Flash Flood Watch 11, NWS Charleston, WV

Athens County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Perry County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Washington County, OH, Barbour County, WV, Braxton County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Mason County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Pocahontas County, WV, Randolph County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Taylor County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Webster County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
922 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Convective complexes shift southward into the area today, ahead
of a cold front that crosses Friday into Friday night. High
pressure brings less humid weather for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 920 AM Thursday...

Issued flash flood watch for northern zones for rounds of
showers and thunderstorms / convective complexes until cold
front arrives Friday night, although most of the activity should
be southwest to northeast oriented lines moving east - complexes
more likely to brush far northern edges of the forecast area.
Also allowed showers and thunderstorms in interior southeast
Ohio to make a little farther headway this morning.

As of 820 AM Thursday...

Showers and thunderstorms will likely make their way into Perry
County this morning, before breaking up. Rest of forecast
largely on track.

As of 645 AM Thursday...

Previous forecast remains on track. No changes necessary.

As of 345 AM Thursday...

The area remains under a weakening high pressure ridge ahead of an
approaching slow cold front. West to southwest flow continues to
bring warm and humid air mass to the area. Models suggest pwats
increase to 2.34 to 2.5 inches and a distinctive tongue of
theta-e exceeding 340K along the approaching front. The front
sinks slowly over our area during the heat time hours bringing
showers and thunderstorms. The NAM suggest sfc CAPE values
exceeding 2000 J/Kg over boundary layer convergence provided by
the front and weak deep layered shear by this afternoon mainly
across the northern portions of WV and southeast OH.

A surface low pressure center through the Great lakes will
drive a front south tonight, increasing chances for showers and
storms to likely. Depending on how much rainfall occurs today, a
flash flood watch may be required for tomorrow.

Above normal hot Summer temperatures expected once again
generally around 92 degrees lowlands ranging to upper 70s higher
elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Thursday...

A cold front will push through on Friday with widespread showers and
thunderstorms. 00Z models show quite a bit of cloud cover around on
Friday, which may help limit instability some. However, with 1000+
J/kg MLCAPE and 30-40kts 0-6km bulk shear some of the storms could
become organized with strong to severe potential. PWATs pool up
around 2 inches ahead of the cold front, indicating heavy rain
potential as well. With the front pushing through, storms should
move along, so the level of concern about water issues will
depend somewhat on how todays convection plays out...ie where
soils are primed.

Models showing some potential for lingering showers into Saturday
morning across the southern mountains, but otherwise incoming high
pressure will make for a fairly dry weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 245 AM Thursday...

Did keep POPs Monday into Monday night with upper trough passing,
but then confidence takes a nose dive. ECMWF shows an upper ridge
moving in by mid week, while GFS has trough -- or even a broad
closed low -- across the Appalachians. Used a consensus/WPC
blend to round out the forecast which gave lingering showers
across the mountains Tuesday, but drier Wednesday into Thursday.
If we were to see showers or storms mid week, best bet would be
across the eastern slopes and mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 645 AM Thursday...

A nearly stationary frontal boundary located just north of the
area will produce showers and storms as it sinks south through
tonight. Convection is expected across the northern half of the
area through tonight. Coded VCTS at PKB and CKB as uncertain if
storms would affect the sites directly. IFR/LIFR conditions
will be possible along heavier showers or storms.

Light to moderate flow will prevail today.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Thunderstorms may arrive in northern WV
earlier than forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
Brief periods of IFR possible in rounds of showers and
thunderstorms into Friday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for WVZ007>011-
     016>020-028>032-039-040-521>526.
OH...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>086.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ

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