Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
927 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak, nearly stationary front will remain over the region tonight.
This front will lift back north as a warm front into VA on Thursday.
A cold front will approach from the NW late Friday and Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 927 PM EDT Wednesday...

Convective outflows have merged over the north-central Piedmont in
the vicinity of Roxboro/Hillsborough. This is where thunderstorms
continue to be severe on an isolated basis. Other thunderstorms
continued developing along the old front and outflows extending SE
into the Goldsboro area. Elsewhere, the boundary layer had been
stabilized in the western and southern Piedmont and in the NE
Coastal Plain. We will carry likely POP for a few hours from Roxboro
to near Goldsboro, with just a slight chance of showers in the NE and
from the Triad to Fayetteville and areas to the west and south.

Otherwise, a very warm and humid evening. Convection should wane
toward midnight. Lows generally 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Thursday and Thursday Night/...
As of 135 PM EDT Wednesday...

An upper level low over the central MS river valley will deamplify
and track slowly east into western TN/KY during the day Thu and the
western slopes of the Appalachians by 12Z Fri. The MSLP gradient
will begin to tighten over the Carolinas as the aforementioned wave
approaches the mountains from the west, with unidirectional WSW/SW
flow throughout the column. With small amplitude waves in SW flow
aloft expected to remain well N/NW of central NC and very little in
the way of low-level convergence, expect dry conditions to prevail
over the majority of central NC. Isolated convection cannot be ruled
out invof the seabreeze in the far SE Coastal Plain Thu afternoon,
nor can it be ruled out in the W/NW Piedmont where isolated mountain
convection may drift downstream via 20-30 knot mid-level flow. With
such weak forcing, convection will be diurnal in nature and should
quickly wane after sunset. Expect highs 90 to 95 with lows Thu night
several degrees warmer than previous nights, in the mid 70s, due to
a strengthening MSLP gradient and persistent southwesterly breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM Wednesday...

The general upper air pattern for this part of the forecast will be
characterized by high pressure over the four corners region of the
U.S. with a trough over the east coast. A series of disturbances
will pass over the region during this time, resulting in some
unsettled weather. The usual diurnal timing of convection, best
chances in the afternoon and evening with a lull overnight, will
prevail.

A shortwave will move over Central NC on Friday, with best chances
for convection will be ahead of the surface boundary associated with
the upper wave as it progresses through the area from the northwest.
More of the same can be expected on Saturday and Saturday night
ahead of an approaching cold front, though the poor diurnal timing
may limit the chances of convection. High in the upper 80s to mid
90s Friday and Saturday, lows in the low to mid 70s Friday nights.

The aforementioned cold front will surge southward into Central NC
Sunday. Latest medium range models bring the front all the way
through Central NC, which would keep the majority of the region dry,
however if it does stall over the area Sunday night into Monday,
convection would be possible in the southeast. As for temperatures,
Lows decrease a bit for Saturday and Sunday nights, mid 60s to low
70s, upper 60s to low 70s Monday and Tuesday nights. Expect highs
Sunday through Tuesday in the mid to upper 80s, upper 80s to around
90 degrees on Wednesday. Chances for precipitation will increase
again for the middle of the week, but there is too much uncertainty
to get into specifics at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday through Monday/...
As of 927 PM EDT Wednesday...

24 hour forecast through 00z/Friday: Generally VFR conditions are
expected this evening and overnight. Isolated thunderstorms will produce
MVFR CIGS and VSBYS for a brief 20-30 minute period this evening
(mainly around KRDU).

Similar conditions are expected Thursday, with some morning
IFR stratus expected between 09z-12z.

Looking Ahead: VFR conditions will prevail through 12Z Fri.
Scattered diurnal convection and early morning low ceilings will
remain possible through Monday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Vincent/Franklin
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Badgett

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
548 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

NCZ021>025-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-061000-
Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-
Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
548 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms may produce locally heavy
rainfall this afternoon and evening. Isolated flash flooding will be
possible, primarily north of Highway 64 in urban areas and other
flood prone locations. Additionally, a few storms could become
severe, with a primary threat of damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Isolated severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall will be
possible Friday afternoon and evening as an upper level disturbance
and attendant low pressure system track east across the Mid-Atlantic.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>011-026>028-061000-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-
548 AM EDT Wed Jul 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon as an upper level disturbance and associated low pressure
system track east in vicinity of the Virginia border. A few storms
could become severe, with a primary threat of damaging winds. A
brief, isolated tornado cannot be entirely ruled out. Locally heavy
rainfall and isolated flash flooding will also be possible,
primarily in urban areas and other flood prone locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Isolated severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall will be
possible Friday afternoon and evening as an upper level disturbance
and attendant low pressure system track east across the Mid-Atlantic.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Vincent

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
828 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

NCZ023-024-060130-
Alamance NC-Orange NC-
828 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

...a line of strong thunderstorms will affect portions of northern
Alamance and Orange Counties Until 930 PM EDT...

At 827 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Camp Springs to
Burlington. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Heavy rain and deadly cloud to ground lightning will also be
possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Burlington, Graham, Hillsborough, Mebane, Elon College, Gibsonville,
Haw River, Swepsonville, Alamance and Carr.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 7915 3624 7895 3602 7899 3602 7948
      3614 7954 3625 7953
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 261DEG 16KT 3632 7955 3610 7944

77

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
838 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW ELLERBE            35.02N 79.82W
07/05/2017                   RICHMOND           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN.

&&

MWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
913 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW UNION RIDGE       36.17N 79.41W
07/05/2017                   ALAMANCE           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE REPORTED DOWN AT 3547 UNION RIDGE RD AT
            839 PM. TIME OF OCCURRENCE ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

&&

MWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
922 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW UNION RIDGE       36.20N 79.40W
07/05/2017                   ALAMANCE           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN ON RIDGE
            RD. NEAR LAKE CAMMACK AT 848 PM. TIME OF
            OCCURRENCE OF 835 PM ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

MWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
923 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW UNION RIDGE       36.17N 79.41W
07/05/2017                   ALAMANCE           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE REPORTED DOWN AT 3547 UNION RIDGE RD AT
            839 PM. TIME OF OCCURRENCE OF 832 PM
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

MWS

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