camden, Alexander, Lorentz, Alton, Tallmansville, Overhill, Horner
and French Creek.

This includes Interstate 79 between mile markers 90 and 104.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3903 8066 3915 8056 3899 8006 3875 8023
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 299DEG 30KT 3905 8053

09