Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
245 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach central NC from the northwest this
afternoon, moving across the region this evening. The front
will stall near the coast overnight through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

The mid level shear axis and its accompanying surface front will be
moving across the moiuntains into the northwest Piedmont in the next
couple of hours. Have had ample time to heat up ahead of the system
and expect to see a rapid increase in convective coverage in the
northwest by 20Z, with more widely scattered, diurnally driven
convection popping up in the southeast where deeper moisture is
available. The window of more strongly forced convection will be ~3
hours, with the window reaching the US1 corridor around 22Z and into
the southeast an hour or two later. Downbursts will be the primary
severe threat with stronger storms tapping DCAPE of >1k Joules,
strongest in the southeastern quadrant where the deeper moisture
lies. Weak shear, very high freezing level, and progressive movement
will minimize other severe threats.

The front will move southeast of the area, with convection ending
over all but the southern coastal plain and eastern sandhills, by
around midnight. The front will slow or stall near the southern
coast, maintaining a slight chance of showers in the far southeast
for the remainder of the overnight. Behind the front, clearing will
be progressive from the northwest. Overnight mins will range from
the mid 60s northwest to the lower 70s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday and Sunday Night/...
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

The surface front will remain stalled in the far southeast on Sunday
into Sunday night and will thus be the main focus for scattered
diurnally driven convection in the afternoon into evening. Outside
of the far southeast, expect mostly sunny skies with tolerable highs
in the 85 to 90 range. Mins Sunday night will be mostly upper 60s to
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...
As of 230 PM EDT Saturday...

The frontal system will continue to linger south of the forecast
area on Monday. While there is a possibility this boundary will
retrograde to the north, convection should be confined to the
extreme southeastern counties. By Tuesday the upper trough begins to
flatten out and become very zonal. As a result the surface storm
track will stay well to our north as a low pressure system moves
through the Great Lakes and into New England. This pattern will keep
central NC under high pressure with surface boundaries and diurnal
heating being the only real forcing for convection. Temperatures
will rise into the low to possibly mid 90s in most locations Tuesday
Wednesday and Thursday with lows staying in the 70s.

The pattern begins to change on Friday as a second low pressure
system moves across the northeast but then is blocked by high
pressure in the North Atlantic. This will will cause the upper level
trough to deepen once again and push the surface low, and its
attendant front southward. This will increase rain chances for the
end of the week but should help cool off temperatures as cloud cover
increases. Highs by Saturday should moderate back into the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 135 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions will predominate through the 24 hour TAF period.
Diurnally driven convection will be enhanced this afternoon through
evening as a cold front moves southeast across central NC. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms with the potential for producing strong
gusty winds are expected to blossom in the northwest (GSO/INT areas)
from 20-00Z and accompany the front as it moves through. The eastern
TAF sites will have a 3-4 hour window of convection as well, from
~22Z to 03Z.

The threat for scattered convection will diminish after 03Z tonight
as the front moves southeast of the area, where it will stall and
linger near the coast through Sunday. Convection will be focused in
the frontal zone Sunday, perhaps impacting the FAY and RWI sites
during the afternoon/evening.

A drier, more stable air mass expected to settle across central NC
Monday through Wednesday, maintaining a period of VFR conditions.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...mlm
NEAR TERM...mlm
SHORT TERM...mlm
LONG TERM...Ellis
AVIATION...mlm

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
317 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-091930-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
317 PM EDT Sat Jul 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop over the region this afternoon
and persist into the first half of this evening. A few of the storms
will become briefly severe, producing damaging wind gusts. The
threat for severe storms will be greatest across the northwest
Piedmont between 4 PM and 8 PM, and across the remainder of the
Piedmont and the northern coastal plain between 6 PM and 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
311 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

NCZ088-089-082015-
Sampson NC-Cumberland NC-
311 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN SAMPSON AND
NORTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 310 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Godwin, or 10 miles east of Fayetteville, moving east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Deadly cloud to ground lightning will also be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Godwin, Eastover, Newton Grove, Wade, Falcon, Hobbton, Spivey's
Corner and Vander.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3523 7881 3525 7867 3525 7862 3527 7860
      3528 7851 3526 7849 3526 7841 3529 7830
      3526 7828 3504 7828 3504 7879
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 267DEG 15KT 3513 7873

Ellis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
330 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

NCZ007-008-024-025-082015-
Durham NC-Person NC-Granville NC-Orange NC-
330 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN PERSON...NORTHEASTERN
ORANGE...CENTRAL GRANVILLE AND NORTHWESTERN DURHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 415
PM EDT...

At 329 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rougemont, or 11 miles south of Roxboro, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and deadly cloud to ground lightning will also be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oxford, Rougemont, Stem, Stovall, Bushy Fork, Moriah, Berea, Surl,
Lake Butner and Lake Michie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
45 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3621 7852 3615 7911 3631 7915 3647 7852
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 254DEG 28KT 3623 7898

77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
340 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

NCZ021-038-082045-
Forsyth NC-Davidson NC-
340 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN FORSYTH AND NORTHERN
DAVIDSON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 340 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bermuda Run, or 9 miles northeast of Mocksville, moving east at 30
mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Deadly cloud to ground lightning will also be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winston-Salem, High Point, Lexington, Thomasville, Clemmons, Bermuda
Run, Arcadia and Welcome.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3607 8004 3582 8005 3585 8039 3587 8039
      3588 8042 3589 8041 3589 8037 3593 8037
      3596 8038 3599 8042 3600 8041 3601 8042
      3603 8045 3605 8046
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 272DEG 24KT 3597 8041

Ellis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

NCZ042-077-088-089-082045-
Johnston NC-Sampson NC-Harnett NC-Cumberland NC-
347 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN SAMPSON...
SOUTHEASTERN HARNETT...NORTH CENTRAL CUMBERLAND AND SOUTH CENTRAL
JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 346 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Godwin, or 14 miles southeast of Lillington, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dunn, Benson, Godwin, Erwin, Newton Grove, Falcon and Spivey's
Corner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3531 7874 3546 7835 3532 7827 3531 7829
      3528 7830 3524 7826 3518 7869
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 257DEG 21KT 3524 7865

Ellis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
419 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

NCZ008-025-026-041-082100-
Franklin NC-Durham NC-Wake NC-Granville NC-
419 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN GRANVILLE...NORTH
CENTRAL WAKE...CENTRAL DURHAM AND NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES
UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 418 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Butner, or 9 miles north of Durham, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and deadly cloud to ground lightning will also be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Durham, Creedmoor, Wake Forest, Butner, Franklinton, Youngsville,
Falls Lake State Rec Area, Purnell, Gorman and Falls Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning
can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3596 7844 3606 7897 3615 7895 3617 7846
      3616 7846 3617 7845 3617 7844 3616 7842
      3617 7841
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 270DEG 25KT 3611 7887

77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
419 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

NCZ078-089-082115-
Sampson NC-Wayne NC-
419 PM EDT SAT JUL 8 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN WAYNE AND NORTHEASTERN
SAMPSON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 419 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Mount Olive, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Deadly cloud to ground lightning will also be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Olive, Seven Springs and Cliffs Of The Neuse State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3518 7783 3516 7788 3515 7789 3517 7793
      3516 7797 3518 7799 3519 7802 3519 7804
      3518 7807 3519 7816 3509 7817 3508 7816
      3506 7816 3509 7832 3524 7831 3528 7783
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 274DEG 24KT 3515 7822

Ellis