Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
245 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach central NC from the northwest this
afternoon, moving across the region this evening. The front
will stall near the coast overnight through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

The mid level shear axis and its accompanying surface front will be
moving across the moiuntains into the northwest Piedmont in the next
couple of hours. Have had ample time to heat up ahead of the system
and expect to see a rapid increase in convective coverage in the
northwest by 20Z, with more widely scattered, diurnally driven
convection popping up in the southeast where deeper moisture is
available. The window of more strongly forced convection will be ~3
hours, with the window reaching the US1 corridor around 22Z and into
the southeast an hour or two later. Downbursts will be the primary
severe threat with stronger storms tapping DCAPE of >1k Joules,
strongest in the southeastern quadrant where the deeper moisture
lies. Weak shear, very high freezing level, and progressive movement
will minimize other severe threats.

The front will move southeast of the area, with convection ending
over all but the southern coastal plain and eastern sandhills, by
around midnight. The front will slow or stall near the southern
coast, maintaining a slight chance of showers in the far southeast
for the remainder of the overnight. Behind the front, clearing will
be progressive from the northwest. Overnight mins will range from
the mid 60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday and Sunday Night/...
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

The surface front will remain stalled in the far southeast on Sunday
into Sunday night and will thus be the main focus for scattered
diurnally driven convection in the afternoon into evening. Outside
of the far southeast, expect mostly sunny skies with tolerable highs
in the 85 to 90 range. Mins Sunday night will be mostly upper 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
As of 230 PM EDT Saturday...

The frontal system will continue to linger south of the forecast
area on Monday. While there is a possibility this boundary will
retrograde to the north, convection should be confined to the
extreme southeastern counties. By Tuesday the upper trough begins to
flatten out and become very zonal. As a result the surface storm
track will stay well to our north as a low pressure system moves
through the Great Lakes and into New England. This pattern will keep
central NC under high pressure with surface boundaries and diurnal
heating being the only real forcing for convection. Temperatures
will rise into the low to possibly mid 90s in most locations Tuesday
Wednesday and Thursday with lows staying in the 70s.

The pattern begins to change on Friday as a second low pressure
system moves across the northeast but then is blocked by high
pressure in the North Atlantic. This will will cause the upper level
trough to deepen once again and push the surface low, and its
attendant front southward. This will increase rain chances for the
end of the week but should help cool off temperatures as cloud cover
increases. Highs by Saturday should moderate back into the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 135 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions will predominate through the 24 hour TAF period.
Diurnally driven convection will be enhanced this afternoon through
evening as a cold front moves southeast across central NC. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms with the potential for producing strong
gusty winds are expected to blossom in the northwest (GSO/INT areas)
from 20-00Z and accompany the front as it moves through. The eastern
TAF sites will have a 3-4 hour window of convection as well, from
~22Z to 03Z.

The threat for scattered convection will diminish after 03Z tonight
as the front moves southeast of the area, where it will stall and
linger near the coast through Sunday. Convection will be focused in
the frontal zone Sunday, perhaps impacting the FAY and RWI sites
during the afternoon/evening.

A drier, more stable air mass expected to settle across central NC
Monday through Wednesday, maintaining a period of VFR conditions.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...mlm
NEAR TERM...mlm
SHORT TERM...mlm
LONG TERM...Ellis
AVIATION...mlm

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
317 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-091930-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
317 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop over the region this afternoon
and persist into the first half of this evening. A few of the storms
will become briefly severe, producing damaging wind gusts. The
threat for severe storms will be greatest across the northwest
Piedmont between 4 PM and 8 PM, and across the remainder of the
Piedmont and the northern coastal plain between 6 PM and 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
623 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

NCZ025-026-041-082315-
Franklin NC-Durham NC-Wake NC-
623 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WAKE...SOUTHEASTERN
DURHAM AND SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 623 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rdu International, or 8 miles northwest of Raleigh, moving east at 25
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and deadly cloud to ground lightning will also be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Wake Forest, Zebulon, Rdu International,
Morrisville, Rolesville, Youngsville and Falls Lake State Rec Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3580 7829 3583 7889 3601 7888 3604 7859
      3602 7855 3604 7854 3607 7829
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 271DEG 23KT 3592 7876

77

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
624 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     HAIL             1 NE ULAH               35.65N 79.82W
07/08/2017  E1.00 INCH       RANDOLPH           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF BUSINESS 220 AND CRESTVIEW
            CHURCH RD. IN ULAH.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
631 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW MARTHA            35.61N 80.05W
07/08/2017                   RANDOLPH           NC   PUBLIC

            TREE UPROOTED AND BLOCKING THE WESTBOUND
            LANE OF HWY 47, JUST EAST OF SAGEBRUSH
            TRAIL. TWO LARGE TREE LIMBS ALSO DOWN ON HWY
            47 BETWEEN SAGEBRUSH TRAIL AND VALLEY FARM
            RD.

&&

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
636 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SE PILOT              35.84N 78.22W
07/08/2017                   NASH               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ON MASSEY ROAD AT HIGHWAY 97.

&&

KC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
638 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

NCZ040-082345-
Chatham NC-
638 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CHATHAM COUNTY
UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

At 638 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of North Carolina Zoo, moving east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Siler City, Goldston, Harpers Crossroads and Hasty.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3573 7954 3570 7921 3557 7923 3557 7924
      3555 7925 3553 7927 3554 7929 3555 7928
      3556 7929 3554 7932 3553 7931 3553 7932
      3552 7934 3552 7955
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 280DEG 17KT 3560 7961

Ellis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
651 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

NCZ038-039-073-074-082345-
Stanly NC-Randolph NC-Davidson NC-Montgomery NC-
651 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON...WESTERN MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN RANDOLPH AND
STANLY COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

At 651 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of showers and
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 12 miles south of
Thomasville to near Midland. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Asheboro, Albemarle, Troy, Badin Lake, North Carolina Zoo, Seagrove,
Plyler, Locust, Norwood and Badin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3551 8018 3558 8021 3560 8023
      3576 8007 3576 7955 3574 7954 3551 7973
      3551 7977 3547 7976 3514 8003 3514 8007
      3519 8011 3515 8018 3517 8020 3516 8023
      3521 8025 3517 8035 3518 8037 3520 8050
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 300DEG 19KT 3571 8007 3526 8049

Ellis